Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices will commence on 1 December and will end on 28 February.</li>
<li>Nearing the start of the averaging period, we forecast 34 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 2 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.</li>
<li>The upward migrations have outperformed the downward migrations by a lot over the last 3 months. The gap in returns versus the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2 INDEX</a> is a lot smaller.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices will commence on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
Nearing the start of the averaging period, we forecast 34 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 2 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
The upward migrations have outperformed the downward migrations by a lot over the last 3 months. The gap in returns versus the KOSPI2 INDEX is a lot smaller.


KOSPI Size Indices: Lots of Change as Averaging Starts

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 7 August, T'Way Air (091810 KS) announced a large scale capital raise plan worth 200 billion won, representing 49% of its current market cap (409 billion won).</li>
<li>This capital raise plan will include a third-party allocation worth 110 billion won based on the market price without discount. It will also issue CB/BW worth 90 billion won</li>
<li>We maintain Negative on T'Way Air. The capital raise of 200 billion won is likely to be dilutive to existing shareholders and its valuations remain high relative to its peers.</li>
</ul>


On 7 August, T'Way Air (091810 KS) announced a large scale capital raise plan worth 200 billion won, representing 49% of its current market cap (409 billion won).
This capital raise plan will include a third-party allocation worth 110 billion won based on the market price without discount. It will also issue CB/BW worth 90 billion won
We maintain Negative on T'Way Air. The capital raise of 200 billion won is likely to be dilutive to existing shareholders and its valuations remain high relative to its peers.


T'Way Air - Capital Raise Plan of 200 Billion Won (49% of Market Cap)

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After the market close on 17 February, it was announced that the Daemyung Sono Group is  close to acquiring the controlling stake in T'Way Air (091810 KS) from Yelimdang.</li>
<li>As the negotiations between the two sides have come to a near agreement, Daemyung Sono is expected to be able to appoint nine directors at the next upcoming AGM.</li>
<li>Typically in cases like this in Korea, the near term impact would be decline in share prices of T'Way Air and T'Way Holdings due to lack of an M&amp;A play.</li>
</ul>


After the market close on 17 February, it was announced that the Daemyung Sono Group is  close to acquiring the controlling stake in T'Way Air (091810 KS) from Yelimdang.
As the negotiations between the two sides have come to a near agreement, Daemyung Sono is expected to be able to appoint nine directors at the next upcoming AGM.
Typically in cases like this in Korea, the near term impact would be decline in share prices of T'Way Air and T'Way Holdings due to lack of an M&amp;A play.


Daemyung Sono Group: Close to Acquiring the Controlling Stake in T'Way Air

<ul>
<li>In the past two trading days, share prices of T'Way Air (091810 KS) and T'Way Holdings (004870 KS) are down 16.4% and 14.1%, respectively.</li>
<li>According to Hankyung daily, Daemyung Sono Group Chairman Seo may choose to wage a public opinion war, instead of purchasing additional shares.  </li>
<li>If Daemyung Sono Group is unable to take over the management control of T'Way Air using this method, then a potential tender offer of T'Way Air is possible later on. </li>
</ul>


In the past two trading days, share prices of T'Way Air (091810 KS) and T'Way Holdings (004870 KS) are down 16.4% and 14.1%, respectively.
According to Hankyung daily, Daemyung Sono Group Chairman Seo may choose to wage a public opinion war, instead of purchasing additional shares.  
If Daemyung Sono Group is unable to take over the management control of T'Way Air using this method, then a potential tender offer of T'Way Air is possible later on. 


Daemyung Sono Group May Wage a Public Opinion War for T'Way Air

<ul>
<li>An M&amp;A fight for T'Way Air has officially erupted as Daemyung Sono Group sent a letter to the current management requesting several management improvement measures including resignation of existing management.</li>
<li>Currently, T'Way Air's largest shareholders are T'Way Holdings and Yelimdang which combined have 30.07% stake in T'Way Air. Daemyung Sono is the second largest shareholder with a 26.77% stake.</li>
<li>From Daemyung Sono Chairman Seo Jun-Hyeok perspective, entering the aviation industry is attractive because it can create synergy with existing hotels and resort businesses.</li>
</ul>


An M&amp;A fight for T'Way Air has officially erupted as Daemyung Sono Group sent a letter to the current management requesting several management improvement measures including resignation of existing management.
Currently, T'Way Air's largest shareholders are T'Way Holdings and Yelimdang which combined have 30.07% stake in T'Way Air. Daemyung Sono is the second largest shareholder with a 26.77% stake.
From Daemyung Sono Chairman Seo Jun-Hyeok perspective, entering the aviation industry is attractive because it can create synergy with existing hotels and resort businesses.


South Korea

Jeju Air Co., Ltd. operates as an airline carrier in the aviation industry.   The Company provides air transportation services for passengers, baggage, and cargo within South Korea, Japan, and Southeastern Asian countries.

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Jeju Air (089590 KS)

KOSPI Size Indices: Lots of Change as Averaging Starts

There could be 34 migrations for the KOSPI Size Indices in March. Among new listings, there could be 1 LargeCap add, 2 MidCap adds and 2 SmallCap...

Brian Freitas

T'Way Air - Capital Raise Plan of 200 Billion Won (49% of Market Cap)

On 7 August, T'Way Air (091810 KS) announced a large scale capital raise plan worth 200 billion won, representing 49% of its current market cap...

Douglas Kim

Daemyung Sono Group: Close to Acquiring the Controlling Stake in T'Way Air

Daemyung Sono Group announced that it signed a stock purchase agreement to acquire a 46.26% stake in T'way Holdings held by Yearimdang Publishing...

Douglas Kim

Daemyung Sono Group May Wage a Public Opinion War for T'Way Air

According to Hankyung daily, Daemyung Sono Group Chairman Seo may choose to wage a public opinion war, instead of purchasing additional shares.

Douglas Kim

A Hostile M&A Fight for T'Way Air

An M&A fight for T'Way Air has officially erupted as Daemyung Sono Group sent a letter to the current management requesting several management...

Douglas Kim

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