Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Silver has rallied nearly 40% over the past year, outpacing other precious metals on the back of record industrial demand and renewed investor flows.</li>
<li>Persistent structural deficits, led by solar PV and EVs, point to a supportive multi-year backdrop even if investment flows remain volatile.</li>
<li>For Japan, Dowa Holdings’ 30% stake in Los Gatos offers the only meaningful listed exposure to primary silver mining, with earnings leverage that is underappreciated by the market.</li>
</ul>


Silver has rallied nearly 40% over the past year, outpacing other precious metals on the back of record industrial demand and renewed investor flows.
Persistent structural deficits, led by solar PV and EVs, point to a supportive multi-year backdrop even if investment flows remain volatile.
For Japan, Dowa Holdings’ 30% stake in Los Gatos offers the only meaningful listed exposure to primary silver mining, with earnings leverage that is underappreciated by the market.


Silver in Focus: Global Deficits, Japan’s Reliance, and Dowa’s Hidden Leverage

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Once driven by domestic infrastructure and shipbuilding, Japan’s steel industry is now navigating aging demand and declining consumption by pivoting to exports and specialty steel.</li>
<li>Japanese steelmakers are embracing high-grade flat steel exports, electric arc furnace (EAF) transitions, and decarbonization-linked innovation — while deepening select offshore bets like AM/NS India and JSW Steel.</li>
<li>JFE offers deep value via JSW exposure; Kobe adds margin stability through EAF and engineering, while Nippon faces capex strain and U.S. Steel integration risk.</li>
</ul>


Once driven by domestic infrastructure and shipbuilding, Japan’s steel industry is now navigating aging demand and declining consumption by pivoting to exports and specialty steel.
Japanese steelmakers are embracing high-grade flat steel exports, electric arc furnace (EAF) transitions, and decarbonization-linked innovation — while deepening select offshore bets like AM/NS India and JSW Steel.
JFE offers deep value via JSW exposure; Kobe adds margin stability through EAF and engineering, while Nippon faces capex strain and U.S. Steel integration risk.


Japan Steel: From Domestic Giant to Export-Driven Value Play

<ul>
<li>Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.</li>
<li>Top picks: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24628:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-4527fb98-bb5d-4d74-91fe-66f9c0224eb3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lloyds-metals-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15467:1" rel="noopener">Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paladin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10117:1" rel="noopener">Paladin Energy (PDN AU)</a> </li>
<li>Top shorts: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> </li>
</ul>


Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.
Top picks: Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN), Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN) , Paladin Energy (PDN AU) 
Top shorts: Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) , Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) 


Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently seven pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and four sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently seven pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and four sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (21 Sep 2026)

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
 Highlights: Currently ten pair trade opportunities persist across four markets and six sectors. 
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

 Highlights: Currently ten pair trade opportunities persist across four markets and six sectors. 


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (14 Sep 2026)

Japan

JFE Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which was established through the merger of NKK Corp and Kawasaki Steel Corp.  The Company manages and conducts its subsidiaries' business, which is steel production and integrated engineering services.

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JFE Holdings (5411 JP)

Silver in Focus: Global Deficits, Japan’s Reliance, and Dowa’s Hidden Leverage

Silver's rally driven by record industrial demand and investor flows, with Japan's Dowa Holdings offering unique exposure to primary silver mining.

Rahul Jain

Japan Steel: From Domestic Giant to Export-Driven Value Play

Japan's steel industry shifts focus to exports and specialty steel amid declining domestic demand, embracing innovation and offshore investments...

Rahul Jain

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Rahul Jain

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (21 Sep 2026)

Discover seven pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (14 Sep 2026)

Discover ten pair trade opportunities across four markets and six sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Silver in Focus: Global Deficits, Japan’s Reliance, and Dowa’s Hidden Leverage

​Silver's rally driven by record industrial demand and investor flows, with Japan's Dowa Holdings offering unique exposure to primary silver mining.

Rahul Jain

Japan Steel: From Domestic Giant to Export-Driven Value Play

​Japan's steel industry shifts focus to exports and specialty steel amid declining domestic demand, embracing innovation and offshore investments...

Rahul Jain

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

​Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Rahul Jain

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (21 Sep 2026)

​Discover seven pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (14 Sep 2026)

​Discover ten pair trade opportunities across four markets and six sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Silver's rally driven by record industrial demand and investor flows, with Japan's Dowa Holdings offering unique exposure to primary silver mining.

Japan's steel industry shifts focus to exports and specialty steel amid declining domestic demand, embracing innovation and offshore investments...

Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Discover seven pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Discover ten pair trade opportunities across four markets and six sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.