Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110</li>
<li>Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.</li>
<li>This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials</li>
</ul>


As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110
Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.
This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials


Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.5% with most Sector in the Red; Residential Construction STRONG; China Rate Cut disappoints; TESLA +5.3% bags Rivian for Charging Network.</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Blackrock's Fink say Japan benefitting from China Flight; Labor market loosing as JP workers shying away from liftime employment; Yamato HD exits mail delivery</li>
<li>NUGGET. Nintendo(7974) - Doing a Disney..using its IP…Now Mario out, Rumour are "Legend of Zelda" Movie in the works.. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.5% with most Sector in the Red; Residential Construction STRONG; China Rate Cut disappoints; TESLA +5.3% bags Rivian for Charging Network.
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Blackrock's Fink say Japan benefitting from China Flight; Labor market loosing as JP workers shying away from liftime employment; Yamato HD exits mail delivery
NUGGET. Nintendo(7974) - Doing a Disney..using its IP…Now Mario out, Rumour are "Legend of Zelda" Movie in the works.. 


Ohayo Japan| US Back to an Equity Sell Off; NUGGET: Nintendo(7974) - Set to Track Disney's Success ?

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX flat on the day as catalysts lacking; Tech down ahead Wed's  CPI as momentum builds for rate hike;  Broad strength in cyclicals - underlying economic strength?</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY  133.7;Buffet says he looking to raise Japan equity weighting; MHI awarded big defense contract for missiles: Denso gears up for EV transition </li>
<li>NUGGET.  Toyota gets serious in BEVs - we are excited about the prospects for the supply chain, particularly Denso and Panasonic </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX flat on the day as catalysts lacking; Tech down ahead Wed's  CPI as momentum builds for rate hike;  Broad strength in cyclicals - underlying economic strength?
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY  133.7;Buffet says he looking to raise Japan equity weighting; MHI awarded big defense contract for missiles: Denso gears up for EV transition 
NUGGET.  Toyota gets serious in BEVs - we are excited about the prospects for the supply chain, particularly Denso and Panasonic 


Good Morning Japan |No Catalysts-Equities Flat; NUGGET - Toyota Gets Serious, Watch the Supply Chain

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  Shares of US regional banks crash; Flight to safe haven assets as US2Yr yield crash; Also, strong Yen bid; Nomura expects Fed to CUT next (now that's original).</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -2.2% vs Cash; USDJPY strengthens to 133.21; Masatoshi Ito - founder of Ito-Yokado dies at 98; Nidec -Leadership Transition take shape; Japan Post Bank priced; Komatsu upgrade</li>
<li>NUGGET.  JAL EXCEEDS union demands with wage settlement.  Inflation may act as the slayer of inefficient companies as weaker companies will just not be able to keep up.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  Shares of US regional banks crash; Flight to safe haven assets as US2Yr yield crash; Also, strong Yen bid; Nomura expects Fed to CUT next (now that's original).
JAPAN. NKY Futs -2.2% vs Cash; USDJPY strengthens to 133.21; Masatoshi Ito - founder of Ito-Yokado dies at 98; Nidec -Leadership Transition take shape; Japan Post Bank priced; Komatsu upgrade
NUGGET.  JAL EXCEEDS union demands with wage settlement.  Inflation may act as the slayer of inefficient companies as weaker companies will just not be able to keep up.


Good Morning Japan |US Bank Turmoil Spur Safe Haven Bid; NUGGET:Japan Wage Hikes - Something Special

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  Powell Testifies. 50bp hike more likely  as inflation higher than expected. Sparks repricing in markets: US Equities hit, UST dumped, USD rises - Choas all round. </li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY weakens to 137.1 as Powell tesimony digested;  H3 failure-blow to JP space hopes; "My Number" Use expanded;  Dentsu UK M&amp;A; Many Rating D/Gs </li>
<li>NUGGET. Carbon Capture is a key part of the decarbonization mix; Expect significant spend locally and globally. We look at the opportunity and the firms likely to benefit.  </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  Powell Testifies. 50bp hike more likely  as inflation higher than expected. Sparks repricing in markets: US Equities hit, UST dumped, USD rises - Choas all round. 
JAPAN.  NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY weakens to 137.1 as Powell tesimony digested;  H3 failure-blow to JP space hopes; "My Number" Use expanded;  Dentsu UK M&amp;A; Many Rating D/Gs 
NUGGET. Carbon Capture is a key part of the decarbonization mix; Expect significant spend locally and globally. We look at the opportunity and the firms likely to benefit.  


Good Morning Japan |Powell Dishes Bitter Pill - Sparks Cross Market Chaos; NUGGET: CCUS Opportunity

Japan

JFE Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which was established through the merger of NKK Corp and Kawasaki Steel Corp.  The Company manages and conducts its subsidiaries' business, which is steel production and integrated engineering services.

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JFE Holdings (5411 JP)

Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

We remain bullish on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93, targeting $110; Bullish developments continue: $DXY below $101.50, small...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan| US Back to an Equity Sell Off; NUGGET: Nintendo(7974) - Set to Track Disney's Success ?

US Back - in the Red despite strong housing; NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Blackrock's Fink say Japan benefitting from China Flight; Yamato HD exits mail...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |No Catalysts-Equities Flat; NUGGET - Toyota Gets Serious, Watch the Supply Chain

While the US market looks for direction, in Japan, some positive headlines with help underline our bullish outlook. First, Warren Buffet in an...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |US Bank Turmoil Spur Safe Haven Bid; NUGGET:Japan Wage Hikes - Something Special

NKY Futures are set for more losses at the open, driven by the safe-haven bid for the yen. Surely, this macro-driven sell-off is a buying opportunity?

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |Powell Dishes Bitter Pill - Sparks Cross Market Chaos; NUGGET: CCUS Opportunity

REALITY CHECK FROM POWELL; USDJPY weakens to 137.1 as Powell tesimony digested; H3 failure-blow to JP space hopes; "My Number" Use expanded; ...

Mark Chadwick

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