'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/867/original/2020-11-25_11-14-58.png?1606270511" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173867"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>FOUR QUADRANTS</strong> - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-</p><ul>
<li>
<strong>CONTRARIAN BUYS</strong> - Companies with<strong> low</strong> Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>CONTRARIAN SELLS</strong> - Companies with <strong>high</strong> Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>TURNAROUNDS</strong> - Companies with<strong> high</strong> Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; <strong>low</strong> Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>EX-GROWTH</strong> - Companies with <strong>low</strong> Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; <strong>high</strong> Relative Price Scores</li>
</ul><p>In the two <strong>Contrarian</strong> quadrants, companies can remain outliers for extended periods, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jfe-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:210:1" rel="noopener">JFE (5411 JP)</a>  in Buys, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec (6920 JP)</a> in Sells. The other quadrants see much more 'turnover' and van can offer profitable trading opportunities such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lixil-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:454:1" rel="noopener">Lixil(5938 JP)</a> in <strong>Turnarounds,</strong> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ariake-japan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4908:1" rel="noopener">Ariake Japan (2815 JP)</a> in the <strong>Ex-Growth</strong> quadrant.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/896/original/2020-11-25_12-25-57.png?1606274769" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173896"></figure><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/903/original/2020-11-25_12-56-49.png?1606276623" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173903"></figure></section><p><strong><a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/7b61jl02dh0pzno/2020-11-25_12-43-55.png?dl=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CONTRARIAN BUYS</a> -</strong> In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we shall review the current 'crop' of Contrarian Buys for potential opportunities. Subsequent Insights in this mini-series will look into the other three quadrants before concluding with one '<em><strong>2021 High Conviction</strong></em>' recommendation. </p></section>

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsFOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-

CONTRARIAN BUYS - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

CONTRARIAN SELLS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

TURNAROUNDS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; low Relative Price Scores

EX-GROWTH - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; high Relative Price Scores
In the two Contrarian quadrants, companies can remain outliers for extended periods, such as JFE (5411 JP)  in Buys, Lasertec (6920 JP) in Sells. The other quadrants see much more 'turnover' and van can offer profitable trading opportunities such as Lixil(5938 JP) in Turnarounds, and Ariake Japan (2815 JP) in the Ex-Growth quadrant.CONTRARIAN BUYS - In the DETAIL below, we shall review the current 'crop' of Contrarian Buys for potential opportunities. Subsequent Insights in this mini-series will look into the other three quadrants before concluding with one '2021 High Conviction' recommendation. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Contrarian Buys

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>Monday's best and worst pairing is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamaha-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7411:1" rel="noopener">Yamaha Motor (7272 JP)</a> (already <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yamaha-motor-what-a-turnaround" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45102" rel="noopener">covered</a> by Mio) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jfe-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:210:1" rel="noopener">JFE (5411 JP)</a>.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/170/418/original/2020-11-10_06-23-38.png?1604957031" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="170418"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/170/420/original/2020-11-10_06-24-52.png?1604957104" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="170420"></figure></section>
</div><div><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>203 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 45% Positive / 7% Neutral / 48% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -0.7 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -9.4% Quarter YoY / -5.4% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -2.1 ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 17%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>90 Annual • 20 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 49% Positive / 7% Neutral / 44% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 40% Positive / 0% Neutral / 60% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 0.0 points</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •
Monday's best and worst pairing is Yamaha Motor (7272 JP) (already covered by Mio) and JFE (5411 JP).

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS203 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 45% Positive / 7% Neutral / 48% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -0.7 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -9.4% Quarter YoY / -5.4% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.1 ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 17%
90 Annual • 20 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 49% Positive / 7% Neutral / 44% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 40% Positive / 0% Neutral / 60% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: 0.0 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​09 -Hamamatsu, Secom, Sumitomo Metal Min

<p><strong>FROM OPERATING TO FINANCING CASH FLOWS</strong> -  Having examined Operating Cash Flow in our previous <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-stress-tests-part-2-operating-cash-flow-accruals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40321" rel="noopener">Insight</a>, we shall look into the 'stressors' between Operating Cash Flow and Financing Cash Flow. In our reformulated Cash Flow Statements, cash flows relating to operating activities are divided into Operating Cash Flows and Investing Cash Flows, which comprise Fixed Asset and Inventory Cash Flows.  Free Cash Flow is the sum of Operating Cash Flow, Fixed Asset Cash Flow and Inventory Cash Flow. Inventories are not included in Operating Cash Flow as they are considered discretionary, are often related to Fixed asset Cash Flows, and can be highly seasonal.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/141/225/original/2020-06-21_08-34-07.png?1592698079" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="141225"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>JAPAN WAS FCF POSITIVE IN Q4..</strong> - Despite the decline in Operating Cash Flow in the last quarter (the final quarter of the Fiscal Year for most Japanese companies), Investing Cash Flow was more positive than in any quarter since FY2016-Q4, which also coincided with the last business cycle low. As a result, the aggregate Free Cash Flow for the 3,639 listed non-financial companies (excluding<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener"> Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>) was an impressive ¥8.4 trillion or an annualised yield of 6.4%.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/141/223/original/2020-06-21_08-51-12.png?1592697088" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="141223"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>..AS CAPEX WAS PUT ON HOLD</strong> - Seasonally Japanese companies capital expenditures are higher in the second half of the fiscal year- in FY2019, ¥21trillion was added to Operating Assets. In contrast, FY2020 saw a 79% decline in capex to ¥4.4 trillion, all of which was spent in the third quarter. This decline is the most substantial second-half quarter-on-quarter contraction in fixed asset outflows since 2009.   </p><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we shall highlight those 'outlier' large-cap companies which are either end of the capex, inventory and Free Cash Flow tables, and focus on those with the greatest intimations of business 'stress'. We have excluded the Real Estate Sector from this analysis due to the inherent volatility of fixed assets and inventory cash flows fo these companies.</p>

FROM OPERATING TO FINANCING CASH FLOWS -  Having examined Operating Cash Flow in our previous Insight, we shall look into the 'stressors' between Operating Cash Flow and Financing Cash Flow. In our reformulated Cash Flow Statements, cash flows relating to operating activities are divided into Operating Cash Flows and Investing Cash Flows, which comprise Fixed Asset and Inventory Cash Flows.  Free Cash Flow is the sum of Operating Cash Flow, Fixed Asset Cash Flow and Inventory Cash Flow. Inventories are not included in Operating Cash Flow as they are considered discretionary, are often related to Fixed asset Cash Flows, and can be highly seasonal.Source: Japan AnalyticsJAPAN WAS FCF POSITIVE IN Q4.. - Despite the decline in Operating Cash Flow in the last quarter (the final quarter of the Fiscal Year for most Japanese companies), Investing Cash Flow was more positive than in any quarter since FY2016-Q4, which also coincided with the last business cycle low. As a result, the aggregate Free Cash Flow for the 3,639 listed non-financial companies (excluding Rakuten (4755 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Sony (6758 JP)) was an impressive ¥8.4 trillion or an annualised yield of 6.4%.Source: Japan Analytics..AS CAPEX WAS PUT ON HOLD - Seasonally Japanese companies capital expenditures are higher in the second half of the fiscal year- in FY2019, ¥21trillion was added to Operating Assets. In contrast, FY2020 saw a 79% decline in capex to ¥4.4 trillion, all of which was spent in the third quarter. This decline is the most substantial second-half quarter-on-quarter contraction in fixed asset outflows since 2009.   In the DETAIL below, we shall highlight those 'outlier' large-cap companies which are either end of the capex, inventory and Free Cash Flow tables, and focus on those with the greatest intimations of business 'stress'. We have excluded the Real Estate Sector from this analysis due to the inherent volatility of fixed assets and inventory cash flows fo these companies.

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 3 - Inventory, Fixed Asset & Free Cash Flows

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/125/157/original/File%202020-03-28%2015%2042%2009.jpeg?1585378270" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="125157"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Mainichi Photography</div><p><strong>STAY AT HOME (PLEASE)</strong> - With the 2020 Olympics now destined for 2021, the authorities can focus on containing Covid-19 which continues to spread in Tokyo.  Governor Koike and the Governors of the surrounding prefectures have responded to the recent growth in cases in the metropolis by requesting that citizens stay at home this weekend. Parks and many shops and restaurants have closed, and inclement weather (it is snowing across most of the Kanto plain this Sunday) has resulted in a high degree of compliance.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/125/263/original/File%202020-03-29%206%2035%2050.jpeg?1585431441" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="125263"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • aatishb.com</div><p><strong>CATCHING UP</strong> - Without the implementation of the measures adopted in China and South Korea, Japan is now moving more in line with the global trends shown above in terms of log-scale incremental rate of change. Sixty-three new cases were reported on Saturday, the largest single-day total to date. Over half of the new cases were in the 'Longevity General Hospital' in Taito Ward, taking the total for the capital to 362. For Japan as a whole, the total one cases for Saturday was 194 a 68% one-day increase. Covid-19 fatalities increased by six to 53.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/125/264/original/File%202020-03-29%206%2037%2003.jpeg?1585431468" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="125264"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • aatishb.com</div><p><strong>THE SWEDISH MODEL </strong>- PM Abe is concerned that a full societal 'lockdown' would damage the economy and has yet to invoke his newly-minted emergency powers - which, in any case, do not provide for such a measure. For now, Japan is following Sweden's social experiment of permitting life to go on as usual as much as possible. Both countries have been criticised for their 'novel' approach; however, their trajectories are noticeably different from the US and Italy. Let us hope than Japan's remarkably low-incidence of, and CFR from, Covid-19 infection can hold.</p><p><strong>CORONA 'SHOKKU'</strong> - At a press conference yesterday Abe pledged to introduce an economic package that would exceed Japan's response to the "Lehman Shock" with a particular focus on SMEs and distressed households. The details are to be announced in the next ten days.</p><p><strong>RATIONING BOOK</strong> - In other news, Kinokuniya bookstore in Tokyo is limiting purchases of the now-existential necessity Camus' <em>The Plague</em>' to one per person.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/125/256/original/2020-03-28_08-20-51.png?1585429894" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="125256"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>PULLING OUT ALL THE STOPS</strong> - On Thursday the Bank of Japan's ETF purchase programme constituted 6% of Value Traded as the total interventions this month now total <strong>¥1.3 trillion</strong> has recovered <strong>18%</strong> from the last weeks' low and is 'only' <strong>16%</strong> below the December high. Our Results Score is now negative, and the Forecast/Revision Score will follow next week. With over 3 billion people around the world in some form of social isolation, we expect both of our Scores to reach new five year lows by May and for equities to follow, despite Governor Kuroda's machinations.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/125/260/original/2020-03-29_06-20-04.png?1585430434" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="125260"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>NO MAN'S LAND</strong> - As Aggregate TTM and Forecast Operating and Net Income head lower, the last week's bear-market-bounce has taken multiples back towards the long-term averages. With 3 quarters of results before a possible cycle low, Japanese equities are stuck in no man's land, neither overvalued not undervalued.  </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/125/158/original/2020-03-28_15-56-17.png?1585378601" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="125158"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/125/305/original/2020-03-29_08-40-46.png?1585438866" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="125305"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>FRIDAY 27th MARCH</strong> - Friday saw six companies reporting results, of which two - <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jastec-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9201:1" rel="noopener">Jastec (9717 JP)</a></strong>- and<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/niitaka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4911:1" rel="noopener">Niitaka (4465 JP)</a></strong> had positive scores. Fifteen companies revised their forecasts, and one - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/imv-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14159:1" rel="noopener"><strong>IMV (7760 JP)</strong></a> withdrew its forecast entirely. In terms of our scoring system, the ratio of positive to negative 'scores' was <strong>6:10</strong>, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jfe-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:210:1" rel="noopener"><strong>JFE (5411 JP)</strong></a> being the largest negative-scoring company. High-tech lamp maker <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ushio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6640:1" rel="noopener">Ushio (6925 JP)</a></strong> cut its forecast for Operating Income to ¥6b - which would be the lowest outcome since<strong> 1994</strong> and implies a fourth-quarter operating loss of <strong>¥0.35b</strong>.<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a></strong>announced that its forecasts made in February are now likely to be revised down and that the company may not be able to release FY2020 earnings as scheduled on 30th April due to delays in accounting procedures. <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a></strong>has shut down two plants in Japan, reflecting a weaker sales outlook.</p>

Source • Mainichi PhotographySTAY AT HOME (PLEASE) - With the 2020 Olympics now destined for 2021, the authorities can focus on containing Covid-19 which continues to spread in Tokyo.  Governor Koike and the Governors of the surrounding prefectures have responded to the recent growth in cases in the metropolis by requesting that citizens stay at home this weekend. Parks and many shops and restaurants have closed, and inclement weather (it is snowing across most of the Kanto plain this Sunday) has resulted in a high degree of compliance.Source • aatishb.comCATCHING UP - Without the implementation of the measures adopted in China and South Korea, Japan is now moving more in line with the global trends shown above in terms of log-scale incremental rate of change. Sixty-three new cases were reported on Saturday, the largest single-day total to date. Over half of the new cases were in the 'Longevity General Hospital' in Taito Ward, taking the total for the capital to 362. For Japan as a whole, the total one cases for Saturday was 194 a 68% one-day increase. Covid-19 fatalities increased by six to 53.Source • aatishb.comTHE SWEDISH MODEL - PM Abe is concerned that a full societal 'lockdown' would damage the economy and has yet to invoke his newly-minted emergency powers - which, in any case, do not provide for such a measure. For now, Japan is following Sweden's social experiment of permitting life to go on as usual as much as possible. Both countries have been criticised for their 'novel' approach; however, their trajectories are noticeably different from the US and Italy. Let us hope than Japan's remarkably low-incidence of, and CFR from, Covid-19 infection can hold.CORONA 'SHOKKU' - At a press conference yesterday Abe pledged to introduce an economic package that would exceed Japan's response to the "Lehman Shock" with a particular focus on SMEs and distressed households. The details are to be announced in the next ten days.RATIONING BOOK - In other news, Kinokuniya bookstore in Tokyo is limiting purchases of the now-existential necessity Camus' The Plague' to one per person.Source • Japan AnalyticsPULLING OUT ALL THE STOPS - On Thursday the Bank of Japan's ETF purchase programme constituted 6% of Value Traded as the total interventions this month now total ¥1.3 trillion has recovered 18% from the last weeks' low and is 'only' 16% below the December high. Our Results Score is now negative, and the Forecast/Revision Score will follow next week. With over 3 billion people around the world in some form of social isolation, we expect both of our Scores to reach new five year lows by May and for equities to follow, despite Governor Kuroda's machinations.Source • Japan AnalyticsNO MAN'S LAND - As Aggregate TTM and Forecast Operating and Net Income head lower, the last week's bear-market-bounce has taken multiples back towards the long-term averages. With 3 quarters of results before a possible cycle low, Japanese equities are stuck in no man's land, neither overvalued not undervalued.  Source • Japan AnalyticsFRIDAY 27th MARCH - Friday saw six companies reporting results, of which two - Jastec (9717 JP)- andNiitaka (4465 JP) had positive scores. Fifteen companies revised their forecasts, and one - IMV (7760 JP) withdrew its forecast entirely. In terms of our scoring system, the ratio of positive to negative 'scores' was 6:10, with JFE (5411 JP) being the largest negative-scoring company. High-tech lamp maker Ushio (6925 JP) cut its forecast for Operating Income to ¥6b - which would be the lowest outcome since 1994 and implies a fourth-quarter operating loss of ¥0.35b.Sony (6758 JP)announced that its forecasts made in February are now likely to be revised down and that the company may not be able to release FY2020 earnings as scheduled on 30th April due to delays in accounting procedures. Honda Motor (7267 JP)has shut down two plants in Japan, reflecting a weaker sales outlook.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Alert - 27th March - A Weekend at Home with the Swedish Model

<p><strong>JAPAN AS NUMBER TWO</strong> - Japan is the second largest global market for share buybacks both in terms of number and percentage usage. However, gross buybacks have never exceeded more than one per cent of revenues, compared with a range of 2-6% in the US and, in terms of overall capital deployment since 1985, buybacks have never represented more than 6% of the total and are clearly more cyclical than dividends which are relative 'sticky' and only cut 'in extremis'.</p>
<p><strong>MOTIVATION</strong> - Buybacks can usually be placed into one of three categories - as exercises in financial engineering, as attempts to time the purchase of undervalued stock or as part of a regular programme that complements cash dividends. With only a few exceptions, Japanese companies do not fall into any one of these three categories. It is rare for Japanese boards to be incentivised with share options, concepts such as ‘intrinsic value’ are foreign to almost all and very few Japanese companies have adopted regular buy-back programmes.  The motivation and stated aims for most buyback programmes in Japan are often vague or opaque, particularly as regards creating value for continuing shareholders. </p>
<p><strong>GAMING ROE</strong> - We would suggest that much of the increase in buyback activity from 2014 to its recent peak in 2016 was driven by a desire to improve RoE. For many companies, reducing the 'E' was easier to achieve than increasing the 'R' especially in short-order, and coincided with a period when many companies were being criticised for holding too much cash.  Having achieved the 8% target, business investment has become the main priority once more.</p>
<p><strong>FREQUENCY</strong> - This 'ad hoc' approach to buybacks is clear from the frequency histogram below. Using changes in Net Shares Outstanding (Common and Preference Shares less Treasury Stock) of more than one per cent as a proxy for capital increases and reductions, only 18% of 3,513 currently listed Japanese companies have carried out more than one reduction over the last 27 quarters whereas 82% have increased capital by more than one per cent. Only forty companies have, on average, reduced their Net Shares Outstanding at least once a year.  </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/060/781/original/2018-08-15_13-00-21.png?1534388345" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="60781"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>AVERAGE 'BUYBACK' SIZE IS DECLINING</strong> - Since 1999, the average percentage reduction in Net Shares Outstanding for companies that have engaged in buybacks has been 4%. However, this has declined to 3.1% in the last two years.</p>
<p><strong>NET BUYBACKS LESS THAN 5% OF FREE CASH FLOW</strong> - Over the last seven years, the number of buybacks has increased, partly due to pressure from non-resident shareholders. 17 of the last 27 quarters have seen negative equity cash flows with the peak being in '2016-Q4' which was the first calendar quarter of 2016 when TOPIX was last at its long-term average.  Nevertheless, cumulative net equity cash flows since 2012 amount to only ¥4 trillion or less than 5% of Free Cash Flow. Cumulative dividends amounted to ¥52 trillion or 55% of Free Cash Flow.  </p>
<p><strong>BUYBACKS ARE BACK</strong> - The last reported quarter, which for most companies ended in March 2018, saw a return to net share buybacks. The amount (¥766 billion) was the largest in seven quarters and was the first sizeable net buyback quarter in a period when TOPIX exceeded its long-term average. The trend has continued into the quarter currently being reported with over ¥2 trillion of buybacks announced in April and May to be completed over the balance of the year. With cash flow at record highs and after paying down over ¥10 trillion in debt over the last five quarters, Japanese companies, it appears, have begun to adopt a more flexible approach to shareholder returns.</p>
<p><strong>MIXED SIGNALS - MUTED RESPONSE</strong> - It is clear that the response to buyback announcements and the impact that the actual buybacks have on subsequent share price performance has become more muted in recent years. Part of this is due to the types of companies that have been engaging in buybacks and their motivation for doing so. If the shares are being purchased due to a substantial undervaluation, the signalling of such directly from the management should result in a profitable investment opportunity.  Investors must, however, be careful. As can be seen from the current holding in the Solactive index and the tables of buyback 'champions' below, many share buybacks in Japan are just distributions of cash from mature companies that no longer have investment opportunities, examples being <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19603" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1">Yahoo Japan (4689 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/602" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:602:1">Mixi Inc (2121 JP)</a>.  Alternatively, for companies that have become more frequent players, buybacks are in effect dividend substitutes and, as such, have nothing to do with value creation. Mechanically buying shares in Japanese companies that have announced or are conducting share buybacks is unlikely to lead to outperformance.    </p>
<p><strong>BUYBACK 'CHAMPIONS', 'NO-CHANGERS', 'CAPITAL JUNKIES' AND 'ROLL-UP ARTISTS' -</strong> we have provided in the detail below lists of companies measured by both change in Net Shares Outstanding and Equity Cash Flow and have labeled them based on the percentage changes in shares both negative and positive as well as highlighting those companies with little or no change.</p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>CONCLUSION</strong> -  Buybacks in Japan are are the smallest component of the capital allocation menu for Japanese management and many of those companies that are buying back stock do so for a variety of reasons, most of which do not involve a signal that the shares are undervalued. In many cases, a buyback may be seen as a sign of capitulation, either due to pressure from activist shareholders or due to a lack of investment opportunities. For many companies, the Bank of Japan ETF purchases have had and will continue to have more of an impact. </p>
</div>

JAPAN AS NUMBER TWO - Japan is the second largest global market for share buybacks both in terms of number and percentage usage. However, gross buybacks have never exceeded more than one per cent of revenues, compared with a range of 2-6% in the US and, in terms of overall capital deployment since 1985, buybacks have never represented more than 6% of the total and are clearly more cyclical than dividends which are relative 'sticky' and only cut 'in extremis'.
MOTIVATION - Buybacks can usually be placed into one of three categories - as exercises in financial engineering, as attempts to time the purchase of undervalued stock or as part of a regular programme that complements cash dividends. With only a few exceptions, Japanese companies do not fall into any one of these three categories. It is rare for Japanese boards to be incentivised with share options, concepts such as ‘intrinsic value’ are foreign to almost all and very few Japanese companies have adopted regular buy-back programmes.  The motivation and stated aims for most buyback programmes in Japan are often vague or opaque, particularly as regards creating value for continuing shareholders. 
GAMING ROE - We would suggest that much of the increase in buyback activity from 2014 to its recent peak in 2016 was driven by a desire to improve RoE. For many companies, reducing the 'E' was easier to achieve than increasing the 'R' especially in short-order, and coincided with a period when many companies were being criticised for holding too much cash.  Having achieved the 8% target, business investment has become the main priority once more.
FREQUENCY - This 'ad hoc' approach to buybacks is clear from the frequency histogram below. Using changes in Net Shares Outstanding (Common and Preference Shares less Treasury Stock) of more than one per cent as a proxy for capital increases and reductions, only 18% of 3,513 currently listed Japanese companies have carried out more than one reduction over the last 27 quarters whereas 82% have increased capital by more than one per cent. Only forty companies have, on average, reduced their Net Shares Outstanding at least once a year.  

Source: Japan Analytics
AVERAGE 'BUYBACK' SIZE IS DECLINING - Since 1999, the average percentage reduction in Net Shares Outstanding for companies that have engaged in buybacks has been 4%. However, this has declined to 3.1% in the last two years.
NET BUYBACKS LESS THAN 5% OF FREE CASH FLOW - Over the last seven years, the number of buybacks has increased, partly due to pressure from non-resident shareholders. 17 of the last 27 quarters have seen negative equity cash flows with the peak being in '2016-Q4' which was the first calendar quarter of 2016 when TOPIX was last at its long-term average.  Nevertheless, cumulative net equity cash flows since 2012 amount to only ¥4 trillion or less than 5% of Free Cash Flow. Cumulative dividends amounted to ¥52 trillion or 55% of Free Cash Flow.  
BUYBACKS ARE BACK - The last reported quarter, which for most companies ended in March 2018, saw a return to net share buybacks. The amount (¥766 billion) was the largest in seven quarters and was the first sizeable net buyback quarter in a period when TOPIX exceeded its long-term average. The trend has continued into the quarter currently being reported with over ¥2 trillion of buybacks announced in April and May to be completed over the balance of the year. With cash flow at record highs and after paying down over ¥10 trillion in debt over the last five quarters, Japanese companies, it appears, have begun to adopt a more flexible approach to shareholder returns.
MIXED SIGNALS - MUTED RESPONSE - It is clear that the response to buyback announcements and the impact that the actual buybacks have on subsequent share price performance has become more muted in recent years. Part of this is due to the types of companies that have been engaging in buybacks and their motivation for doing so. If the shares are being purchased due to a substantial undervaluation, the signalling of such directly from the management should result in a profitable investment opportunity.  Investors must, however, be careful. As can be seen from the current holding in the Solactive index and the tables of buyback 'champions' below, many share buybacks in Japan are just distributions of cash from mature companies that no longer have investment opportunities, examples being Yahoo Japan (4689 JP) and Mixi Inc (2121 JP).  Alternatively, for companies that have become more frequent players, buybacks are in effect dividend substitutes and, as such, have nothing to do with value creation. Mechanically buying shares in Japanese companies that have announced or are conducting share buybacks is unlikely to lead to outperformance.    
BUYBACK 'CHAMPIONS', 'NO-CHANGERS', 'CAPITAL JUNKIES' AND 'ROLL-UP ARTISTS' - we have provided in the detail below lists of companies measured by both change in Net Shares Outstanding and Equity Cash Flow and have labeled them based on the percentage changes in shares both negative and positive as well as highlighting those companies with little or no change.

CONCLUSION -  Buybacks in Japan are are the smallest component of the capital allocation menu for Japanese management and many of those companies that are buying back stock do so for a variety of reasons, most of which do not involve a signal that the shares are undervalued. In many cases, a buyback may be seen as a sign of capitulation, either due to pressure from activist shareholders or due to a lack of investment opportunities. For many companies, the Bank of Japan ETF purchases have had and will continue to have more of an impact. 


Japan: Share Buybacks - Less Than Meets the Eye

Japan

JFE Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which was established through the merger of NKK Corp and Kawasaki Steel Corp.  The Company manages and conducts its subsidiaries' business, which is steel production and integrated engineering services.

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JFE Holdings (5411 JP)

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🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Contrarian Buys

FOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results & Revision Score (RRS), we can assign...

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FROM OPERATING TO FINANCING CASH FLOWS - Having examined Operating Cash Flow in our previous Insight, we shall look into the 'stressors' between...

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