Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2025 will start with more attractive turnaround opportunities than we have seen in a long time. </li>
<li>An uptick in TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions makes it suddenly no longer safe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.</li>
<li>Investors are noticing. More than two-dozen large- and medium-cap stocks with deep discounts to the benchmark began to bounce off well-defined support levels in late December.</li>
</ul>


2025 will start with more attractive turnaround opportunities than we have seen in a long time. 
An uptick in TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions makes it suddenly no longer safe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.
Investors are noticing. More than two-dozen large- and medium-cap stocks with deep discounts to the benchmark began to bounce off well-defined support levels in late December.


Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan's tech market sees major movement with Carlyle's 120% premium bid for Kaonavi, highlighting the stark valuation gap between Japanese and US SaaS companies.</li>
<li>Many Japanese software firms trade at significantly lower multiples (4x) versus US peers (8x), attracting private equity attention.</li>
<li>Japanese stocks ended the week up around 1%. Global macro concerns and inflation lifting bond yields and raising concern over a stronger yen. </li>
</ul>


Japan's tech market sees major movement with Carlyle's 120% premium bid for Kaonavi, highlighting the stark valuation gap between Japanese and US SaaS companies.
Many Japanese software firms trade at significantly lower multiples (4x) versus US peers (8x), attracting private equity attention.
Japanese stocks ended the week up around 1%. Global macro concerns and inflation lifting bond yields and raising concern over a stronger yen. 


Japan Strategy Weekly | Carlyle's Kaonavi Deal Signals a Shift in Japanese Valuations

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>News that mature-node foundry UMC will hike wafer prices is a positive sign for semi’s outside of the AI thematic.</li>
<li>Oil and gas infra companies Chiyoda, Toyo Engineering and JGC on the radar assuming a peace deal will eventually hold.</li>
<li>Kioxia -9.9% and Kokusai -7.2% on Friday likely heading further lower today.</li>
</ul>


News that mature-node foundry UMC will hike wafer prices is a positive sign for semi’s outside of the AI thematic.
Oil and gas infra companies Chiyoda, Toyo Engineering and JGC on the radar assuming a peace deal will eventually hold.
Kioxia -9.9% and Kokusai -7.2% on Friday likely heading further lower today.


Japan Morning Connection: Exuberance Fades Fast as Iran Closes Straits

<ul>
<li>Topix broadly flat (-0.1%) amid volatility; energy surge drove sector divergence, with Services/Food outperforming and Mining/Steel lagging. </li>
<li>US equities strongly outperformed Japan. Iran conflict drove ~12% oil spike and heightened volatility; Hormuz disruption risk dominated sentiment, though LNG transit flows provided limited reassurance. </li>
<li>Japan data resilient (strong Tankan), but inflation and weak yen raise BOJ hike odds; capital rotating into AI infrastructure (e.g., Microsoft investment) despite macro uncertainty.</li>
</ul>


Topix broadly flat (-0.1%) amid volatility; energy surge drove sector divergence, with Services/Food outperforming and Mining/Steel lagging. 
US equities strongly outperformed Japan. Iran conflict drove ~12% oil spike and heightened volatility; Hormuz disruption risk dominated sentiment, though LNG transit flows provided limited reassurance. 
Japan data resilient (strong Tankan), but inflation and weak yen raise BOJ hike odds; capital rotating into AI infrastructure (e.g., Microsoft investment) despite macro uncertainty.


Japan Strategy Weekly | Markets Navigate Volatility

<ul>
<li>QD Laser (6613 JP) was +7.15% yesterday but may continue to get a lift with US optical/phonetic related names outperforming.</li>
<li>A dour tone for Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP) and NEC Corp (6701 JP) etc, especially with a switch to a more risk-on footing in the wings.</li>
<li>Oil and gas infra names did better overnight, so may get a follow through for Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP) and Jgc Corp (1963 JP).</li>
</ul>


QD Laser (6613 JP) was +7.15% yesterday but may continue to get a lift with US optical/phonetic related names outperforming.
A dour tone for Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP) and NEC Corp (6701 JP) etc, especially with a switch to a more risk-on footing in the wings.
Oil and gas infra names did better overnight, so may get a follow through for Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP) and Jgc Corp (1963 JP).


Japan Morning Connection: Fading Oil Sets a Positive Tone for Risk-On Tech, Airlines and Shippers

Japan

JGC Holdings Corporation provides infrastructure construction services. The Company designs, constructs, and maintains petroleum, petrochemical, gas, nuclear power, pharmaceutical, and communication facilities. JGC Holdings offers services worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Jgc Corp (1963 JP)

Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...

Michael Allen

Japan Strategy Weekly | Carlyle's Kaonavi Deal Signals a Shift in Japanese Valuations

Carlyle's bid for Kaonavi underscores valuation gap between Japanese and US SaaS companies, attracting private equity interest. Japanese stocks up...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Exuberance Fades Fast as Iran Closes Straits

Friday's exuberance fades fast as Iran closes the Straits again. Japan's recent tech winners face more pain while power semis and wafer names start...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Strategy Weekly | Markets Navigate Volatility

Energy surge drives sector divergence in Topix, US equities outperform Japan amid Iran conflict and oil spike, Japan data resilient but inflation...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Fading Oil Sets a Positive Tone for Risk-On Tech, Airlines and Shippers

Oil fading at the open sets a positive tone for risk on tech, airlines and shippers, while optical names continue to surge on data center order...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers​ creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...

Michael Allen

Japan Strategy Weekly | Carlyle's Kaonavi Deal Signals a Shift in Japanese Valuations

​Carlyle's bid for Kaonavi underscores valuation gap between Japanese and US SaaS companies, attracting private equity interest. Japanese stocks up...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Exuberance Fades Fast as Iran Closes Straits

Friday's exuberance fades fast as Iran closes the Straits again. Japan's recent tech winners face more pain while power semis and wafer names start...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Strategy Weekly | Markets Navigate Volatility

​Energy surge drives sector divergence in Topix, US equities outperform Japan amid Iran conflict and oil spike, Japan data resilient but inflation...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Fading Oil Sets a Positive Tone for Risk-On Tech, Airlines and Shippers

Oil fading at the open sets a positive tone for risk on tech, airlines and shippers, while optical names continue to surge on data center order...

Andrew Jackson

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...

Carlyle's bid for Kaonavi underscores valuation gap between Japanese and US SaaS companies, attracting private equity interest. Japanese stocks up...

Energy surge drives sector divergence in Topix, US equities outperform Japan amid Iran conflict and oil spike, Japan data resilient but inflation...