HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>After the centralized procurement in Hebei Province included OK lens, products with high gross margin and low market penetration rate seem to be the new trend of centralized procurement.</li>
<li>Although the current valuation of healthcare industry is relatively low compared with historical levels, that comparison is of little significance due to the fast pace of change.</li>
<li>In terms of when domestic biotech companies could achieve break-even, there is some logic actually. Investors can estimate the time for biotechs to achieve profitability.</li>
</ul>


After the centralized procurement in Hebei Province included OK lens, products with high gross margin and low market penetration rate seem to be the new trend of centralized procurement.
Although the current valuation of healthcare industry is relatively low compared with historical levels, that comparison is of little significance due to the fast pace of change.
In terms of when domestic biotech companies could achieve break-even, there is some logic actually. Investors can estimate the time for biotechs to achieve profitability.


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct28)-OK Lens VBP, Time Required for Biotech to Make Profit, World Changes

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 195 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 81.4% as of Jul 31st.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 1.9ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, materials, energy and offset by communication services, information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Hua Hong Semi, CMB, Shandong Gold Mining Co Lt-H, Eastroc.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 195 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 81.4% as of Jul 31st.
The average A-H premium changed by 1.9ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, materials, energy and offset by communication services, information technology.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Hua Hong Semi, CMB, Shandong Gold Mining Co Lt-H, Eastroc.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 31st): Hua Hong Semi, CMB, Shandong Gold Mining Co Lt-H, Eastroc

<ul>
<li>The rebounds in healthcare sector is more due to oversold. Unfriendly macro environment could make stock price fluctuate largely.Investors would find better places to long than the current valuation level.</li>
<li>The new document about payment management measures for new technology out of CHS-DRG payment scope is an important “policy correction” signal, but there are still problems remain to be solved.</li>
<li>We analyzed our top picks and investment logic in CXO, pharmaceuticals and medical device industry. Overall, as a “defensive sector”, China healthcare has investment value in such complicated external environment.</li>
</ul>


The rebounds in healthcare sector is more due to oversold. Unfriendly macro environment could make stock price fluctuate largely.Investors would find better places to long than the current valuation level.
The new document about payment management measures for new technology out of CHS-DRG payment scope is an important “policy correction” signal, but there are still problems remain to be solved.
We analyzed our top picks and investment logic in CXO, pharmaceuticals and medical device industry. Overall, as a “defensive sector”, China healthcare has investment value in such complicated external environment.


2022H2 China Healthcare Investment Strategy and Top Picks

<ul>
<li>The increasing expenditure for pandemic prevention and quarantine adds further pressure on the medical insurance fund. So, the NHSA will have more incentive to reduce payment standard.</li>
<li>We analyzed our interpretation on the new policies/bidding rules/impact on companies of 2022 NRDL adjustment, which would be very intense as more high-priced drugs voluntarily reduce prices to enter NRDL.</li>
<li>This year's NRDL negotiations will take place between September and October. The results will be announced in November.Investors can pay attention to relevant time nodes and get prepared in advance.</li>
</ul>


The increasing expenditure for pandemic prevention and quarantine adds further pressure on the medical insurance fund. So, the NHSA will have more incentive to reduce payment standard.
We analyzed our interpretation on the new policies/bidding rules/impact on companies of 2022 NRDL adjustment, which would be very intense as more high-priced drugs voluntarily reduce prices to enter NRDL.
This year's NRDL negotiations will take place between September and October. The results will be announced in November.Investors can pay attention to relevant time nodes and get prepared in advance.


Policy Interpretation of 2022 National Medical Insurance (NRDL) Negotiation

<ul>
<li>The NMPA has issued a draft regulation about rare diseases, which would have a profound impact. Investors are advised to follow this field as policy becomes more friendly.</li>
<li>After continuous corrections, many investors are wondering if the healthcare sector has reached bottom. We analyzed our thoughts and judgement.</li>
<li>Let's have a look at the lockdown in China from a different angle. The zero-COVID policy could make economic sense. The “travails” are significant for the coming economic crisis.</li>
</ul>


The NMPA has issued a draft regulation about rare diseases, which would have a profound impact. Investors are advised to follow this field as policy becomes more friendly.
After continuous corrections, many investors are wondering if the healthcare sector has reached bottom. We analyzed our thoughts and judgement.
Let's have a look at the lockdown in China from a different angle. The zero-COVID policy could make economic sense. The “travails” are significant for the coming economic crisis.


China Healthcare Weekly (May20)-Lockdown Impact on Macro Economy, Bottom Signal? Rare Disease Policy

China

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and markets a variety of medicines and medicine packing materials. The Company's products include anti-tumor medicines, pain-killers, anti-infection medicines, aluminum foil, and other related products.

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Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct28)-OK Lens VBP, Time Required for Biotech to Make Profit, World Changes

OK lens VBP means the goal of VBP is changed to ensure people's livelihood; It’s of little significance to compare with history since the world...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 31st): Hua Hong Semi, CMB, Shandong Gold Mining Co Lt-H, Eastroc

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Hua Hong Semi, CMB, Shandong Gold Mining Co Lt-H, Eastroc.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

2022H2 China Healthcare Investment Strategy and Top Picks

We analyze the investment strategy,top picks and logic in CXO,pharmaceuticals and medical device industry.As a “defensive sector”,China healthcare...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Policy Interpretation of 2022 National Medical Insurance (NRDL) Negotiation

We analyzed the new policies, bidding rules, logic and impact on companies of 2022 NRDL adjustment,which will be very intense.The results will be...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (May20)-Lockdown Impact on Macro Economy, Bottom Signal? Rare Disease Policy

The lockdown could make economic sense, which is significant for coming economic crisis;We analyzed the bottom signal of biotech/CXO/medical...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)