HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>CMS's way of in-licensing products has shifted from CSO model to asset-purchase model so as to enhance control on the assets. But the transformation hasn’t been recognized by the market.     </li>
<li>Despite outstanding fundamentals, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-medical-system-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18736:1" rel="noopener">CMS</a>’s valuation remains low. Doubts about the Company's real R&amp;D capabilities/core competitiveness and the negative image due to past financial fraud could be the reasons.</li>
<li>CMS would encounter performance headwinds in 2023/2024 due to VBP, but revenue/profit growth is expected to pick up in 2025. It’s still a good defensive choice in a bear market.</li>
</ul>


CMS's way of in-licensing products has shifted from CSO model to asset-purchase model so as to enhance control on the assets. But the transformation hasn’t been recognized by the market.     
Despite outstanding fundamentals, CMS’s valuation remains low. Doubts about the Company's real R&amp;D capabilities/core competitiveness and the negative image due to past financial fraud could be the reasons.
CMS would encounter performance headwinds in 2023/2024 due to VBP, but revenue/profit growth is expected to pick up in 2025. It’s still a good defensive choice in a bear market.


China Medical System (867 HK) - A Wise Choice in a Bear Market

<ul>
<li>One direct reason for the sharp drop in stock prices is that RemeGen's performance in 23Q4 would miss expectation, thus leading to disappointing performance for the entire year of 2023.</li>
<li>Due to low competitiveness of pipelines, product sales are hard to bring sufficient cashflow.Prospects for future license-out deals are still uncertain. RemeGen may find it difficult to turn the tide.</li>
<li>Reasonable market value of Remegen should be above RMB12 billion. Investors can participate in the rebounds after stock price plunge, but we do not recommend holding for the long term.</li>
</ul>


One direct reason for the sharp drop in stock prices is that RemeGen's performance in 23Q4 would miss expectation, thus leading to disappointing performance for the entire year of 2023.
Due to low competitiveness of pipelines, product sales are hard to bring sufficient cashflow.Prospects for future license-out deals are still uncertain. RemeGen may find it difficult to turn the tide.
Reasonable market value of Remegen should be above RMB12 billion. Investors can participate in the rebounds after stock price plunge, but we do not recommend holding for the long term.


Remegen (9995.HK/688331.CH) - The Real Reasons for the Stock Price Collapse and the Future Prospects

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 12th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$374.5 million, led by financials, consumer staples, and offset by consumer discretionary, information technology, industrials.</li>
<li>We highlight northbound connect flows for Moutai and Longi Green.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 12th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$374.5 million, led by financials, consumer staples, and offset by consumer discretionary, information technology, industrials.
We highlight northbound connect flows for Moutai and Longi Green.


Northbound Flows (Jan 12th): Moutai, Longi Green

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>If checking the hot ADC transactions in recent years, a very big portion of ADC varieties in global licensing deals are from Chinese pharmaceutical companies, which is actually very rare.</li>
<li>While international buyers are “very generous” for ADC assets and MNC's appetite would remain strong, they will immediately calm down and stop once they see any "potential risk" behind.</li>
<li>For Chinese pharmaceutical companies, ADC license-out deal is more of a temporary catalyst. We suggest taking a rational view. ADC CDMO (e.g. WuXi XDC) could be a better investment option.</li>
</ul>


If checking the hot ADC transactions in recent years, a very big portion of ADC varieties in global licensing deals are from Chinese pharmaceutical companies, which is actually very rare.
While international buyers are “very generous” for ADC assets and MNC's appetite would remain strong, they will immediately calm down and stop once they see any "potential risk" behind.
For Chinese pharmaceutical companies, ADC license-out deal is more of a temporary catalyst. We suggest taking a rational view. ADC CDMO (e.g. WuXi XDC) could be a better investment option.


China's Rising Role in Global ADC Partnership Wave - Opportunities and Risks Behind the Gold Rush

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Consumer Staples (inflows of $818 million) led the inflows. Financials ($1,109 million worth of outflows), Materials ($1,131 million worth of outflows) led the outflows.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Moutai, Hygon Information Technology, Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare, Mindray, China Yangtze Power, Shenzhen Inovance Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Consumer Staples (inflows of $818 million) led the inflows. Financials ($1,109 million worth of outflows), Materials ($1,131 million worth of outflows) led the outflows.
We highlight inflows into Moutai, Hygon Information Technology, Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare, Mindray, China Yangtze Power, Shenzhen Inovance Technology.


Northbound Flows (November): Inflows (Consumer Staples, Healthcare) Offset by Outflows (Financials)

China

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and markets a variety of medicines and medicine packing materials. The Company's products include anti-tumor medicines, pain-killers, anti-infection medicines, aluminum foil, and other related products.

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Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)

China Medical System (867 HK) - A Wise Choice in a Bear Market

CMS's performance low point is 2023/2024, but high growth returns in 2025. Despite bad image due to past financial fraud, high dividend/strong...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Remegen (9995.HK/688331.CH) - The Real Reasons for the Stock Price Collapse and the Future Prospects

RemeGen's 23Q4 results will miss expectation, leading to poor performance for 2023.The pain point isn't cashflow shortage but weak...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Northbound Flows (Jan 12th): Moutai, Longi Green

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight northbound connect flows for Moutai, Longi Green.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China's Rising Role in Global ADC Partnership Wave - Opportunities and Risks Behind the Gold Rush

As China's ADCs continue to gain recognition from global buyers,the position of Chinese pharmaceutical companies is undergoing fundamental...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Northbound Flows (November): Inflows (Consumer Staples, Healthcare) Offset by Outflows (Financials)

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for November and highlight flows for Moutai, Hygon Information Technology, Shanghai United Imaging...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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