HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>There is a certain connection between Sunho and Genscript. So, Sunho has a typical style of "CXO switching to biotech" – That is to do whatever is popular.</li>
<li>For core products, IAP0971 and IAE0972 just completed phase I trials, still with high R&amp;D failure risks. IAH0968 is difficult to become a blockbuster variety due to strong competing products.</li>
<li>As investors’re already rational about investing in unprofitable Biotech. The companies without commercialized products and with uncertain outlook may not be favored by the market. Therefore, high valuation is unreasonable.</li>
</ul>


There is a certain connection between Sunho and Genscript. So, Sunho has a typical style of "CXO switching to biotech" – That is to do whatever is popular.
For core products, IAP0971 and IAE0972 just completed phase I trials, still with high R&amp;D failure risks. IAH0968 is difficult to become a blockbuster variety due to strong competing products.
As investors’re already rational about investing in unprofitable Biotech. The companies without commercialized products and with uncertain outlook may not be favored by the market. Therefore, high valuation is unreasonable.


Pre-IPO Sunho Biologics (SHB HK) - High Valuations Can Be Hard to Come By

Equity Bottom-Up

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hengrui’s performance recovery in 23H1 (especially 23Q2) was due to the low base last year caused by pandemic/lockdown. Increasing innovative drugs revenue proportion also reduced the negative impact of VBP.</li>
<li>People think the turning point of Hengrui's performance has arrived, but we hold different opinions.Some big varieties haven’t entered VBP. It would take some time to achieve breakthrough in internationalization.</li>
<li>The negative impact of 23H2 anti-corruption hasn’t been reflected in interim report.Even if Hengrui’s performance growth could be back to 20-25% YoY in 2025/2026, over 60 PE/TTM is already expensive. </li>
</ul>


Hengrui’s performance recovery in 23H1 (especially 23Q2) was due to the low base last year caused by pandemic/lockdown. Increasing innovative drugs revenue proportion also reduced the negative impact of VBP.
People think the turning point of Hengrui's performance has arrived, but we hold different opinions.Some big varieties haven’t entered VBP. It would take some time to achieve breakthrough in internationalization.
The negative impact of 23H2 anti-corruption hasn’t been reflected in interim report.Even if Hengrui’s performance growth could be back to 20-25% YoY in 2025/2026, over 60 PE/TTM is already expensive. 


Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) 23H1 - Has the Turning Point of Performance Really Arrived?

<ul>
<li>Vancocin/Ceclor/FPN are currently the “cash cow” for Edding, but they’re facing the challenges of generics, VBP and increasing competition. Their current market leading position may be lost in the future.</li>
<li>Edding seeks business transformation as its CSO model doesn’t work under domestic negative policies. But peak sales of three innovative drugs Vascepa/Mulpleta/EDP 125 may not reach the level of Vancocin/Ceclor.</li>
<li>Edding’s core advantage still lies in sales capabilities. Its R&amp;D capabilities have always been questioned. It’s unsure whether the market would give high valuation to a company without core competitiveness.</li>
</ul>


Vancocin/Ceclor/FPN are currently the “cash cow” for Edding, but they’re facing the challenges of generics, VBP and increasing competition. Their current market leading position may be lost in the future.
Edding seeks business transformation as its CSO model doesn’t work under domestic negative policies. But peak sales of three innovative drugs Vascepa/Mulpleta/EDP 125 may not reach the level of Vancocin/Ceclor.
Edding’s core advantage still lies in sales capabilities. Its R&amp;D capabilities have always been questioned. It’s unsure whether the market would give high valuation to a company without core competitiveness.


Pre-IPO Edding Group - CSO Model Is Hard to Sustain, but Business Transformation Faces Challenges

HighTide Therapeutics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The mechanism of NASH has not yet been accurately determined. Among the major players, FDA has postponed the approval of OCA (FXR) for NASH. THR-β is currently the most promising. </li>
<li>HighTide claims that HTD1801 is able to achieve the goal of improving effectiveness and reducing toxicity. However, HTD1801 hasn’t reached pathological endpoints. We’ll have to wait for future clinical data.</li>
<li>This Company actually has high risk due to cash shortage and uncertain R&amp;D progress, which could lead to lower-than-expected stock price performance. We are conservative about HighTide based on analysis.</li>
</ul>


The mechanism of NASH has not yet been accurately determined. Among the major players, FDA has postponed the approval of OCA (FXR) for NASH. THR-β is currently the most promising. 
HighTide claims that HTD1801 is able to achieve the goal of improving effectiveness and reducing toxicity. However, HTD1801 hasn’t reached pathological endpoints. We’ll have to wait for future clinical data.
This Company actually has high risk due to cash shortage and uncertain R&amp;D progress, which could lead to lower-than-expected stock price performance. We are conservative about HighTide based on analysis.


Pre-IPO HighTide Therapeutics - Its Outlook in NASH Field Is Not Optimistic, with High Risks

<ul>
<li>VBP would continue to have an impact on Hansoh’s generic drug business in 2023.Such negative impact would gradually fade from 2024 as big varieties have all been included in VBP.</li>
<li>The core difference between Hansoh and Hengrui is that someone similar to Zhang Lianshan's role arrived late, resulting in a slower start and weaker overall framework for innovation drug business.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK)</a> is still in the process of business transformation. Before the harvest time of innovative drug pipeline comes, Hansoh's valuation growth would still be a long-term story.</li>
</ul>


VBP would continue to have an impact on Hansoh’s generic drug business in 2023.Such negative impact would gradually fade from 2024 as big varieties have all been included in VBP.
The core difference between Hansoh and Hengrui is that someone similar to Zhang Lianshan's role arrived late, resulting in a slower start and weaker overall framework for innovation drug business.

Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) is still in the process of business transformation. Before the harvest time of innovative drug pipeline comes, Hansoh's valuation growth would still be a long-term story.


Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692.HK)- Positive Growth in 2023, but Valuation Turning Point Hasn't Arrived

China

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and markets a variety of medicines and medicine packing materials. The Company's products include anti-tumor medicines, pain-killers, anti-infection medicines, aluminum foil, and other related products.

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Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)

Pre-IPO Sunho Biologics (SHB HK) - High Valuations Can Be Hard to Come By

Sunho does not have any drugs at NDA/BLA stage or commercialized products. Its outlook is highly uncertain due to challenging clinical trials...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang