HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Beijing Health Guard Biotechnology / Equity Capital Markets

Beijing Health Guard Biotechnology (833575 CH)

<ul>
<li>The real market space of China’s HPV vaccines is much smaller-than-expected. Investment logic of vaccine companies is different from biotech - They either become large vaccine enterprises or are eliminated.</li>
<li>Low-Valent HPV vaccines would easily enter a price war or be included in National Immunization Program. 9-valent HPV vaccines would be the main battlefield, which is a highly competitive market.</li>
<li>Health Guard is facing increasing survival risks. Based on the concerns about the commercialization outlook of HPV vaccines, we’re not sure if the Company would bring expected returns to investors.</li>
</ul>


The real market space of China’s HPV vaccines is much smaller-than-expected. Investment logic of vaccine companies is different from biotech - They either become large vaccine enterprises or are eliminated.
Low-Valent HPV vaccines would easily enter a price war or be included in National Immunization Program. 9-valent HPV vaccines would be the main battlefield, which is a highly competitive market.
Health Guard is facing increasing survival risks. Based on the concerns about the commercialization outlook of HPV vaccines, we’re not sure if the Company would bring expected returns to investors.


Pre-IPO Beijing Health Guard Biotechnology - The Story of the HPV Vaccine Is Not as Good as Imagined

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Lygend Resources & Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lygend-resources-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36493:1" rel="noopener">Lygend Resources &amp; Technology (2245 HK)</a> raised US$470m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Lygend Resources &amp; Technology (Lygend) is a nickel trading and production firm with a portfolio covering multiple areas across the nickel industry value chain.</li>
<li>In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Lygend Resources &amp; Technology (2245 HK) raised US$470m in its Hong Kong IPO.
Lygend Resources &amp; Technology (Lygend) is a nickel trading and production firm with a portfolio covering multiple areas across the nickel industry value chain.
In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.


Lygend Resources & Technology IPO Trading - Tepid Subscription but Potential Upside Remains

Equity Bottom-Up

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products / Equity Bottom-Up

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122 CH)

<ul>
<li>Due to the lack of competitiveness, Zhifei’s self-developed products cannot contribute solid performance to make up for the shrinking revenue of HPV vaccines when more competing products gradually launched.</li>
<li>The real potential of HPV vaccine market in China is not as big as imagined. So, the companies involved have the problem of inflated market values.</li>
<li>Due to low demand of COVID-19 vaccine/negative impact of pandemic on HPV vaccination, Zhifei's revenue YoY growth could be 10%-20%; Net profit YoY growth could be negative in 2022.</li>
</ul>


Due to the lack of competitiveness, Zhifei’s self-developed products cannot contribute solid performance to make up for the shrinking revenue of HPV vaccines when more competing products gradually launched.
The real potential of HPV vaccine market in China is not as big as imagined. So, the companies involved have the problem of inflated market values.
Due to low demand of COVID-19 vaccine/negative impact of pandemic on HPV vaccination, Zhifei's revenue YoY growth could be 10%-20%; Net profit YoY growth could be negative in 2022.


Zhifei Biological Products (300122.CH) - More Downside Ahead, with Untenable Logic in HPV Vaccine

<ul>
<li>Under the current policy in China, any minor changes to vaccine doses require a series of clinical data support and registration changes. So, WHO’s recommendation won’t affect Zhifei’s short-term performance.</li>
<li>The increasing domestic competing HPV vaccines in the future would be a big threat to Zhifei’s agency business. Its self-developed products may not be strong enough to compensate. </li>
<li>The performance in 2022 is expected to be solid before real challenge comes in 2024. The valuation logic and outlook won’t be brighten unless there’s new breakthrough in agency business.</li>
</ul>


Under the current policy in China, any minor changes to vaccine doses require a series of clinical data support and registration changes. So, WHO’s recommendation won’t affect Zhifei’s short-term performance.
The increasing domestic competing HPV vaccines in the future would be a big threat to Zhifei’s agency business. Its self-developed products may not be strong enough to compensate. 
The performance in 2022 is expected to be solid before real challenge comes in 2024. The valuation logic and outlook won’t be brighten unless there’s new breakthrough in agency business.


Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122.CH) - WHO's One-Dose HPV Vaccine Regimen & The Outlook

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/v3-brands-asia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35797:1" rel="noopener">V3 Brands Asia (V3 HK)</a> is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. It was previously listed on the SGX between 2000-2016.</li>
<li>V3 Brands Asia is a lifestyle and wellness firm, it is most known for its flagship massage chairs which are sold under the OSIM brand.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



V3 Brands Asia (V3 HK) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. It was previously listed on the SGX between 2000-2016.
V3 Brands Asia is a lifestyle and wellness firm, it is most known for its flagship massage chairs which are sold under the OSIM brand.
In this note, we'll talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.


V3 Brands Asia Pre-IPO - The Negatives - While Margins Have Grown, so Have Payouts to Founder

China

Jiangsu Recbio Technology is an innovative vaccine company dedicated to the research, development, production, and commercialization of recombinant protein vaccines and related adjuvant technologies. Its pipeline includes vaccines for cervical cancer, shingles, COVID-19, influenza, and tuberculosis. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Taizhou, Jiangsu, PRC.

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Jiangsu Recbio Technology (2179 HK)

Pre-IPO Beijing Health Guard Biotechnology - The Story of the HPV Vaccine Is Not as Good as Imagined

The real China’s HPV vaccine market could be smaller-than-expected.After being included in National Immunization Program, vaccine business will be...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Lygend Resources & Technology IPO Trading - Tepid Subscription but Potential Upside Remains

Lygend Resources & Technology (2245 HK) raised US$470m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Clarence Chu

Zhifei Biological Products (300122.CH) - More Downside Ahead, with Untenable Logic in HPV Vaccine

Zhifei’s HPV vaccine will face real risk as competing products launch from 2024. The real potential of China HPV vaccine market is much lower than...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122.CH) - WHO's One-Dose HPV Vaccine Regimen & The Outlook

WHO’s recommendation on HPV vaccines is not the biggest risk of Zhifei and won't affect short-term performance, but the valuation logic...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

V3 Brands Asia Pre-IPO - The Negatives - While Margins Have Grown, so Have Payouts to Founder

V3 Brands Asia (V3 HK) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we'll talk about the not so positive aspects...

Clarence Chu

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