Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>For the sixth consecutive year, China's steel output is declining (-3.9%YoY in Jan-May'26). World steel output is declining for the 5th consecutive year, but India/US/Germany steel output is rising.  </li>
<li>Like 1990-95 (post-USSR's fall), world steel output declined 33mn tonnes in 2020-25 led by China's 104mn decline -- caused by its overcapacity. Other countries' output grows, while China reins-in overcapacity. </li>
<li>Having accounted for 90% of increased world steel output in 2000-2020, China is focused on 'new industries'. FAI in steel will decline. Non-China steel producing countries/companies will continue to benefit. </li>
</ul>


For the sixth consecutive year, China's steel output is declining (-3.9%YoY in Jan-May'26). World steel output is declining for the 5th consecutive year, but India/US/Germany steel output is rising.  
Like 1990-95 (post-USSR's fall), world steel output declined 33mn tonnes in 2020-25 led by China's 104mn decline -- caused by its overcapacity. Other countries' output grows, while China reins-in overcapacity. 
Having accounted for 90% of increased world steel output in 2000-2020, China is focused on 'new industries'. FAI in steel will decline. Non-China steel producing countries/companies will continue to benefit. 


Steel as a Bellwether of Global Industrial Cycles: Climbing Out of China's Shadow

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>The Indian steel industry faced a highly disappointing 9MFY26 driven by multi-year low prices, persistent Chinese dumping, and severely delayed post-monsoon infrastructure restocking. </li>
<li>A robust Q4FY26 turnaround is now highly expected, driven by a sharp rebound in domestic realisations and condensed pent-up pre-monsoon project execution demand. </li>
<li>However, this bullish outlook faces significant downside risks post Q4FY26 from sequential coking coal inflation threatening margins and escalating geopolitical tensions disrupting global supply chains.</li>
</ul>


The Indian steel industry faced a highly disappointing 9MFY26 driven by multi-year low prices, persistent Chinese dumping, and severely delayed post-monsoon infrastructure restocking. 
A robust Q4FY26 turnaround is now highly expected, driven by a sharp rebound in domestic realisations and condensed pent-up pre-monsoon project execution demand. 
However, this bullish outlook faces significant downside risks post Q4FY26 from sequential coking coal inflation threatening margins and escalating geopolitical tensions disrupting global supply chains.


India Steel Industry: Should We Expect a Turnaround from Q4FY26?

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>51 companies recorded insider acquisitions in September 2026 — the broadest monthly cohort in recent months.</li>
<li>We highlight large and small cap companies that experienced significant insider buying during September 2026, as reported on the stock exchanges.</li>
<li>We also present key sectors which saw insider buying during the month along with names which have moved significantly above/below the insider buying price.</li>
</ul>


51 companies recorded insider acquisitions in September 2026 — the broadest monthly cohort in recent months.
We highlight large and small cap companies that experienced significant insider buying during September 2026, as reported on the stock exchanges.
We also present key sectors which saw insider buying during the month along with names which have moved significantly above/below the insider buying price.


Insider Activity: Who Is Buying Their Own Stock During the Market Correction? – September 2026

<ul>
<li>On 31-Dec-25, the Indian government notified a three year safeguard duty on flat steel imports, starting at 12% in Year 1 to counter predatory pricing from China and Vietnam.</li>
<li>This structural shift addresses a long-standing grievance of domestic mills, effectively creating a 10% price premium over imports and reversing the margin erosion caused by excess global capacity.</li>
<li>With domestic HRC prices expected to climb 10%, the duty provides a significant EBITDA kicker for Indian Steel Companies, signaling a multi-year recovery phase for the sector.</li>
</ul>


On 31-Dec-25, the Indian government notified a three year safeguard duty on flat steel imports, starting at 12% in Year 1 to counter predatory pricing from China and Vietnam.
This structural shift addresses a long-standing grievance of domestic mills, effectively creating a 10% price premium over imports and reversing the margin erosion caused by excess global capacity.
With domestic HRC prices expected to climb 10%, the duty provides a significant EBITDA kicker for Indian Steel Companies, signaling a multi-year recovery phase for the sector.


Indian Steel: Safeguard Duty Unleashed— A 12% Firewall for the Domestic Bull Run

<ul>
<li>The government's 300 MT crude steel capacity target by 2030 is now in full swing, anchored by ArcelorMittal's newly-cleared INR1.5 lakh crore greenfield project and aggressive brownfield by other players.</li>
<li>This signals a multi-lakh-crore capex super-cycle, moving from planning to execution. The 14-month fast-track approval for AM/NS in Andhra Pradesh provides a new, de-risked template for mega-projects.</li>
<li>While execution is accelerating, the sector's profitability hinges on two key variables: managing persistent Chinese imports and securing the massive volume of coking coal required to fuel this expansion.</li>
</ul>


The government's 300 MT crude steel capacity target by 2030 is now in full swing, anchored by ArcelorMittal's newly-cleared INR1.5 lakh crore greenfield project and aggressive brownfield by other players.
This signals a multi-lakh-crore capex super-cycle, moving from planning to execution. The 14-month fast-track approval for AM/NS in Andhra Pradesh provides a new, de-risked template for mega-projects.
While execution is accelerating, the sector's profitability hinges on two key variables: managing persistent Chinese imports and securing the massive volume of coking coal required to fuel this expansion.


Thematic Report: Forging a 300 MT Behemoth as India’s Steel Capex Super-Cycle Accelerates

India

Jindal Steel Limited manufactures steel products. The Company offers steel rails, parallel flange beams and columns, angles and channels, plates, and coils, as well as engages in the power, mining, manufacturing, and infrastructure construction businesses. Jindal Steel serves customers worldwide.

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Jindal Steel (JINDALST IN)

Steel as a Bellwether of Global Industrial Cycles: Climbing Out of China's Shadow

China's steel output is declining for the sixth successive year, while India, US, Germany see growth. China's FAI in old industries will slump...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Steel Industry: Should We Expect a Turnaround from Q4FY26?

Indian steel industry had a tough 9MFY26 but is expected to see a turnaround in Q4FY26, though risks remain due to coking coal inflation and...

Nimish Maheshwari

Insider Activity: Who Is Buying Their Own Stock During the Market Correction? – September 2026

Insight on insider buying in Sep 2026 — the broadest monthly cohort in recent months -highlighting key sectors along with names which have moved...

Sreemant Dudhoria

Indian Steel: Safeguard Duty Unleashed— A 12% Firewall for the Domestic Bull Run

Indian government imposes 3-year safeguard duty on flat steel imports to counter predatory pricing, creating price premium for domestic mills and...

Nimish Maheshwari

Thematic Report: Forging a 300 MT Behemoth as India’s Steel Capex Super-Cycle Accelerates

Government's ambitious steel capacity target by 2030 gains momentum with ArcelorMittal's massive greenfield project and industry-wide capex super...

Nimish Maheshwari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Steel as a Bellwether of Global Industrial Cycles: Climbing Out of China's Shadow

​China's steel output is declining for the sixth successive year, while India, US, Germany see growth. China's FAI in old industries will slump...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Steel Industry: Should We Expect a Turnaround from Q4FY26?

​Indian steel industry had a tough 9MFY26 but is expected to see a turnaround in Q4FY26, though risks remain due to coking coal inflation and...

Nimish Maheshwari

Insider Activity: Who Is Buying Their Own Stock During the Market Correction? – September 2026

Insight on insider buying in Sep 2026 — the broadest monthly cohort in recent months -highlighting key sectors along with names which have moved...

Sreemant Dudhoria

Indian Steel: Safeguard Duty Unleashed— A 12% Firewall for the Domestic Bull Run

​Indian government imposes 3-year safeguard duty on flat steel imports to counter predatory pricing, creating price premium for domestic mills and...

Nimish Maheshwari

Thematic Report: Forging a 300 MT Behemoth as India’s Steel Capex Super-Cycle Accelerates

​Government's ambitious steel capacity target by 2030 gains momentum with ArcelorMittal's massive greenfield project and industry-wide capex super...

Nimish Maheshwari

China's steel output is declining for the sixth successive year, while India, US, Germany see growth. China's FAI in old industries will slump...

Indian steel industry had a tough 9MFY26 but is expected to see a turnaround in Q4FY26, though risks remain due to coking coal inflation and...

Indian government imposes 3-year safeguard duty on flat steel imports to counter predatory pricing, creating price premium for domestic mills and...

Government's ambitious steel capacity target by 2030 gains momentum with ArcelorMittal's massive greenfield project and industry-wide capex super...