Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q1 FY26 saw stable production but weaker volumes, with EBITDA/t surging 35% QoQ to ₹15,680 on coal savings and higher VAS mix.</li>
<li>Capacity ramp-up to 15.9 MT by FY27, coupled with &gt;70% VAS share, drives a strong ~40% PAT CAGR through FY29.</li>
<li>Trades at 16.2× P/E and 9.2× EV/EBITDA (FY26E), offering upside potential versus JSW’s premium multiples.</li>
</ul>


Q1 FY26 saw stable production but weaker volumes, with EBITDA/t surging 35% QoQ to ₹15,680 on coal savings and higher VAS mix.
Capacity ramp-up to 15.9 MT by FY27, coupled with &gt;70% VAS share, drives a strong ~40% PAT CAGR through FY29.
Trades at 16.2× P/E and 9.2× EV/EBITDA (FY26E), offering upside potential versus JSW’s premium multiples.


Jindal Steel Ltd (JINDALSTEL IN): Margin Resilience Amid Volume Softness; Capex-Fueled Growth Intact

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

<ul>
<li>Insider buying spanned across 40+ stocks in June 2025, highlighting continued conviction among promoters, directors, and trusts.</li>
<li>While, there were fewer companies with market cap above USD 1 bn which saw insider buying, this number was significantly higher (35 count) in smaller names.</li>
<li>Companies which have zoomed after the insider purchases include - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lt-foods-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20784:1" rel="noopener">LT Foods Ltd (LTFO IN)</a> (+10%), Valor Estate (+11%). In smaller names - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/man-industries-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20233:1" rel="noopener">Man Industries (India) (MAN IN)</a> (+88%)</li>
</ul>


Insider buying spanned across 40+ stocks in June 2025, highlighting continued conviction among promoters, directors, and trusts.
While, there were fewer companies with market cap above USD 1 bn which saw insider buying, this number was significantly higher (35 count) in smaller names.
Companies which have zoomed after the insider purchases include - LT Foods Ltd (LTFO IN) (+10%), Valor Estate (+11%). In smaller names - Man Industries (India) (MAN IN) (+88%)


India Insider Buying – June '25: Strong Activity in Small Caps, Limited Participation in Large Caps.

<ul>
<li>FY25 steel production grew 2% YoY to 8.12 MT; adjusted EBITDA stood at Rs9,570 crore with EBITDA/t of Rs12,008; net debt/EBITDA improved to 1.26x.</li>
<li>Major projects including BF2, BOS2, CRM complex, slurry pipeline, and SBPP are targeted for commissioning by FY26-end, expanding steel capacity to 14.45 MTPA.</li>
<li>Near-Term priorities are volume ramp-up, improving cost efficiency through captive resources and logistics, and maintaining strict capital discipline with net debt/EBITDA below 1.5x.</li>
</ul>


FY25 steel production grew 2% YoY to 8.12 MT; adjusted EBITDA stood at Rs9,570 crore with EBITDA/t of Rs12,008; net debt/EBITDA improved to 1.26x.
Major projects including BF2, BOS2, CRM complex, slurry pipeline, and SBPP are targeted for commissioning by FY26-end, expanding steel capacity to 14.45 MTPA.
Near-Term priorities are volume ramp-up, improving cost efficiency through captive resources and logistics, and maintaining strict capital discipline with net debt/EBITDA below 1.5x.


Commissioning Milestones Critical as JSPL Enters Peak Expansion Phase

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The company is in the final stages of commissioning its INR 31,000 crore capex plan, accompanied by strong promoter buying in recent months</li>
<li>The new capacity is expected to improve margins through deeper backward integration while also expanding its value-added product mix.</li>
<li>With secured fuel, captive power, and value-added downstream capacity, it is poised to emerge as an infrastructure powerhouse. A steel price recovery would further amplify gains.</li>
</ul>


The company is in the final stages of commissioning its INR 31,000 crore capex plan, accompanied by strong promoter buying in recent months
The new capacity is expected to improve margins through deeper backward integration while also expanding its value-added product mix.
With secured fuel, captive power, and value-added downstream capacity, it is poised to emerge as an infrastructure powerhouse. A steel price recovery would further amplify gains.


The Beat Ideas: Jindal Steel & Power, A 31000Cr Mega Capex Plan

<ul>
<li>Strong focus on capacity enhancement. Increasing steelmaking capacity by 65% over the next 3 years to 15.9mt.</li>
<li>Recent margin dip provides attractive entry point. Promoters/insiders have bought into recent decline in stock price</li>
<li>Attractive long-term play on rising domestic steel demand. Low debt levels at &lt;1.4x EBITDA allows for steady capacity addition. </li>
</ul>


Strong focus on capacity enhancement. Increasing steelmaking capacity by 65% over the next 3 years to 15.9mt.
Recent margin dip provides attractive entry point. Promoters/insiders have bought into recent decline in stock price
Attractive long-term play on rising domestic steel demand. Low debt levels at &lt;1.4x EBITDA allows for steady capacity addition. 


Jindal Steel & Power (JSP IN) - Cyclical Downturn Provides Attractive Entry Point

India

Jindal Steel Limited manufactures steel products. The Company offers steel rails, parallel flange beams and columns, angles and channels, plates, and coils, as well as engages in the power, mining, manufacturing, and infrastructure construction businesses. Jindal Steel serves customers worldwide.

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Jindal Steel (JINDALST IN)

Jindal Steel Ltd (JINDALSTEL IN): Margin Resilience Amid Volume Softness; Capex-Fueled Growth Intact

Q1 FY26 showed stable production but weaker volumes, EBITDA/t surged 35% QoQ to ₹15,680 on coal savings and higher VAS mix. Capacity ramp-up to...

Rahul Jain

India Insider Buying – June '25: Strong Activity in Small Caps, Limited Participation in Large Caps.

India Insider buying spanned across 40+ stocks in June 2025. Strong activity seen in small cap companies and few companies in large cap.

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Commissioning Milestones Critical as JSPL Enters Peak Expansion Phase

FY25 saw 2% growth in steel production to 8.12 MT, with plans to expand capacity to 14.45 MTPA by FY26-end. Priorities include volume ramp-up,...

Rahul Jain

The Beat Ideas: Jindal Steel & Power, A 31000Cr Mega Capex Plan

Company nearing completion of INR 31,000 crore capex plan with strong promoter buying, set to improve margins and emerge as infrastructure...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Jindal Steel & Power (JSP IN) - Cyclical Downturn Provides Attractive Entry Point

Steel company plans to increase capacity by 65% in 3 years, insiders buying on recent dip in stock price, low debt levels make it an attractive...

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Jindal Steel Ltd (JINDALSTEL IN): Margin Resilience Amid Volume Softness; Capex-Fueled Growth Intact

​Q1 FY26 showed stable production but weaker volumes, EBITDA/t surged 35% QoQ to ₹15,680 on coal savings and higher VAS mix. Capacity ramp-up to...

Rahul Jain

India Insider Buying – June '25: Strong Activity in Small Caps, Limited Participation in Large Caps.

India Insider buying spanned across 40+ stocks in June 2025. Strong activity seen in small cap companies and few companies in large cap.

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Commissioning Milestones Critical as JSPL Enters Peak Expansion Phase

​FY25 saw 2% growth in steel production to 8.12 MT, with plans to expand capacity to 14.45 MTPA by FY26-end. Priorities include volume ramp-up,...

Rahul Jain

The Beat Ideas: Jindal Steel & Power, A 31000Cr Mega Capex Plan

​Company nearing completion of INR 31,000 crore capex plan with strong promoter buying, set to improve margins and emerge as infrastructure...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Jindal Steel & Power (JSP IN) - Cyclical Downturn Provides Attractive Entry Point

​Steel company plans to increase capacity by 65% in 3 years, insiders buying on recent dip in stock price, low debt levels make it an attractive...

Rahul Jain

Q1 FY26 showed stable production but weaker volumes, EBITDA/t surged 35% QoQ to ₹15,680 on coal savings and higher VAS mix. Capacity ramp-up to...

FY25 saw 2% growth in steel production to 8.12 MT, with plans to expand capacity to 14.45 MTPA by FY26-end. Priorities include volume ramp-up,...

Company nearing completion of INR 31,000 crore capex plan with strong promoter buying, set to improve margins and emerge as infrastructure...

Steel company plans to increase capacity by 65% in 3 years, insiders buying on recent dip in stock price, low debt levels make it an attractive...