Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Contrary to battery, Chinese renewable energy companies have largely been absent in EU's solar capacity buildup.We believe the main reason is supply chain structure differences;</li>
<li>One year after we tallied the capacity in C2Q23,11% of the tallied capacity have been cancelled, but another 66% more have been added, among which, however,no ingot or polysilicon projects; </li>
<li>Wacker Chemie's 39GW polysilicon project needs to supply ~10GW of ingot and wafer,~13GW of cell and ~52GW of module, comparing to EU's 2023 installation of only 56GW, which is insufficient.</li>
</ul>


Contrary to battery, Chinese renewable energy companies have largely been absent in EU's solar capacity buildup.We believe the main reason is supply chain structure differences;
One year after we tallied the capacity in C2Q23,11% of the tallied capacity have been cancelled, but another 66% more have been added, among which, however,no ingot or polysilicon projects; 
Wacker Chemie's 39GW polysilicon project needs to supply ~10GW of ingot and wafer,~13GW of cell and ~52GW of module, comparing to EU's 2023 installation of only 56GW, which is insufficient.


EU's Battery and Solar Investments, One Year After, Part II

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

<ul>
<li>The biggest debate in solar PV technology today is the rapid adoption of N-type solar cells (TopCon), championed by Jinko, vs. the cautious approach... </li>
<li>To prolong the life cycle of the current P-type solar cell (PERC), purposely represented by LONGi; We believe this division is misleading.</li>
<li>LONGi’s strategy is far from simply squeeze out the last penny of PERC. We believe it represents a new thinking trying to set LONGi apart of the old investment logic.</li>
</ul>


The biggest debate in solar PV technology today is the rapid adoption of N-type solar cells (TopCon), championed by Jinko, vs. the cautious approach... 
To prolong the life cycle of the current P-type solar cell (PERC), purposely represented by LONGi; We believe this division is misleading.
LONGi’s strategy is far from simply squeeze out the last penny of PERC. We believe it represents a new thinking trying to set LONGi apart of the old investment logic.


[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: In Solar PV Winners Go to One Who Count the Pennies

<ul>
<li>C1H23 solar PV and wind power capacity addition grew 154% and 72% YoY in China, significantly above 2022 growth. With the real estate fallout, renewable capex will likely stay robust. </li>
<li>We view hydrogen being constrained by its end use in the near future. Incremental renewable capex will still go to solar and wind;</li>
<li>Capacity addition is a long-term problem. But we don’t think overcapacity is an issue now. Capacity investment in upgrading technology is a plus. The more should be the better.</li>
</ul>


C1H23 solar PV and wind power capacity addition grew 154% and 72% YoY in China, significantly above 2022 growth. With the real estate fallout, renewable capex will likely stay robust. 
We view hydrogen being constrained by its end use in the near future. Incremental renewable capex will still go to solar and wind;
Capacity addition is a long-term problem. But we don’t think overcapacity is an issue now. Capacity investment in upgrading technology is a plus. The more should be the better.


[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Is There a Good Capacity War from China?

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Cover Story: Why the yuan is suddenly gaining international traction</li><li>China names new top Communist Party leadership for next five-year term</li><li>A younger generation is now the majority in Communist Party’s elite body</li></ul>

Cover Story: Why the yuan is suddenly gaining international tractionChina names new top Communist Party leadership for next five-year termA younger generation is now the majority in Communist Party’s elite body

CX Daily: Why The Yuan Is Suddenly Gaining International Traction

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing signs that suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes and Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical support.</li>
<li>This includes the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI ACWI (local currency), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, MSCI ACWI Technology (IXN-US), Consumer Discretionary (RXI-US), Financials (IXG-US), Industrials and (EXI-US) -- add exposure.</li>
<li>While our overall outlook remains neutral, we continue to see a plethora of attractive buying opportunities in the new leaders.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing signs that suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes and Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical support.
This includes the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI ACWI (local currency), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, MSCI ACWI Technology (IXN-US), Consumer Discretionary (RXI-US), Financials (IXG-US), Industrials and (EXI-US) -- add exposure.
While our overall outlook remains neutral, we continue to see a plethora of attractive buying opportunities in the new leaders.


Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

China

Jinko Solar Co., Ltd. manufactures photovoltaic products. The Company develops, manufactures, and markets crystalline ingots, wafers, mono-crystalline photovoltaic panels, and multi-crystalline photovoltaic panels. Jinko Solar markets its products worldwide.

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Jinko Solar (688223 CH)

EU's Battery and Solar Investments, One Year After, Part II

Chinese companies have been absent in building capacity in EU, due to lack of upstream material supply. EU's own capacity building is cautious and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: In Solar PV Winners Go to One Who Count the Pennies

LONGi’s strategy is far from simply squeeze out the last penny of PERC. We believe it represents a new thinking trying to set LONGi apart of the...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Is There a Good Capacity War from China?

Capacity addition is a long-term problem. But we don’t think overcapacity is an issue now. Capacity investment in upgrading technology is a plus....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

CX Daily: Why The Yuan Is Suddenly Gaining International Traction

Cover Story: Why the yuan is suddenly gaining international traction. China names new top Communist Party leadership for next five-year term

Caixin Global

Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

Signs suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes & Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical...

Vermilion Research

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