IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The spread to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toridoll-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8193:1" rel="noopener">TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation (3397 JP)</a>’s HK$1.58 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tam-jai-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34227:1" rel="noopener">Tam Jai International (2217 HK)</a> has risen to 9.7% ahead of the scheme document's release. </li>
<li>Several readers have asked whether the Tam Jai offer will mirror the Goldlion and Soundwill deal break. The schemes share similarities but are also different in several ways.</li>
<li>The scheme's vote risk has undoubtedly increased partly due to the recent 2025 results and deal breaks. This situation warrants a safety-first approach.  </li>
</ul>


The spread to TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation (3397 JP)’s HK$1.58 offer for Tam Jai International (2217 HK) has risen to 9.7% ahead of the scheme document's release. 
Several readers have asked whether the Tam Jai offer will mirror the Goldlion and Soundwill deal break. The schemes share similarities but are also different in several ways.
The scheme's vote risk has undoubtedly increased partly due to the recent 2025 results and deal breaks. This situation warrants a safety-first approach.  


Tam Jai (2217 HK): Anxiety Creeps in Ahead of the Scheme Document

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 16th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CCB, BOC, CMB, China Shenhua Energy, CNOOC, Tencent, Xiaomi, SMIC, Cosco Shipping.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 16th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for CCB, BOC, CMB, China Shenhua Energy, CNOOC, Tencent, Xiaomi, SMIC, Cosco Shipping.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (May 16th): Biggest Weekly Outflows in a Year

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The HK$7.19/share IPO pricing is attractive. The valuation safety margin reserved for the IPO of Green Tea may be mainly due to the management's consideration of attracting long-term funds.</li>
<li>If the market sentiment is positive, combined with conservative IPO pricing, Green Tea would still perform well after listing. For example, valuation has the potential to recover to 15x P/E.</li>
<li>However, when scale expansion fails to bring efficiency improvement,“cracks” appear in the core logic of the capital story.So, taking profits when Green Tea's valuation exceeds Xiaocaiyuan is a good option.  </li>
</ul>


The HK$7.19/share IPO pricing is attractive. The valuation safety margin reserved for the IPO of Green Tea may be mainly due to the management's consideration of attracting long-term funds.
If the market sentiment is positive, combined with conservative IPO pricing, Green Tea would still perform well after listing. For example, valuation has the potential to recover to 15x P/E.
However, when scale expansion fails to bring efficiency improvement,“cracks” appear in the core logic of the capital story.So, taking profits when Green Tea's valuation exceeds Xiaocaiyuan is a good option.  


Pre-IPO Green Tea Group - Thoughts on IPO Pricing and Valuation Outlook

LXJ International Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>LXJ’s revenue/net profit showed an upward trend from 2022 to 24Q1-Q3, but growth momentum was decreasing. The same store sales growth dropped significantly. Profit margin is also lower than peers. </li>
<li>There’re significant differences in dietary habits and tastes across China, making it difficult for LXJ to expand nationwide. So, the future growth potential may not be as good as expected.</li>
<li>In December 2021, valuation of LXJ had reached RMB18 billion. Since LXJ’s revenue growth/profit margin are inferior to Xiaocaiyuan, we think the valuation of LXJ should be lower than Xiaocaiyuan.</li>
</ul>


LXJ’s revenue/net profit showed an upward trend from 2022 to 24Q1-Q3, but growth momentum was decreasing. The same store sales growth dropped significantly. Profit margin is also lower than peers. 
There’re significant differences in dietary habits and tastes across China, making it difficult for LXJ to expand nationwide. So, the future growth potential may not be as good as expected.
In December 2021, valuation of LXJ had reached RMB18 billion. Since LXJ’s revenue growth/profit margin are inferior to Xiaocaiyuan, we think the valuation of LXJ should be lower than Xiaocaiyuan.


Pre-IPO LXJ International Holdings - The Pain Points and the Outlook

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chagee-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45011:1" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US)</a>, a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$382-411 million through a Nasdaq IPO.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chagee-holdings-cha-us-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:181653" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chagee-holdings-cha-us-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:182085" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bear Case</a>.</li>
<li>There are four cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests Chagee is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Chagee Holdings (CHA US), a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$382-411 million through a Nasdaq IPO.
We previously discussed the IPO in Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case and Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bear Case.
There are four cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests Chagee is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.


Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Valuation Insights

China

Jiumaojiu International Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, focuses on manufactures food products. Jiumaojiu International Holdings serves customers in China.

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Jiumaojiu (9922 HK)

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Anxiety Creeps in Ahead of the Scheme Document

Arbs cannot afford another HK deal break on their books. Recent events have undoubtedly increased the scheme's vote risk, warranting a safety-first...

Arun George

HK Connect Flows Weekly (May 16th): Biggest Weekly Outflows in a Year

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for CCB, BOC, CMB, China Shenhua Energy, CNOOC, Tencent,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO Green Tea Group - Thoughts on IPO Pricing and Valuation Outlook

Green Tea's IPO pricing shows good valuation safety margin. When scale expansion fail to bring efficiency improvement,“cracks” appear in the core...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO LXJ International Holdings - The Pain Points and the Outlook

LXJ's revenue and profit are on the rise but growth is slowing, facing challenges in expanding nationwide due to regional dietary differences....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests Chagee is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Anxiety Creeps in Ahead of the Scheme Document

Arbs cannot afford another HK deal break on their books. Recent events have undoubtedly increased the scheme's vote risk, warranting a safety-first...

Arun George

HK Connect Flows Weekly (May 16th): Biggest Weekly Outflows in a Year

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for CCB, BOC, CMB, China Shenhua Energy, CNOOC, Tencent,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO Green Tea Group - Thoughts on IPO Pricing and Valuation Outlook

​Green Tea's IPO pricing shows good valuation safety margin. When scale expansion fail to bring efficiency improvement,“cracks” appear in the core...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO LXJ International Holdings - The Pain Points and the Outlook

​LXJ's revenue and profit are on the rise but growth is slowing, facing challenges in expanding nationwide due to regional dietary differences....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests Chagee is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

Green Tea's IPO pricing shows good valuation safety margin. When scale expansion fail to bring efficiency improvement,“cracks” appear in the core...

LXJ's revenue and profit are on the rise but growth is slowing, facing challenges in expanding nationwide due to regional dietary differences....