Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Results for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15904:1" rel="noopener">Omron Corp (6645 JP)</a> Partial Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC (4483 JP)</a> are out. </li>
<li>The Pro-Ration was 51.63%, at the lower end of my initial estimate of 50-58% range, and at the higher end of my revised range (42-56%).</li>
<li>The pro-ration, the nature of the shapes (technical term) tendered, and what that suggests for Noritsu Koki's position suggests the back end could be more squeezy than not.</li>
</ul>


Results for the Omron Corp (6645 JP) Partial Tender Offer for JMDC (4483 JP) are out. 
The Pro-Ration was 51.63%, at the lower end of my initial estimate of 50-58% range, and at the higher end of my revised range (42-56%).
The pro-ration, the nature of the shapes (technical term) tendered, and what that suggests for Noritsu Koki's position suggests the back end could be more squeezy than not.


JMDC (4483) Partial Offer Results - Tough Tender, I'd Watch For "THE Block" (Maybe)

<ul>
<li>When this was launched, it traded more a fair bit on the first day, but then more volume traded than I expected. This could mean a couple of things.</li>
<li>Re-Reading the original doc leaves nuances. The change in management responsibilities this past summer make some holders less certain. It's complicated. </li>
<li>There have been several blocks traded, and a large short instantiated. And if one has a more conservative estimate at a higher top-end participation, the back end gets uglier.</li>
</ul>


When this was launched, it traded more a fair bit on the first day, but then more volume traded than I expected. This could mean a couple of things.
Re-Reading the original doc leaves nuances. The change in management responsibilities this past summer make some holders less certain. It's complicated. 
There have been several blocks traded, and a large short instantiated. And if one has a more conservative estimate at a higher top-end participation, the back end gets uglier.


JMDC (4483) Partial Offer Update (Updated Pro-Ration Range)

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>For the month of September 2023, 8 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$2bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in September was 37%. The average YTD is 35%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of September 2023, 8 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$2bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in September was 37%. The average YTD is 35%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sept 2023: JMDC, Pact, Takisawa, Golden Eagle Energy, Dic Corp

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-robotics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36816:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Robotics (454910 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (1822695D US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vng-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26716:1" rel="noopener">VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integral-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40028:1" rel="noopener">Integral Corporation (5842 JP)</a> IPOs and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aquila-acquisition-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35435:1" rel="noopener">Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK)</a> de-SPAC.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC (4483 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intage-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3151:1" rel="noopener">Intage Holdings (4326 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mason-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17664:1" rel="noopener">Mason Group Holdings (273 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Doosan Robotics (454910 KS), ARM Holdings (1822695D US), VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US), Integral Corporation (5842 JP) IPOs and Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK) de-SPAC.
Event-Driven developments - JMDC (4483 JP), Intage Holdings (4326 JP), Mason Group Holdings (273 HK), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU). 


Weekly Deals Digest (10 Sep) - JMDC, Intage, Mason, Liontown, Newcrest, ARM, Integral, Doosan, VNG

<ul>
<li>In February 2022, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/noritsu-koki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3091:1" rel="noopener">Noritsu Koki (7744 JP)</a> sold a chunk of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC (4483 JP)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15904:1" rel="noopener">Omron Corp (6645 JP)</a> for nearly US$1bn. 7mos later, Omron supported a primary offering.</li>
<li>Now Omron is going to 50+%, as Noritsu Koki is getting out. Other investors have to participate for this to succeed. </li>
<li>The question of pro-ration may be a question of Elmer vs Mr Partridge. But Elmer has a point here. </li>
</ul>


In February 2022, Noritsu Koki (7744 JP) sold a chunk of JMDC (4483 JP) to Omron Corp (6645 JP) for nearly US$1bn. 7mos later, Omron supported a primary offering.
Now Omron is going to 50+%, as Noritsu Koki is getting out. Other investors have to participate for this to succeed. 
The question of pro-ration may be a question of Elmer vs Mr Partridge. But Elmer has a point here. 


Omron Partial Offer for JMDC (4483) - The Engagement Is On! This Is the Script, This Is the Timing

Japan

JMDC Inc. offers information services. The Company provides medical data statistics, life insurance data statistics, health data platform management, and other services. JMDC provides its services throughout Japan.

JMDC (4483 JP)

JMDC (4483) Partial Offer Results - Tough Tender, I'd Watch For "THE Block" (Maybe)

JMDC Partial Tender Offer Results are out at 51.63% fill ratio. That is "in-line" but suggests that certain people did not tender or lend. THAT...

Travis Lundy

JMDC (4483) Partial Offer Update (Updated Pro-Ration Range)

JMDC has traded a bit rich to the probabilities. I have assumed that meant someone has borrow, or someone really likes the back end. I think the...

Travis Lundy

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sept 2023: JMDC, Pact, Takisawa, Golden Eagle Energy, Dic Corp

For the month of September, 8 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$2bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Weekly Deals Digest (10 Sep) - JMDC, Intage, Mason, Liontown, Newcrest, ARM, Integral, Doosan, VNG

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (JMDC, Intage, Mason, Liontown, Newcrest, OreCorp, United Malt, MPI) and ECM (Doosan...

Arun George

Omron Partial Offer for JMDC (4483) - The Engagement Is On! This Is the Script, This Is the Timing

The Omron TOB for JMDC is designed to consolidate JMDC, and give both Noritsu Koki and minorities a chance to sell higher. We have an Elmer vs Mr...

Travis Lundy