Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

With the Section Transfer Requirements to move to TSE1 becoming more stringent, some small-cap candidates have been rushing to enter TSE1 so that they can avoid having to face the new regulations under which they may struggle to qualify. This trend has resulted in a "flurry" of TOPIX Inclusion Trades in the month of December 2020 as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> predicted in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-tse-s-listing-criteria-revisions-part-i" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43150" rel="noopener">The TSE's Listing Criteria Revisions - Part I</a>.
<blockquote>
For index inclusion and event traders taking advantage of a large number of interesting trades, the number will suddenly go waaaay down. This means <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a> likely has a flurry of interesting trade ideas to read about in the next few months, but after about March next year, things will drop off in a hurry.
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In this insight, I have provided performance updates for 11 "Live" event stocks which are expected to have Inclusion Events at the end of January 2021 and 6 "Post" event stocks that completed their Inclusion Events at the end of November 2020 and December 2020. Furthermore, I have also highlighted some interesting Pre-event situations involving stocks that are likely to become TSE1-promotion candidates in the near future.

With the Section Transfer Requirements to move to TSE1 becoming more stringent, some small-cap candidates have been rushing to enter TSE1 so that they can avoid having to face the new regulations under which they may struggle to qualify. This trend has resulted in a "flurry" of TOPIX Inclusion Trades in the month of December 2020 as Travis Lundy predicted in The TSE's Listing Criteria Revisions - Part I.

For index inclusion and event traders taking advantage of a large number of interesting trades, the number will suddenly go waaaay down. This means Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA likely has a flurry of interesting trade ideas to read about in the next few months, but after about March next year, things will drop off in a hurry.

In this insight, I have provided performance updates for 11 "Live" event stocks which are expected to have Inclusion Events at the end of January 2021 and 6 "Post" event stocks that completed their Inclusion Events at the end of November 2020 and December 2020. Furthermore, I have also highlighted some interesting Pre-event situations involving stocks that are likely to become TSE1-promotion candidates in the near future. 

Quantitative Analysis

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When Japanese small-cap stocks listed on JASDAQ, MOTHERS, and the Second Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange aim at the big leagues and apply for reassignment to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and are accepted, it causes significant events to occur. This triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index which means passive funds tracking TOPIX need to buy on an inclusion event. This opens up several interesting trading opportunities for investors. 
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In this insight, I have provided performance updates for 7 "Live" event stocks which are expected to have Inclusion Events at the end of December 2020 or January 2021 and 8 "Post" event stocks that completed their Inclusion Events at the end of October 2020 and November 2020. Furthermore, I have also highlighted some interesting Pre-event situations involving stocks that are likely to become TSE1-promotion candidates in the near future. 
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When Japanese small-cap stocks listed on JASDAQ, MOTHERS, and the Second Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange aim at the big leagues and apply for reassignment to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and are accepted, it causes significant events to occur. This triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index which means passive funds tracking TOPIX need to buy on an inclusion event. This opens up several interesting trading opportunities for investors. 


In this insight, I have provided performance updates for 7 "Live" event stocks which are expected to have Inclusion Events at the end of December 2020 or January 2021 and 8 "Post" event stocks that completed their Inclusion Events at the end of October 2020 and November 2020. Furthermore, I have also highlighted some interesting Pre-event situations involving stocks that are likely to become TSE1-promotion candidates in the near future. 


There are currently ~1,500 stocks listed in the Mothers, JASDAQ, and Second Sections of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. As time passes, some of these stocks will "graduate" to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE1), triggering inclusion into the TOPIX Index causing passive funds tracking TOPIX to buy them on an inclusion event. This presents various trading opportunities in several phases of this event timeline.  Being able to identify such candidates at a "Pre-event" phase (before the TSE reassignment is confirmed) can unlock great value for speculative bets as we recently witnessed in the case of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusion-4931-jp-shinnihonseiyaku" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45660" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusion (4931 JP): Shinnihonseiyaku</a> where the stock gained 90%+ in the ~5 months leading to the TSE1-reassignment announcement. However, in July 2020, TSE introduced more stringent new Section Transfer Requirements and TSE1 Listing Criteria adding a new layer of complexity to this prediction process, especially during the period of transition from the old rules to the new rules. In this insight, we take a look at how some of the potential TSE1 candidates will fare against these New Section Transfer Requirements and evaluate their attractiveness at the Pre-event phase. <hr><div class="content-remarks">This insight is an update to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusion-pre-events-who-is-ready" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41091" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Events: Who Is Ready?</a>. Please refer to that insight for more information on the approach used in the below analysis. Note that some assumptions used in the analysis have changed since then. </div>

There are currently ~1,500 stocks listed in the Mothers, JASDAQ, and Second Sections of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. As time passes, some of these stocks will "graduate" to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE1), triggering inclusion into the TOPIX Index causing passive funds tracking TOPIX to buy them on an inclusion event. This presents various trading opportunities in several phases of this event timeline.  Being able to identify such candidates at a "Pre-event" phase (before the TSE reassignment is confirmed) can unlock great value for speculative bets as we recently witnessed in the case of TOPIX Inclusion (4931 JP): Shinnihonseiyaku where the stock gained 90%+ in the ~5 months leading to the TSE1-reassignment announcement. However, in July 2020, TSE introduced more stringent new Section Transfer Requirements and TSE1 Listing Criteria adding a new layer of complexity to this prediction process, especially during the period of transition from the old rules to the new rules. In this insight, we take a look at how some of the potential TSE1 candidates will fare against these New Section Transfer Requirements and evaluate their attractiveness at the Pre-event phase. This insight is an update to TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Events: Who Is Ready?. Please refer to that insight for more information on the approach used in the below analysis. Note that some assumptions used in the analysis have changed since then. 

TOPIX Inclusions:  New Regulations! Who Is READY? 2.0

The month of August has been a fairly quiet one as far as TSE1 promotion announcements go. At the time of writing, there has been only one TSE1 promotion so far this month - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusion-7059-jp-copro-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42694" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusion (7059 JP): COPRO Holdings</a> (though another was announced after the close today).  
In this month's summary, I have provided performance updates for our "Pre-event" strategies and discussed 9 "Post" events which involve stocks which had their Inclusion Events at the end of July and August 2020. 
As always, there is more below the fold.

The month of August has been a fairly quiet one as far as TSE1 promotion announcements go. At the time of writing, there has been only one TSE1 promotion so far this month - TOPIX Inclusion (7059 JP): COPRO Holdings (though another was announced after the close today).  
In this month's summary, I have provided performance updates for our "Pre-event" strategies and discussed 9 "Post" events which involve stocks which had their Inclusion Events at the end of July and August 2020. 
As always, there is more below the fold. 

In June 2020, we saw some interesting TSE1 Approval announcements including names like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuzuki-denki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8270:1" rel="noopener">Tsuzuki Denki (8157 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:602:1" rel="noopener">Mixi Inc (2121 JP)</a> which enjoyed strong price rallies following their announcements. As of end-June, there were 10 live pre-events, 5 live inclusion events, and a half dozen just-post-inclusion names which announced in April/May 2020 which entered TOPIX at the end of June and July. These were discussed in detail in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusion-trade-summary-june-2020" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40784" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusion Trade Summary: June 2020</a>. In this month's summary, I have provided updates on our "TOPIX Inclusion Pre-events Watchlist" and how a equally-weighted portfolio constructed according to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusion-pre-events-post-ipo-basket-trade-in-detail" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41411" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Events: Post-IPO Basket Trade in Detail</a> would have performed in the month of July. I have also provided a summary of six "Live Events" which are expected to have their TOPIX Inclusion events at the end of August 2020 and a list of four just-post-inclusion names which have had their Inclusion events at the end of May/June 2020. As always, there is more below the fold.

In June 2020, we saw some interesting TSE1 Approval announcements including names like Tsuzuki Denki (8157 JP) and Mixi Inc (2121 JP) which enjoyed strong price rallies following their announcements. As of end-June, there were 10 live pre-events, 5 live inclusion events, and a half dozen just-post-inclusion names which announced in April/May 2020 which entered TOPIX at the end of June and July. These were discussed in detail in TOPIX Inclusion Trade Summary: June 2020. In this month's summary, I have provided updates on our "TOPIX Inclusion Pre-events Watchlist" and how a equally-weighted portfolio constructed according to TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Events: Post-IPO Basket Trade in Detail would have performed in the month of July. I have also provided a summary of six "Live Events" which are expected to have their TOPIX Inclusion events at the end of August 2020 and a list of four just-post-inclusion names which have had their Inclusion events at the end of May/June 2020. As always, there is more below the fold.

Japan

JMDC Inc. offers information services. The Company provides medical data statistics, life insurance data statistics, health data platform management, and other services. JMDC provides its services throughout Japan.

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JMDC (4483 JP)

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Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

TOPIX Inclusions: New Regulations! Who Is READY? 2.0

The TSE has new Listing Rules and Criteria for TSE1 listing and promotion. That means new analysis on what pre-event trades. One TOP PICK to trade...

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A monthly round-up of TSE Section Transfer (upwards) and future index inclusion-related events including the high-return Quiddity Post-IPO Strategy

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

TOPIX Inclusion Trade Summary: July 2020

In June 2020, we saw some interesting TSE1 Approval announcements including names like Tsuzuki Denki (8157 JP) and Mixi Inc (2121 JP) which enjoyed...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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