European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Two gates cleared: Borrowing-limit and FY24 audit milestones complete; Sidara’s 30 p bid now hinges solely on A&amp;E execution by 31 Dec 2025.</li>
<li>Market discount persists: At 22 p, shares imply 30–35 % failure probability; downside largely priced, upside to 30 p offers 36 % absolute return.</li>
<li>Event-Driven focus: Binary risk now procedural, not strategic—spread likely to tighten toward high-20s once A&amp;E documentation confirmed.</li>
</ul>


Two gates cleared: Borrowing-limit and FY24 audit milestones complete; Sidara’s 30 p bid now hinges solely on A&amp;E execution by 31 Dec 2025.
Market discount persists: At 22 p, shares imply 30–35 % failure probability; downside largely priced, upside to 30 p offers 36 % absolute return.
Event-Driven focus: Binary risk now procedural, not strategic—spread likely to tighten toward high-20s once A&amp;E documentation confirmed.


Sidara / Wood Group – Audit Cleared, One Gate to Close

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 29/Nov, US crude inventories fell by 5.1m barrels, beating expectations of a 1.6m barrel decrease. However, gasoline and distillate stocks rose more than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 30 Bcf for the week ending 29/Nov. Inventories are 7.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>UBS raised its 12-month price target on Chevron. Shell and Equinor plan to merge their UK offshore oil and gas assets to create a new company.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 29/Nov, US crude inventories fell by 5.1m barrels, beating expectations of a 1.6m barrel decrease. However, gasoline and distillate stocks rose more than expected.
US natural gas inventories fell by 30 Bcf for the week ending 29/Nov. Inventories are 7.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.
UBS raised its 12-month price target on Chevron. Shell and Equinor plan to merge their UK offshore oil and gas assets to create a new company.


[ETP 2024/49] WTI Recovers on OPEC Extending Cuts; Henry Hub Drops on Volatile Weather Forecasts

Research from Superfluous Value, Superfluous Value

Superfluous Value

Research from Superfluous Value

Stock selection has rarely been as important as it is today. After a roaring decade for US markets and with signs of mania everywhere, the S&P 500 as over-priced as it has ever been.

But, there is better way. Superfluous Value is a contrarian, deep-dive into the markets forgotten by the 60/40 instos and indexing, momentum chasers. Where the hot money has long moved on, it leaves behind investments offering great safety and prospective returns.

I believe the 2020s will look diametrically opposite to the recent past, with Emerging Markets, the UK, Japan and commodities set to rip and I intend to be holding the best opportunities available as they do.

Please feel free to come along on the journey.

Contrarian Deep-Dive into the Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The UK remains one of my favourite hunting grounds and I’ve written about its challenges ad nauseam over the last few years.</li><li>But today, it’s particularly worth pointing out that an unusually large number of UK stocks are down significantly over the last month.</li><li>Many are for business specific reasons, but it’s almost uncanny the way UK stocks find a way to tank, even when much of the world is rallying.</li></ul>

The UK remains one of my favourite hunting grounds and I’ve written about its challenges ad nauseam over the last few years.But today, it’s particularly worth pointing out that an unusually large number of UK stocks are down significantly over the last month.Many are for business specific reasons, but it’s almost uncanny the way UK stocks find a way to tank, even when much of the world is rallying.

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>UK Energy is still under-owned.  22.1% of UK managers have zero exposure and 67.4% are positioned underweight.</li>
<li>Signs of a rotation are under way, driven by Value and Yield funds and mainly in Shell PLC and BP PLC.  </li>
<li>Missing from the picture is the return of Growth and Aggressive Growth managers, who remain lightly positioned and clearly unconvinced by the investment case at present. </li>
</ul>


UK Energy is still under-owned.  22.1% of UK managers have zero exposure and 67.4% are positioned underweight.
Signs of a rotation are under way, driven by Value and Yield funds and mainly in Shell PLC and BP PLC.  
Missing from the picture is the return of Growth and Aggressive Growth managers, who remain lightly positioned and clearly unconvinced by the investment case at present. 


UK Energy: Investors Split as Tentative Rotation Begins

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

As we highlighted in last week’s Int’l Compass, the weight of the evidence suggests commodities are in the early stages of a new secular bull market. Global Materials remains a favorite Sector overweight and we believe outperformance is likely to continue considering the Sector’s long-term bullish RS reversal. Additionally, we are upgrading equal-weighted Energy to overweight due to bullish price and RS inflections -- add exposure with a focus on small- and mid-caps.

As we highlighted in last week’s Int’l Compass, the weight of the evidence suggests commodities are in the early stages of a new secular bull market. Global Materials remains a favorite Sector overweight and we believe outperformance is likely to continue considering the Sector’s long-term bullish RS reversal. Additionally, we are upgrading equal-weighted Energy to overweight due to bullish price and RS inflections -- add exposure with a focus on small- and mid-caps.

Global Commodity-Related Equity Sectors In Secular Bull

United Kingdom

Wood is a British multinational engineering and consulting company that provides project management and technical services for energy and industrial markets. The company offers solutions in areas such as decarbonization, digitalization, asset optimization, and clean energy. Wood is headquartered in Aberdeen, Scotland, and was founded in 1961.

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Wood (WG/ LN)

Sidara / Wood Group – Audit Cleared, One Gate to Close

Wood clears audit and GM votes; only the A&E refinancing remains. At 22 p vs 30 p bid, the spread offers asymmetric upside as Sidara edges toward...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

[ETP 2024/49] WTI Recovers on OPEC Extending Cuts; Henry Hub Drops on Volatile Weather Forecasts

US crude inventories fell more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stocks rose. Natural gas inventories also fell, UBS raised Chevron's...

Mint Finance

Noteworthy UK Carnage

The UK remains one of my favourite hunting grounds and I’ve written about its challenges ad nauseam over the last few years.

Superfluous Value

UK Energy: Investors Split as Tentative Rotation Begins

UK managers are raising allocations to the Energy sector, driven by buying in BP and Shell PLC. However, the majority of funds remain underweight.

Steven Holden

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Sidara / Wood Group – Audit Cleared, One Gate to Close

Wood clears audit and GM votes; only the A&E refinancing remains. At 22 p vs 30 p bid, the spread offers asymmetric upside as Sidara edges toward...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

[ETP 2024/49] WTI Recovers on OPEC Extending Cuts; Henry Hub Drops on Volatile Weather Forecasts

​US crude inventories fell more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stocks rose. Natural gas inventories also fell, UBS raised Chevron's...

Mint Finance

Noteworthy UK Carnage

The UK remains one of my favourite hunting grounds and I’ve written about its challenges ad nauseam over the last few years.

Superfluous Value

UK Energy: Investors Split as Tentative Rotation Begins

UK managers are raising allocations to the Energy sector, driven by buying in BP and Shell PLC. However, the majority of funds remain underweight.

Steven Holden

Global Commodity-Related Equity Sectors In Secular Bull

We believe commodities are in the early stages of a new secular bull market. Global Materials & Energy remain our favorite Sector overweights - add...

Vermilion Research

US crude inventories fell more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stocks rose. Natural gas inventories also fell, UBS raised Chevron's...