Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning India / Equity Bottom-Up

Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning India

<ul>
<li>Our checks suggest <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-home-life-solutions-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6172:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Home &amp; Life Solutions India Ltd (JCHAC IN)</a> has lost market share this season. </li>
<li>Market share loss has come on the back of poor product quality due to focus on costs and competition, which is irreparable in spite of the strong dealer network. </li>
<li>Poor capital allocation, high receivables and low-profit margins, all warrant attention. </li>
</ul>


Our checks suggest Hitachi Home &amp; Life Solutions India Ltd (JCHAC IN) has lost market share this season. 
Market share loss has come on the back of poor product quality due to focus on costs and competition, which is irreparable in spite of the strong dealer network. 
Poor capital allocation, high receivables and low-profit margins, all warrant attention. 


Johnson Controls-Hitachi (JCHAC IN) | Irreparable Loss in Market Share

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

A Relationship Beyond Broking

Nirmal Bang, one of the leading stock broking companies in India, caters to retail and institutional clients by offering them a range of financial products and services, including equities, derivatives, commodities, currency derivatives, mutual funds, IPOs, insurance, depository services and PMS.

Nirmal Bang is drawn from a diversity of professional backgrounds, and blend of experience, skill and dedication is shared with its clients. Nirmal Bang emphasizes adequate, thorough research local and world-wide developments, balancing these with the astute discovery of intrinsic values, synergies and growth. The aim is simply to help the investors to maximize their returns.

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Strong performance expected in 1QFY23: JCH-IN has grown by 60.4% over the 4QFY20 base.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Expect margins to improve going forward: EBITDA margin contracted by 770bps YoY to 5.7% in 4QFY22 mainly due to commodity cost pressures (raw material costs were up 40.7% YoY).</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Capital employed increased: Capital employed for Cooling Products rose to Rs5.53bn in 4QFY22 from Rs4.39bn in 4QFY21.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Strong performance expected in 1QFY23: JCH-IN has grown by 60.4% over the 4QFY20 base.Expect margins to improve going forward: EBITDA margin contracted by 770bps YoY to 5.7% in 4QFY22 mainly due to commodity cost pressures (raw material costs were up 40.7% YoY).Capital employed increased: Capital employed for Cooling Products rose to Rs5.53bn in 4QFY22 from Rs4.39bn in 4QFY21.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning India - Margin Pressure Offsets Topline Growth

<p>This channel insight focuses on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-media-pvt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOM IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/au-small-finance-bank-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24196:1" rel="noopener">AU Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK IN),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-home-life-solutions-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6172:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Home &amp; Life Solutions India Ltd (JCHAC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nilkamal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5323:1" rel="noopener">Nilkamal Ltd (NILK IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makemytrip-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23580:1" rel="noopener">Makemytrip Ltd (MMYT US)</a>. States, where our channels were based, include- West Bengal, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar.  </p>
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<h3>About India Channel Insight</h3>
</div>
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<p>Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets emerging out of these interactions and have been aiding us to generate interesting trade ideas and have often proven to be reliable sources of qualitative alpha. </p>
</div>

This channel insight focuses on Zomato (ZOM IN), AU Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK IN),Hitachi Home &amp; Life Solutions India Ltd (JCHAC IN), Nilkamal Ltd (NILK IN) and Makemytrip Ltd (MMYT US). States, where our channels were based, include- West Bengal, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar.  

About India Channel Insight


Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets emerging out of these interactions and have been aiding us to generate interesting trade ideas and have often proven to be reliable sources of qualitative alpha. 


India Channel Insight | Zomato, AU Bank, Johnson Hitachi, Nilkamal, Makemytrip

ASA Capital Management

ASA Capital Management is a boutique Research and Investment Advisory firm focusing on primary research in India. ASA provides bespoke research services to Institutional Clients with a focus on due diligence backed with primary research, Field Trips & Channel Checks.

<p>Our objective with this weekly is to highlight notable developments in the India internet and consumer sector focusing on public and private companies. The sub-sectors covered include payment providers, e-commerce retailers,  social media platforms and consumer companies.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25998:1" rel="noopener">Tata Group (1396Z IN)</a> is aiming to become a serious contender in the Indian E-Commerce race with a potential stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> backed BigBasket</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> re-gains its top slot in global smartphones thanks to market share gains in India</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/facebook-inc-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Facebook Inc A (FB US)</a> backed Whatsapp Pay gets its act together in the already competitive Indian Payments Market, expected to roll out soon. </li>
<li>India bans import of AC units, but we see no major market share gains for top players. </li>
</ul>

Our objective with this weekly is to highlight notable developments in the India internet and consumer sector focusing on public and private companies. The sub-sectors covered include payment providers, e-commerce retailers,  social media platforms and consumer companies.


Tata Group (1396Z IN) is aiming to become a serious contender in the Indian E-Commerce race with a potential stake in Alibaba Group (BABA US) backed BigBasket

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) re-gains its top slot in global smartphones thanks to market share gains in India

Facebook Inc A (FB US) backed Whatsapp Pay gets its act together in the already competitive Indian Payments Market, expected to roll out soon. 
India bans import of AC units, but we see no major market share gains for top players. 


India Internet & Consumer Weekly | Bigbasket, Samsung, Whatsapp Pay, India's AC Ban

<p>As the summer sets in, we visit distributor and retailers of air conditioners in our home town Vadodara, Gujarat where temperatures soar really high in summer and air conditioning is becoming a necessity.  Our checks are focused on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9158" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9158:1">Havells India (HAVL IN)</a> and its' consumer brand Llyod. Our takeaways from visits suggest celebrity endorsements unlikely to work, competition intensifying with the entry of Daikin in the mass premium segment, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19739" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19739:1">Ifb Industries (IFBI IN)</a> joins the price war with its ACs, the season is off to a muted start due to prolonged winters.  At current price of INR 776, risk-reward offered is not in favour for Havells investors with a medium-term horizon. Using consensus estimates and average 3 year forward PE of 41x, target price works out to be INR 807. Investors will be better off waiting for an attractive entry point.</p>

As the summer sets in, we visit distributor and retailers of air conditioners in our home town Vadodara, Gujarat where temperatures soar really high in summer and air conditioning is becoming a necessity.  Our checks are focused on Havells India (HAVL IN) and its' consumer brand Llyod. Our takeaways from visits suggest celebrity endorsements unlikely to work, competition intensifying with the entry of Daikin in the mass premium segment, Ifb Industries (IFBI IN) joins the price war with its ACs, the season is off to a muted start due to prolonged winters.  At current price of INR 776, risk-reward offered is not in favour for Havells investors with a medium-term horizon. Using consensus estimates and average 3 year forward PE of 41x, target price works out to be INR 807. Investors will be better off waiting for an attractive entry point.

Havells India | Takeaways from Distributor and Retailer Visits

India

Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning India Limited manufactures air conditioning products. The Company offers commercial air conditioning and refrigeration, absorption and centrifugal chillers, compressors, and environmental testing products. Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning operates worldwide.

Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning India (JCHAC IN)

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Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning India (JCHAC IN)

Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning India - Margin Pressure Offsets Topline Growth

JCH-IN posted revenue of Rs6.9bn in 4QFY22, up 19.8% YoY. The topline was below our estimate by 9.5%, but above consensus estimate by 7.4%.

Nirmal Bang

India Channel Insight | Zomato, AU Bank, Johnson Hitachi, Nilkamal, Makemytrip

This channel insight focuses on ZOM IN, AUBANK IN, JCHAC IN, NILK IN and MMYT US. States, where our channels were based, include- West Bengal,...

Pranav Bhavsar

India Internet & Consumer Weekly | Bigbasket, Samsung, Whatsapp Pay, India's AC Ban

Tata Group joins the e-commerce race eyeing a stake on BABA backed Bigbasket, India helps Samsung regain its global spot, WhatsApp Pay expected to...

Pranav Bhavsar

Havells India | Takeaways from Distributor and Retailer Visits

As the summer sets in, we visit distributor and retailers of air conditioners in our home town Vadodara, Gujarat where temperatures soar really...

Pranav Bhavsar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Johnson Controls-Hitachi (JCHAC IN) | Irreparable Loss in Market Share

Our channel checks across dealers indicate an irreparable loss in market share for Hitachi in the Indian Air Conditioner (AC) market.

Pranav Bhavsar

Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning India - Margin Pressure Offsets Topline Growth

JCH-IN posted revenue of Rs6.9bn in 4QFY22, up 19.8% YoY. The topline was below our estimate by 9.5%, but above consensus estimate by 7.4%.

Nirmal Bang

India Channel Insight | Zomato, AU Bank, Johnson Hitachi, Nilkamal, Makemytrip

This channel insight focuses on ZOM IN, AUBANK IN, JCHAC IN, NILK IN and MMYT US. States, where our channels were based, include- West Bengal,...

Pranav Bhavsar

India Internet & Consumer Weekly | Bigbasket, Samsung, Whatsapp Pay, India's AC Ban

Tata Group joins the e-commerce race eyeing a stake on BABA backed Bigbasket, India helps Samsung regain its global spot, WhatsApp Pay expected to...

Pranav Bhavsar

Havells India | Takeaways from Distributor and Retailer Visits

As the summer sets in, we visit distributor and retailers of air conditioners in our home town Vadodara, Gujarat where temperatures soar really...

Pranav Bhavsar