Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023.</li>
<li>Since late-July discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation on SPX and QQQ; now it's likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from 7/17/24.</li>
<li>At that point the market will decide which way this consolidation resolves. Throughout this pullback we have said that this consolidation could end up being a significant topping pattern.</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023.
Since late-July discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation on SPX and QQQ; now it's likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from 7/17/24.
At that point the market will decide which way this consolidation resolves. Throughout this pullback we have said that this consolidation could end up being a significant topping pattern.


Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>On August 29, the Centers for Medicare &amp; Medicaid Services unveiled list of 10 drugs, which will come for the first round of price negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act.</li>
<li>From June 2022 to May 2023, more than 8 million people covered by Medicare used these 10 drugs, which accounted for more than $50B spending in Medicare Part D.</li>
<li>The negotiated price will be effective on January 1, 2026. Most of the companies will not be significantly impacted by the drug price negotiation.</li>
</ul>


On August 29, the Centers for Medicare &amp; Medicaid Services unveiled list of 10 drugs, which will come for the first round of price negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act.
From June 2022 to May 2023, more than 8 million people covered by Medicare used these 10 drugs, which accounted for more than $50B spending in Medicare Part D.
The negotiated price will be effective on January 1, 2026. Most of the companies will not be significantly impacted by the drug price negotiation.


10 Drugs To Come Under First Round of Medicare Price Negotiations in US to Curb Inflation

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

<ul>
<li>The three companies we write about this week are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raytheon-technologies-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6453:1" rel="noopener">Raytheon Technologies (RTX US)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beiersdorf-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21588:1" rel="noopener">Beiersdorf AG (BEI GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/king-slide-works-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7130:1" rel="noopener">King Slide Works (2059 TT)</a> 
</li>
<li>For the twenty-six weeks since inception ended 19 May the combined innovation portfolio was +2.5%, versus DJIA-0.9%, S&amp;P500+5.7%, Nasdaq+13.6%, Russell2000 -4.1%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF+6.9%, S&amp;P midcap 400 -2.2%, all in US$ terms</li>
<li>Small-Cap (+4.1%) versus Russell2000 (-4.1%) and midcap (+1.9%) versus S&amp;P400 (-2.2%) continues to outperform benchmarks, but the omission of mega-tech names has hurt large-cap portfolio (+2.6%) versus S&amp;P500 (+5.7%) . </li>
</ul>


The three companies we write about this week are Raytheon Technologies (RTX US)Beiersdorf AG (BEI GR) and King Slide Works (2059 TT) 

For the twenty-six weeks since inception ended 19 May the combined innovation portfolio was +2.5%, versus DJIA-0.9%, S&amp;P500+5.7%, Nasdaq+13.6%, Russell2000 -4.1%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF+6.9%, S&amp;P midcap 400 -2.2%, all in US$ terms
Small-Cap (+4.1%) versus Russell2000 (-4.1%) and midcap (+1.9%) versus S&amp;P400 (-2.2%) continues to outperform benchmarks, but the omission of mega-tech names has hurt large-cap portfolio (+2.6%) versus S&amp;P500 (+5.7%) . 


The Innovations Portfolios - Week Twenty Six

<ul>
<li>The three companies we write about this week are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/international-business-machines-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1064:1" rel="noopener">International Business Machines (IBM US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marvell-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15837:1" rel="noopener">Marvell Technology (MRVL US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jtekt-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12197:1" rel="noopener">JTEKT Corp (6473 JP)</a>   </li>
<li>For the twenty-three weeks since inception ended 28 April the combined innovation portfolio was +3.3%, versus DJIA+1.0%, S&amp;P500+5.1%, Nasdaq+9.7%, Russell2000 -4.4%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF+6.5%, S&amp;P midcap 400 -0.8%, all in US$ terms</li>
<li>The innovation small-cap and midcap portfolios continue to outperform relative benchmarks, However, the willful omission of the mega cap tech names has been a drag on the large cap portfolio. </li>
</ul>


The three companies we write about this week are International Business Machines (IBM US) , Marvell Technology (MRVL US) and JTEKT Corp (6473 JP)   
For the twenty-three weeks since inception ended 28 April the combined innovation portfolio was +3.3%, versus DJIA+1.0%, S&amp;P500+5.1%, Nasdaq+9.7%, Russell2000 -4.4%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF+6.5%, S&amp;P midcap 400 -0.8%, all in US$ terms
The innovation small-cap and midcap portfolios continue to outperform relative benchmarks, However, the willful omission of the mega cap tech names has been a drag on the large cap portfolio. 


The Innovations Portfolios - Week Twenty Three

<ul>
<li>The three companies we write about this week are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-techn-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (A) (300750 CH)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kimberly-clark-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2292:1" rel="noopener">Kimberly Clark (KMB US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackberry-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25472:1" rel="noopener">BlackBerry Ltd (BB CN)</a> </li>
<li>For the twenty-one weeks since inception ended 14 April the combined innovation portfolio was +3.6%, versus DJIA +0.4%, S&amp;P500 +4.3%, Nasdaq +8.8%, Russell2000 -3.7%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF +6.2%, all in US$ terms</li>
<li>For the same period the small cap innovation portfolio was up +5.9%, the mid cap portfolio was up +4.4% and the large cap portfolio was up +3.4%</li>
</ul>


The three companies we write about this week are CATL (A) (300750 CH) , Kimberly Clark (KMB US) and BlackBerry Ltd (BB CN) 
For the twenty-one weeks since inception ended 14 April the combined innovation portfolio was +3.6%, versus DJIA +0.4%, S&amp;P500 +4.3%, Nasdaq +8.8%, Russell2000 -3.7%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF +6.2%, all in US$ terms
For the same period the small cap innovation portfolio was up +5.9%, the mid cap portfolio was up +4.4% and the large cap portfolio was up +3.4%


The Innovations Portfolios - Week Twenty One

United States

Johnson & Johnson manufactures health care products and provides related services for the consumer, pharmaceutical, and medical devices and diagnostics markets. The Company sells products such as skin and hair care products, acetaminophen products, pharmaceuticals, diagnostic equipment, and surgical equipment in countries located around the world.

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Johnson & Johnson (JNJ UN)

Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

Upgrading Staples $XLP, Real Estate $XLRE, Health Care $XLV to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow; Dow $DJI, Equal-Weight S&P 500 $RSP,...

Vermilion Research

10 Drugs To Come Under First Round of Medicare Price Negotiations in US to Curb Inflation

CMS announces first round of price negotiations for 10 drugs under Inflation Reduction Act, affecting millions of Medicare users and $50B in...

Tina Banerjee

The Innovations Portfolios - Week Twenty Six

The small-Cap (+4.1%) and midcap (+1.9%) portfolios continues to outperform respective benchmarks, but the willful omission of mega-tech names has...

Pyari Menon

The Innovations Portfolios - Week Twenty Three

The innovation small-cap +5.6% versus Russell2000 -4.4% and innovation midcap portfolio +4.1% versus S&P 400 midcap -0.8% continue to outperform.

Pyari Menon

The Innovations Portfolios - Week Twenty One

For the twenty-one weeks since inception ended 14 April the innovation small cap portfolio was up 5.9%, mid cap portfolio was up 4.4% and the large...

Pyari Menon

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

Upgrading Staples $XLP, Real Estate $XLRE, Health Care $XLV to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow; Dow $DJI, Equal-Weight S&P 500 $RSP,...

Vermilion Research

10 Drugs To Come Under First Round of Medicare Price Negotiations in US to Curb Inflation

​CMS announces first round of price negotiations for 10 drugs under Inflation Reduction Act, affecting millions of Medicare users and $50B in...

Tina Banerjee

The Innovations Portfolios - Week Twenty Six

The small-Cap (+4.1%) and midcap (+1.9%) portfolios continues to outperform respective benchmarks, but the willful omission of mega-tech names has...

Pyari Menon

The Innovations Portfolios - Week Twenty Three

The innovation small-cap +5.6% versus Russell2000 -4.4% and innovation midcap portfolio +4.1% versus S&P 400 midcap -0.8% continue to outperform.

Pyari Menon

The Innovations Portfolios - Week Twenty One

For the twenty-one weeks since inception ended 14 April the innovation small cap portfolio was up 5.9%, mid cap portfolio was up 4.4% and the large...

Pyari Menon

CMS announces first round of price negotiations for 10 drugs under Inflation Reduction Act, affecting millions of Medicare users and $50B in...