Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Comirnaty had had a significant positive impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pfizer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1131:1" rel="noopener">Pfizer Inc (PFE US)</a>’s revenue in 2021. 2022 will be no different. However, outlook for COVID-19 vaccine is uncertain beyond 2022.</li>
<li>Apart from the existing blockbuster fast-growing drugs, Pfizer has a rich late-stage pipeline. Its alopecia areata drug candidate, ritlecitinib has potential to become a blockbuster drug.  </li>
<li>Pfizer aims to add $25 billion revenue to its 2030 top-line expectations. Thus far, the company has announced two deals toward this ambition, entailing potential revenue addition of $7.5 billion.</li>
</ul>


Comirnaty had had a significant positive impact on Pfizer Inc (PFE US)’s revenue in 2021. 2022 will be no different. However, outlook for COVID-19 vaccine is uncertain beyond 2022.
Apart from the existing blockbuster fast-growing drugs, Pfizer has a rich late-stage pipeline. Its alopecia areata drug candidate, ritlecitinib has potential to become a blockbuster drug.  
Pfizer aims to add $25 billion revenue to its 2030 top-line expectations. Thus far, the company has announced two deals toward this ambition, entailing potential revenue addition of $7.5 billion.


Pfizer Inc (PFE US): What’s Lie Ahead of Comirnaty? Potential Blockbuster Drugs in Pipeline

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shockwave-medical-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28730:1" rel="noopener">Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US)</a>, with its differentiated local delivery of sonic pressure waves for the treatment of calcified plaque, seeks to establish a new standard of care through IVL.  </li>
<li>The company is advancing IVL system for multiple large addressable markets totaling over $8.5B. Shockwave’s revenue has five-year CAGR of 244%, with continued improvement in gross margins.</li>
<li>Ongoing clinical programs to expand geographies and indications should further accelerate growth. Recently, the company obtained marketing approval in China and Japan.</li>
</ul>



Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US), with its differentiated local delivery of sonic pressure waves for the treatment of calcified plaque, seeks to establish a new standard of care through IVL.  
The company is advancing IVL system for multiple large addressable markets totaling over $8.5B. Shockwave’s revenue has five-year CAGR of 244%, with continued improvement in gross margins.
Ongoing clinical programs to expand geographies and indications should further accelerate growth. Recently, the company obtained marketing approval in China and Japan.


Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US): An Emerging High-Quality Cardiovascular Devices Idea

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

Johnson & Johnson / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Despite the global impact of Covid-19, Johnson & Johnson had another strong year in terms of sales and earnings.</li><li>While the company’s vaccine may not have lived up to expectations its pharma business managed to perform well.</li><li>Increased brand marketing expense in the consumer health business was mostly offset by expense leveraging in the pharmaceutical business, resulting in relatively flat selling, marketing, and administrative margins.</li></ul>

Despite the global impact of Covid-19, Johnson & Johnson had another strong year in terms of sales and earnings.While the company’s vaccine may not have lived up to expectations its pharma business managed to perform well.Increased brand marketing expense in the consumer health business was mostly offset by expense leveraging in the pharmaceutical business, resulting in relatively flat selling, marketing, and administrative margins.

Johnson & Johnson: Financial & Price Forecasts

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/legend-biotech-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28963:1" rel="noopener">Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US)</a> received FDA approval for its first product Carvykti in February as a fifth-line treatment of relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma.</li>
<li>Label expansion of Carvykti for earlier line of multiple myeloma treatments should expand addressable market, thereby increasing peak sales opportunity to $5 billion from initial expectation of $1.5 billion.</li>
<li>The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has added Legend to their delisting watchlist last week. The company needs to release required evidence by May 3 to stay listed.</li>
</ul>



Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US) received FDA approval for its first product Carvykti in February as a fifth-line treatment of relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma.
Label expansion of Carvykti for earlier line of multiple myeloma treatments should expand addressable market, thereby increasing peak sales opportunity to $5 billion from initial expectation of $1.5 billion.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has added Legend to their delisting watchlist last week. The company needs to release required evidence by May 3 to stay listed.


Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US): Carvykti Approval Is the Silver Lining Amid Uncertainty of Delisting

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

<ul>
<li>This model seeks companies that are potentially “overearning”, defined as companies with unusually high margins relative to their own history or relative to the industry.</li>
<li>The reasons for the margin increases are sometimes unsustainable or fraudulent. The  critical judgement involves to what extent unsustainable margins are embedded in a company’s forecasts and/or the stock’s valuation. </li>
<li>These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, higher valuations due to recent strong results and good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.</li>
</ul>


This model seeks companies that are potentially “overearning”, defined as companies with unusually high margins relative to their own history or relative to the industry.
The reasons for the margin increases are sometimes unsustainable or fraudulent. The  critical judgement involves to what extent unsustainable margins are embedded in a company’s forecasts and/or the stock’s valuation. 
These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, higher valuations due to recent strong results and good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.


Overearning Short Candidates:  Groupon, Dick's Sporting, Dillards, Johnson & Johnson

United States

Johnson & Johnson manufactures health care products and provides related services for the consumer, pharmaceutical, and medical devices and diagnostics markets.  The Company sells products such as skin and hair care products, acetaminophen products, pharmaceuticals, diagnostic equipment, and surgical equipment in countries located around the world.

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Johnson & Johnson (JNJ US)

Pfizer Inc (PFE US): What’s Lie Ahead of Comirnaty? Potential Blockbuster Drugs in Pipeline

By leveraging on windfall gains from COVID portfolio, Pfizer is developing additional growth spots for future revenue growth. Its pipeline and...

Tina Banerjee

Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US): An Emerging High-Quality Cardiovascular Devices Idea

Shockwave is seeing increasing adoption of its differentiated IVL systems for the treatment of calcified cardiovascular disease. Indication and...

Tina Banerjee

Johnson & Johnson: Financial & Price Forecasts

Despite the global impact of Covid-19, Johnson & Johnson had another strong year in terms of sales and earnings. While the company’s vaccine...

Baptista Research

Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US): Carvykti Approval Is the Silver Lining Amid Uncertainty of Delisting

FDA approval of the company’s first drug Carvykti, with initial peak sales opportunity of $1.5 billion should be considered as a buy opportunity,...

Tina Banerjee

Overearning Short Candidates: Groupon, Dick's Sporting, Dillards, Johnson & Johnson

Margin over-earners are fertile hunting ground for shorts if the reasons for the margin increase are either unsustainable or fraudulent.

Eric Fernandez, CFA

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