Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We expect the maximum permitted 30 changes at a single review to take place at the June rebalance. Most changes are high probability.</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.25% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 10.677bn.</li>
<li>Industrials, Information Technology and Materials sectors are expected to have the most net inclusions, while Health Care and Financials are expected to have the most net deletions.</li>
</ul>


We expect the maximum permitted 30 changes at a single review to take place at the June rebalance. Most changes are high probability.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.25% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 10.677bn.
Industrials, Information Technology and Materials sectors are expected to have the most net inclusions, while Health Care and Financials are expected to have the most net deletions.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 30 Potential Changes as Sector Rotation Continues

<ul>
<li>With a few weeks to the end of the review period, we see 30 potential changes (the maximum allowed at a review) to the index in June.</li>
<li>Most of the changes are high probability ones. We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.48% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.86bn.</li>
<li>The potential inclusions have outperformed the potential deletions over the last couple of months. There could be more to go here as positions are built in the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


With a few weeks to the end of the review period, we see 30 potential changes (the maximum allowed at a review) to the index in June.
Most of the changes are high probability ones. We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.48% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.86bn.
The potential inclusions have outperformed the potential deletions over the last couple of months. There could be more to go here as positions are built in the next few weeks.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Maxing Out the 30 Changes

<ul>
<li>Nearly midway through the review period for the June rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a>, we see 29 potential changes to the index.</li>
<li>There are a lot of high and medium probability changes that could result in a one-way turnover of 4.2% and a one-way trade of CNY 10.17bn at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>The potential inclusions have underperformed the potential deletions by c.15% over the last month and this provides a good entry point into a long short/trade.</li>
</ul>


Nearly midway through the review period for the June rebalance of the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX), we see 29 potential changes to the index.
There are a lot of high and medium probability changes that could result in a one-way turnover of 4.2% and a one-way trade of CNY 10.17bn at the June rebalance.
The potential inclusions have underperformed the potential deletions by c.15% over the last month and this provides a good entry point into a long short/trade.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview (June 2022): Changes Near the Midway Mark

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35371:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (600941 CH)</a> listed on 5 January after raising CNY 56bn in its A-share IPO. The stock could get Fast Entry to the CSI300, SSE50 and SSE180 indices.</li>
<li>Stocks will be deleted from these indices to maintain the number of index constituents. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jonjee-high-tech-industrial-and-commercial-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14622:1" rel="noopener">Jonjee High-Tech</a> could be deleted from the CSI300 and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12908:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining</a> from the SSE50.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35371:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (600941 CH)</a> trades at a 41.7% premium to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a>, substantially lower than the 89% premium for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-telecom-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34045:1" rel="noopener">China Telecom (601728 CH)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-telecom-corp-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1015:1" rel="noopener">China Telecom (H) (728 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>



China Mobile (600941 CH) listed on 5 January after raising CNY 56bn in its A-share IPO. The stock could get Fast Entry to the CSI300, SSE50 and SSE180 indices.
Stocks will be deleted from these indices to maintain the number of index constituents. Jonjee High-Tech could be deleted from the CSI300 and Shandong Gold Mining from the SSE50.

China Mobile (600941 CH) trades at a 41.7% premium to China Mobile (941 HK), substantially lower than the 89% premium for China Telecom (601728 CH)/China Telecom (H) (728 HK). 


China Mobile (600941 CH): Potential Index Fast Entry

Post market close on Friday, the China Securities Index Company announced the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> that will be effective after the close of trading on 11 December.
There are 26 inclusions and exclusions in the review with an estimated one-way turnover of 3.87%.
The inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongfang-guoxin-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15513:1" rel="noopener">Unigroup Guoxin (002049 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzhou-dongshan-precision-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8796:1" rel="noopener">Suzhou Dongshan Precision A (002384 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuhan-guide-infrared-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20330:1" rel="noopener">Wuhan Guide Infrared Co,Ltd. (002414 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jpmf-guangdong-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19050:1" rel="noopener">Jpmf Guangdong Co Ltd A (002600 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yunnan-chuangxin-new-material" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27135:1" rel="noopener">Yunnan Chuangxin New Material (002812 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asymchem-laboratories-tianjin-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28265:1" rel="noopener">Asymchem Laboratories (002821 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafron-biomedical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29575:1" rel="noopener">Jafron Biomedical Co Ltd (300529 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bgi-genomics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25890:1" rel="noopener">Bgi Genomics (300676 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-cssc-holdings-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2464:1" rel="noopener">China Cssc Holdings Ltd A (600150 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-tiantan-biological-products-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5190:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Tiantan Biological Products (600161 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jcet-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8628:1" rel="noopener">JCET Group (600584 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsingtao-brewery-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:846:1" rel="noopener">Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd A (600600 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topchoice-medical-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1102:1" rel="noopener">Topchoice Medical (600763 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-baosight-software-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28228:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Baosight Software Co (600845 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jonjee-high-tech-industrial-and-commercial-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14622:1" rel="noopener">Jonjee High-Tech Ind.&amp; Com. (600872 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongtai-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29935:1" rel="noopener">Zhongtai Securities Co Ltd (600918 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boc-international-china-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29972:1" rel="noopener">Boc International China Co-A (601696 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-energy-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14450:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Energy A (601872 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanjing-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27192:1" rel="noopener">Nanjing Securities Co Ltd (601990 CH)</a>, Gan&amp;Lee Pharma (603087 CH), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gongniu-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30060:1" rel="noopener">Gongniu Group Co Ltd (603195 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-wantai-biological-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30129:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Wantai Biological-A (603392 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/montage-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28236:1" rel="noopener">Montage Technology Co Ltd (688008 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-signal-com-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28237:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Signal &amp; Com-A (688009 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-fabrication-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30308:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro-Fabrication-A (688012 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-transsion-holding-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30323:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Transsion Holding-A (688036 CH).</a>
The deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hebei-iron-steel-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11538:1" rel="noopener">Hebei Iron &amp; Steel Co Ltd A (000709 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-tianqi-lithium-industries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5698:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Tianqi Lithium Industries, Inc (002466 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-idc-fluid-control-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18695:1" rel="noopener">STO Express (002468 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avic-helicopter-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14380:1" rel="noopener">Avic Helicopter Co Ltd A (600038 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tbea-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20303:1" rel="noopener">Tbea Co Ltd A (600089 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-construction-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17136:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Construction Group Co, Ltd. (600170 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yanzhou-coal-mining-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24592:1" rel="noopener">Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-nanshan-aluminum-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3920:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Nanshan Aluminum A (600219 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hainan-airlines-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24023:1" rel="noopener">Hainan Airlines Co (600221 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-avionics-systems-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11393:1" rel="noopener">China Avionics Systems Co., Ltd. (600372 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hla-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2586:1" rel="noopener">HLA CORP., Ltd. (600398 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fangda-carbon-new-material-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14878:1" rel="noopener">Fangda Carbon New Material Co, Ltd. (600516 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/offshore-oil-engineering-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4968:1" rel="noopener">Offshore Oil Engineering A (600583 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-chuantou-energy-stock-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2557:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Chuantou Energy Stock (600674 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tonghua-dongbao-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10358:1" rel="noopener">Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical (600867 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-xi-an-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29936:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Xi'an Co Ltd (600928 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-energy-technology-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29941:1" rel="noopener">Cnooc Energy Technology &amp; -A (600968 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-film-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29943:1" rel="noopener">China Film Co Ltd (600977 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ningbo-port-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9969:1" rel="noopener">Ningbo Port (601018 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baiyin-nonferrous-group-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29955:1" rel="noopener">Baiyin Nonferrous Group Co-A (601212 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qingdao-port-international-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29958:1" rel="noopener">Qingdao Port International Co (601298 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/red-star-macalline-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26732:1" rel="noopener">Red Star Macalline Group (601828 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-coal-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24607:1" rel="noopener">China Coal Energy (601898 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bbmg-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22769:1" rel="noopener">BBMG Corporation (601992 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-guiyang-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27479:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Guiyang Co Ltd (601997 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoshine-silicon-industry-c-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26646:1" rel="noopener">Hoshine Silicon Industry C-A (603260 CH)</a>.
Only 3 of the inclusions have over 1 day of ADV to buy, while there are a lot more deletions that have over 1 day of ADV to sell.
The index universe has also been expanded to include STAR Board stocks that have been listed for over 1 year. The change was implemented at this review (with no advance notice) and will see the inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/montage-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28236:1" rel="noopener">Montage Technology Co Ltd (688008 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-signal-com-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28237:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Signal &amp; Com-A (688009 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-fabrication-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30308:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro-Fabrication-A (688012 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-transsion-holding-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30323:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Transsion Holding-A (688036 CH)</a> into the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a>.

Post market close on Friday, the China Securities Index Company announced the changes to the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) that will be effective after the close of trading on 11 December.
There are 26 inclusions and exclusions in the review with an estimated one-way turnover of 3.87%.
The inclusions are Unigroup Guoxin (002049 CH), Suzhou Dongshan Precision A (002384 CH), Wuhan Guide Infrared Co,Ltd. (002414 CH), Jpmf Guangdong Co Ltd A (002600 CH), Yunnan Chuangxin New Material (002812 CH), Asymchem Laboratories (002821 CH), Jafron Biomedical Co Ltd (300529 CH), Bgi Genomics (300676 CH), China Cssc Holdings Ltd A (600150 CH), Beijing Tiantan Biological Products (600161 CH), JCET Group (600584 CH), Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd A (600600 CH), Topchoice Medical (600763 CH), Shanghai Baosight Software Co (600845 CH), Jonjee High-Tech Ind.&amp; Com. (600872 CH), Zhongtai Securities Co Ltd (600918 CH), Boc International China Co-A (601696 CH), China Merchants Energy A (601872 CH), Nanjing Securities Co Ltd (601990 CH), Gan&amp;Lee Pharma (603087 CH), Gongniu Group Co Ltd (603195 CH), Beijing Wantai Biological-A (603392 CH), Montage Technology Co Ltd (688008 CH), China Railway Signal &amp; Com-A (688009 CH), Advanced Micro-Fabrication-A (688012 CH) and Shenzhen Transsion Holding-A (688036 CH).
The deletions are Hebei Iron &amp; Steel Co Ltd A (000709 CH), Sichuan Tianqi Lithium Industries, Inc (002466 CH), STO Express (002468 CH), Avic Helicopter Co Ltd A (600038 CH), Tbea Co Ltd A (600089 CH), Shanghai Construction Group Co, Ltd. (600170 CH), Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188 CH), Shandong Nanshan Aluminum A (600219 CH), Hainan Airlines Co (600221 CH), China Avionics Systems Co., Ltd. (600372 CH), HLA CORP., Ltd. (600398 CH), Fangda Carbon New Material Co, Ltd. (600516 CH), Offshore Oil Engineering A (600583 CH), Sichuan Chuantou Energy Stock (600674 CH), Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical (600867 CH), Bank of Xi'an Co Ltd (600928 CH), Cnooc Energy Technology &amp; -A (600968 CH), China Film Co Ltd (600977 CH), Ningbo Port (601018 CH), Baiyin Nonferrous Group Co-A (601212 CH), Qingdao Port International Co (601298 CH), Red Star Macalline Group (601828 CH), China Coal Energy (601898 CH), BBMG Corporation (601992 CH), Bank of Guiyang Co Ltd (601997 CH) and Hoshine Silicon Industry C-A (603260 CH).
Only 3 of the inclusions have over 1 day of ADV to buy, while there are a lot more deletions that have over 1 day of ADV to sell.
The index universe has also been expanded to include STAR Board stocks that have been listed for over 1 year. The change was implemented at this review (with no advance notice) and will see the inclusion of Montage Technology Co Ltd (688008 CH), China Railway Signal &amp; Com-A (688009 CH), Advanced Micro-Fabrication-A (688012 CH) and Shenzhen Transsion Holding-A (688036 CH) into the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX). 

STAR Board: CSI300 Index Rebalance: Rule Change Sees STAR Board Stocks Included

China

Jonjee High-Tech Industrial and Commercial Holding Co Ltd develops, manufactures ,and markets storage batteries, plastic packaging materials, photoelectric equipment, and virus reagents.  The Company also provides construction engineering services, and develops real estate properties.

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Jonjee High-Tech Ind.& Com. (600872 CH)

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We forecast 30 changes at the June rebalance for the CSI300 Index - most high probability. Industrials, IT and Materials sectors will have net...

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CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Maxing Out the 30 Changes

We estimate 30 changes at the June rebalance with a one-way turnover of 4.48% leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.86bn. The potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview (June 2022): Changes Near the Midway Mark

Nearly midway through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI300 index, we see 29 potential changes resulting in a one-way turnover of...

Brian Freitas

China Mobile (600941 CH): Potential Index Fast Entry

China Mobile listed on the SSE on 5 Jan after raising CNY 56bn. Based on the index methodology, the stock should get Fast Entry to the CSI300,...

Brian Freitas

STAR Board: CSI300 Index Rebalance: Rule Change Sees STAR Board Stocks Included

There are 26 inclusions/exclusions from the CSI300 index with a one way turnover of 3.87%. An expansion of the universe has 4 STAR Board stocks...

Brian Freitas

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