Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

For now we view the recent pullback as a countertrend move that helped correct the extended and overbought conditions we noted over the past two weeks. Overhead resistance on the MSCI EM, EAFE, and ACWI ex-US indexes (all priced in local currency) is something to be aware of, however if the ACWI-US is above $70 our bullish outlook remains appropriate.  In today's report we highlight attractive charts in both defensive and cyclical Sectors. On the semi-defensive side, Sectors covered include Health Care and Services. On the cyclical side, Sectors covered include Energy, Financials, Materials, and Transportation

For now we view the recent pullback as a countertrend move that helped correct the extended and overbought conditions we noted over the past two weeks. Overhead resistance on the MSCI EM, EAFE, and ACWI ex-US indexes (all priced in local currency) is something to be aware of, however if the ACWI-US is above $70 our bullish outlook remains appropriate.  In today's report we highlight attractive charts in both defensive and cyclical Sectors. On the semi-defensive side, Sectors covered include Health Care and Services. On the cyclical side, Sectors covered include Energy, Financials, Materials, and Transportation

Global Equity Strategy: Short-Term Bullish Trends Clash With Longer-Term Resistance

Upside momentum continues to wane for global equities. Price action this week has indeed confirmed lower highs for now in the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes. These lower highs increase the probability for breakdowns and a deeper pullback, but we do not want to get ahead of ourselves. Until we see breakdowns we still view global equities as being in a period of consolidation. We outline important technical levels across markets and highlight actionable set ups within Technology, Health care and Staples.

Upside momentum continues to wane for global equities. Price action this week has indeed confirmed lower highs for now in the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes. These lower highs increase the probability for breakdowns and a deeper pullback, but we do not want to get ahead of ourselves. Until we see breakdowns we still view global equities as being in a period of consolidation. We outline important technical levels across markets and highlight actionable set ups within Technology, Health care and Staples.

Global Equity Strategy: Stay Defensive With Technology, Health Care, Staples

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

China (MSCI China, Shanghai Comp., Shenzhen A Share) continues to offer many attractive setups and is a major focus in today’s EM Strategy report. Additionally, Taiwan (TAIEX) continues to be worthy of an overweight within the EM universe with the RS uptrend intact. We highlight several attractive set ups.

China (MSCI China, Shanghai Comp., Shenzhen A Share) continues to offer many attractive setups and is a major focus in today’s EM Strategy report. Additionally, Taiwan (TAIEX) continues to be worthy of an overweight within the EM universe with the RS uptrend intact. We highlight several attractive set ups.

EM Strategy and Chartbook: Remain Overweight EM Vs. EAFE

We continue to believe global equities (ACWI-US) are likely to test the recent low made on March 23, with an undercut of roughly 10% also in the cards. This expectation is supported by price action during prior major waterfall declines in past recessionary periods. With the global economy likely headed for a recession (or worse) we believe it is important to stay with the Sectors that have been outperforming amid the COVID-19 pandemic as we believe they are likely to continue outperforming. That means we are sticking primarily with Staples, Health Care, and Technology. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.

We continue to believe global equities (ACWI-US) are likely to test the recent low made on March 23, with an undercut of roughly 10% also in the cards. This expectation is supported by price action during prior major waterfall declines in past recessionary periods. With the global economy likely headed for a recession (or worse) we believe it is important to stay with the Sectors that have been outperforming amid the COVID-19 pandemic as we believe they are likely to continue outperforming. That means we are sticking primarily with Staples, Health Care, and Technology. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.

Global Equities (ACWI-US) Likely to Retest the March Low

Broadly speaking, RS for MSCI EM is currently exhibiting some mild deterioration vs. MSCI EAFE following four months of clear outperformance. Nonetheless, the MSCI EM index is bottoming and remains attractive from a price perspective.  In today's report we offer a technical appraisal of major EM markets, and offer a host of technically attractivec bottoms-up stock ideas across the EM universe.

Broadly speaking, RS for MSCI EM is currently exhibiting some mild deterioration vs. MSCI EAFE following four months of clear outperformance. Nonetheless, the MSCI EM index is bottoming and remains attractive from a price perspective.  In today's report we offer a technical appraisal of major EM markets, and offer a host of technically attractivec bottoms-up stock ideas across the EM universe.

EM Equity Strategy: Cyclicals Leading, China Surging

China

Jonjee High-Tech Industrial and Commercial Holding Co Ltd develops, manufactures ,and markets storage batteries, plastic packaging materials, photoelectric equipment, and virus reagents.  The Company also provides construction engineering services, and develops real estate properties.

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Jonjee High-Tech Ind.& Com. (600872 CH)

Global Equity Strategy: Short-Term Bullish Trends Clash With Longer-Term Resistance

For now we view the recent pullback as a countertrend move that helped correct the extended and overbought conditions we noted over the past two...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Stay Defensive With Technology, Health Care, Staples

Upside momentum continues to wane for global equities. Price action this week has indeed confirmed lower highs for now in the MSCI ACWI, ACWI...

Vermilion Research

EM Strategy and Chartbook: Remain Overweight EM Vs. EAFE

China (MSCI China, Shanghai Comp., Shenzhen A Share) continues to offer many attractive setups and is a major focus in today’s EM Strategy report....

Vermilion Research

Global Equities (ACWI-US) Likely to Retest the March Low

We continue to believe global equities (ACWI-US) are likely to test the recent low made on March 23, with an undercut of roughly 10% also in the...

Vermilion Research

EM Equity Strategy: Cyclicals Leading, China Surging

Broadly speaking, RS for MSCI EM is currently exhibiting some mild deterioration vs. MSCI EAFE following four months of clear outperformance....

Vermilion Research

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