Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of February, 14 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$23bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in February was 34%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of February, 14 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$23bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in February was 34%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2023: Newcrest Mining, S.M Entertainment, Kanematsu, Nissin Electric

<ul>
<li>There are 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-century-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16474:1" rel="noopener">New Century Resources (NCZ AU)</a>off-market Offer;<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">AAG Energy Holdings' (2686 HK)</a> 's Scheme; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangnan-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9828:1" rel="noopener">Jiangnan (1366 HK)</a>'s MBO.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pushpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13737:1" rel="noopener">Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boustead-projects-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26785:1" rel="noopener">Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: New Century Resources (NCZ AU)off-market Offer;AAG Energy Holdings' (2686 HK) 's Scheme; and Jiangnan (1366 HK)'s MBO.
Key updates took place for: Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU), Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ), Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP), and Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: New Century Resource; AAG Energy; Jiangnan, Nitro, Pushpay

<ul>
<li>There are 41 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal</li>
<li>Onr new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this past week - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">AAG Energy (2686 HK)</a>'s Scheme.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangnan-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9828:1" rel="noopener">Jiangnan (1366 HK)</a> also suspended pursuant to Hong Kong's Code on Takeovers and Mergers.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/o2micro-international-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36418:1" rel="noopener">O2Micro International (OIIM US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 41 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal
Onr new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this past week - AAG Energy (2686 HK)'s Scheme.  Jiangnan (1366 HK) also suspended pursuant to Hong Kong's Code on Takeovers and Mergers.
Key updates took place for: Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK), Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP), and O2Micro International (OIIM US).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Toshiba, Jingnan, Newcrest, Yashili, Sembcorp, O2Micro, AAG

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We estimate JOYY’s 4Q22 top line/bottom line to miss cons. by (3%)/(12%), as TikTok’s influence in major market expands. </li>
<li>We suggest that a much slower recovery in 1Q23 does not bode well for its full year outlook. Our top line and bottom line are (2%)/(14%) lower than cons.</li>
<li>Maintain SELL and cut TP to US$25.1, implying 12.8X PE in 2023.</li>
</ul>


We estimate JOYY’s 4Q22 top line/bottom line to miss cons. by (3%)/(12%), as TikTok’s influence in major market expands. 
We suggest that a much slower recovery in 1Q23 does not bode well for its full year outlook. Our top line and bottom line are (2%)/(14%) lower than cons.
Maintain SELL and cut TP to US$25.1, implying 12.8X PE in 2023.


[JOYY (YY US, SELL, TP US$25.1) Target Price Change]: Price Correction to Come Amid Global Headwinds

<ul>
<li>There are 41 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Five new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-abu-dhabi-bank-pjsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28945:1" rel="noopener">First Abu Dhabi Bank</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc-f07a1272-e0fc-49e2-8090-1a08715a40a1" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22649:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boustead-projects-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26785:1" rel="noopener">Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ihara-science-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9870:1" rel="noopener">Ihara Science (5999 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iwasaki-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13072:1" rel="noopener">Iwasaki Electric (6924 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/halcyon-agri-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18191:1" rel="noopener">Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 41 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Five new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: Newmont/Newcrest; First Abu Dhabi Bank/Standard Chartered,  Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP); Ihara Science (5999 JP), and Iwasaki Electric (6924 JP).
Key updates took place for: Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), and Halcyon Agri (HACL SP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Newmont/Newcrest, StanChart, Boustead Proj., Ihara, Iwasaki

China

JOYY Inc. operates a global social media platform. The Company offers platform which enables users to interact with each other in real time through online live media by creating, sharing, and enjoying a vast range of entertainment content and activities. JOYY serves customers in China.

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JOYY (YY US)

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2023: Newcrest Mining, S.M Entertainment, Kanematsu, Nissin Electric

For the month of February, 14 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an announced deal size of ~US$23bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: New Century Resource; AAG Energy; Jiangnan, Nitro, Pushpay

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Toshiba, Jingnan, Newcrest, Yashili, Sembcorp, O2Micro, AAG

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

[JOYY (YY US, SELL, TP US$25.1) Target Price Change]: Price Correction to Come Amid Global Headwinds

We estimate JOYY’s 4Q22 top line/bottom line to miss cons. by (3%)/(12%), as TikTok’s influence in major market expands.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Newmont/Newcrest, StanChart, Boustead Proj., Ihara, Iwasaki

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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