Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Weekly HFD for large US banks are turning positive in several areas, making the mosaic even stronger than if just as single series were improving</li>
<li>Loan growth for the largest US banks is now positive even if low, but moving from a negative rate of growth, the trajectory is a steady improvement</li>
<li>Loan loss reserves growth is lowering, suggesting bettering LGD and PD while large time deposit growth is down substantially, improving liquidity risk (which can impact credit)</li>
</ul>


Weekly HFD for large US banks are turning positive in several areas, making the mosaic even stronger than if just as single series were improving
Loan growth for the largest US banks is now positive even if low, but moving from a negative rate of growth, the trajectory is a steady improvement
Loan loss reserves growth is lowering, suggesting bettering LGD and PD while large time deposit growth is down substantially, improving liquidity risk (which can impact credit)


US Banks - Strong Weekly Balance Sheet Figures for Loans, Loan Loss Reserves and Time Deposits

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 27/Sep, US crude inventories rose by 3.9m barrels, contrasting expectations of a 1.5m barrel drawdown. Gasoline stockpiles also unexpectedly grew.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose 55 Bcf for the week ending 27/Sep, lower than analyst expectations of a 59 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 5.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Chevron, Shell, Halliburton, and Schlumberger have all experienced target price downgrades, while Exxon Mobil received an upward revision to its target price. Notably, Goldman Sachs downgraded Occidental to Neutral.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 27/Sep, US crude inventories rose by 3.9m barrels, contrasting expectations of a 1.5m barrel drawdown. Gasoline stockpiles also unexpectedly grew.
US natural gas inventories rose 55 Bcf for the week ending 27/Sep, lower than analyst expectations of a 59 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 5.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Chevron, Shell, Halliburton, and Schlumberger have all experienced target price downgrades, while Exxon Mobil received an upward revision to its target price. Notably, Goldman Sachs downgraded Occidental to Neutral.


[ETP 2024/40] WTI Prices Surge as Iran-Israel Tensions Rise; Nat-Gas Rallies on Output Cuts

<ul>
<li>While maybe deflation may not be a concern right now, we believe that high real rates will be a consideration of the Fed</li>
<li>With average lending rates at 8.5% in August and the All Urban CPI Index recording 2.5% inflation in the August, real lending rates are high at 5.97%</li>
<li>When figures were similar, it was July/August 2007 - rarely has there been a time in recent years, where real loan rates have been so high, without Fed reaction</li>
</ul>


While maybe deflation may not be a concern right now, we believe that high real rates will be a consideration of the Fed
With average lending rates at 8.5% in August and the All Urban CPI Index recording 2.5% inflation in the August, real lending rates are high at 5.97%
When figures were similar, it was July/August 2007 - rarely has there been a time in recent years, where real loan rates have been so high, without Fed reaction


Fed Rate Cut - Real Lending Rates at 5.97% Near Where Peaking In August 2007

<ul>
<li>The Fed's Michael Barr has proposed recommendations to adjust Basel III rules, calculations on 11 September, so this is very new</li>
<li>JPM, CITI, BAC, GS, MS, WFC, SST, are G-SIBs in the US in order of 'importance to system' so that JPM is ranked as first and State Street the lowest</li>
<li>Of these banks, only WFC has seen its loans contract over the past two and a half years, which can mean it is marginally better prepared</li>
</ul>


The Fed's Michael Barr has proposed recommendations to adjust Basel III rules, calculations on 11 September, so this is very new
JPM, CITI, BAC, GS, MS, WFC, SST, are G-SIBs in the US in order of 'importance to system' so that JPM is ranked as first and State Street the lowest
Of these banks, only WFC has seen its loans contract over the past two and a half years, which can mean it is marginally better prepared


US Banks and New Capital Rules - GSIBs 9% More Capital, Can Impact Lending, WFC Stands Out Best

<ul>
<li>High frequency data in the US for mortgage loan applications and mortgage loan volume is improving, not suggestive of recession</li>
<li>Total domestic credit growth in the US is accelerating in recent months, and this can continue given the HFD on mortgages</li>
<li>Credit metrics can remain a concern, especially in CRE and card lending, despite the improved delta in mortgage lending and total lending</li>
</ul>


High frequency data in the US for mortgage loan applications and mortgage loan volume is improving, not suggestive of recession
Total domestic credit growth in the US is accelerating in recent months, and this can continue given the HFD on mortgages
Credit metrics can remain a concern, especially in CRE and card lending, despite the improved delta in mortgage lending and total lending


US Banks & Economy - HFD Mortgage Data Shows Weekly Improvements, Credit Growth Improving in US

United States

JPMorgan Chase & Co. provides global financial services and retail banking. The Company provides services such as investment banking, treasury and securities services, asset management, private banking, card member services, commercial banking, and home finance. JP Morgan Chase serves business enterprises, institutions, and individuals.

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JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM US)

US Banks - Strong Weekly Balance Sheet Figures for Loans, Loan Loss Reserves and Time Deposits

The largest US banks by assets are showing HFD that is increasingly positive for loan growth, loan loss reserves growth and large time deposits...

Daniel Tabbush

[ETP 2024/40] WTI Prices Surge as Iran-Israel Tensions Rise; Nat-Gas Rallies on Output Cuts

WTI rose amid heightened supply concerns after Iran's missile attacks on Israel, yet long-term demand worries persist. US nat-gas reached a 16-week...

Mint Finance

Fed Rate Cut - Real Lending Rates at 5.97% Near Where Peaking In August 2007

Real rates are too high in the US and they have been rising sharply. This is likely where the the Fed will need to focus when considering rate...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks and New Capital Rules - GSIBs 9% More Capital, Can Impact Lending, WFC Stands Out Best

New proposals on capital regulations for banks can mean more capital for the largest banks, but there are major differences between the GSIBs.

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks & Economy - HFD Mortgage Data Shows Weekly Improvements, Credit Growth Improving in US

HFD on mortgage loans is improving substantially, not suggestive of a weakening economy, impending recession. Overall loan growth is also...

Daniel Tabbush

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