Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Global government issuance trends are bearish, with widening deficits and increasing net issuance in major economies</li>
<li>Euro area, UK, and US are all facing significant supply pressures, leading to concerns about term premium and yield curve steepening</li>
<li>Japan is expected to see a slowdown in net issuance, but QT policies will still impact the JGB curve, potentially leading to a flattening bias in 2025.</li>
</ul>
<p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>


Global government issuance trends are bearish, with widening deficits and increasing net issuance in major economies
Euro area, UK, and US are all facing significant supply pressures, leading to concerns about term premium and yield curve steepening
Japan is expected to see a slowdown in net issuance, but QT policies will still impact the JGB curve, potentially leading to a flattening bias in 2025.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates - 2025 Global government issuance outlook

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Weak price action to start the year for the Nikkei with little direction from USD/JPY which was grinding higher throughout the week.</li>
<li>Volatility at the start of the week helped push short term historic vol higher with at-the-money implied vol up about 1 point.</li>
<li>Volumes picked up substantially over year-end levels with Puts making up 53.5% of all contracts traded.</li>
</ul>


Weak price action to start the year for the Nikkei with little direction from USD/JPY which was grinding higher throughout the week.
Volatility at the start of the week helped push short term historic vol higher with at-the-money implied vol up about 1 point.
Volumes picked up substantially over year-end levels with Puts making up 53.5% of all contracts traded.


EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly - January 06 - 10

<ul>
<li>Gold is historically a strong January performer, rising 65% of the time. Nifty declines 70% of the time in January with all January’s since 2019 negative.</li>
<li>Wide gap in Kospi vs Nikkei implied vol when viewed in light of their respective price performances over the past 1 and 3 months.</li>
<li>Most markets typically see peak volatility in the first week of the month with prices typically trading heavy in the 2nd half of the month.</li>
</ul>


Gold is historically a strong January performer, rising 65% of the time. Nifty declines 70% of the time in January with all January’s since 2019 negative.
Wide gap in Kospi vs Nikkei implied vol when viewed in light of their respective price performances over the past 1 and 3 months.
Most markets typically see peak volatility in the first week of the month with prices typically trading heavy in the 2nd half of the month.


EQD | Asia January Vol Roadmap:    Outsized Moves, Outsized Volatility

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Since the end of September the Kospi has been diverging from the Nikkie which has rallied as JPY has weakened. Both Kospi and KRW have been moving lower.</li>
<li>Vast majority of option trading is in short dated expiries. The largest volume day of the week saw 99% of trading in expires &lt;= Jan 09</li>
<li>Implied vols were quiet but there was some increased tilt to skew making out-of-the-money Puts slightly more expensive.</li>
</ul>


Since the end of September the Kospi has been diverging from the Nikkie which has rallied as JPY has weakened. Both Kospi and KRW have been moving lower.
Vast majority of option trading is in short dated expiries. The largest volume day of the week saw 99% of trading in expires &lt;= Jan 09
Implied vols were quiet but there was some increased tilt to skew making out-of-the-money Puts slightly more expensive.


EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly - December 23 - 27

<ul>
<li>NKY looks to be playing catch-up with USD/JPY, rising 4.03% on the week and breaking out of recent range after not moving much in the first half of the month.</li>
<li>Implied volatility continues to slide lower with 1M implied vol down 2.5 points on the week.</li>
<li>Call volumes larger than Put volumes for the first time in a while on Fridays 1.80% price surge.</li>
</ul>


NKY looks to be playing catch-up with USD/JPY, rising 4.03% on the week and breaking out of recent range after not moving much in the first half of the month.
Implied volatility continues to slide lower with 1M implied vol down 2.5 points on the week.
Call volumes larger than Put volumes for the first time in a while on Fridays 1.80% price surge.


EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly - December 23 - 27

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

JPY (USDJPY CURNCY)

Global Rates - 2025 Global government issuance outlook

Global Macro Research is predicting government trends and fiscal focus, with euro area and UK budget deficits widening and US Treasury Department...

At Any Rate

EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly - January 06 - 10

Weak price action for Nikkei at start of year, little direction from USD/JPY. Volatility increased, volumes were up with Puts dominating trades....

John Ley

EQD | Asia January Vol Roadmap: Outsized Moves, Outsized Volatility

Historically, gold performs well in January while Nifty tends to decline. Kospi and Nikkei have diverged in price but not implied vol. Most...

John Ley

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly - December 23 - 27

The Kospi has been diverging from the Nikkie which has rallied as JPY has weakened. Both Kospi and KRW have been moving lower.

John Ley

EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly - December 23 - 27

NKY appears to be catching up to USD/JPY, with a 4.03% rise breaking out of recent range. Implied volatility is down and call volumes surpass put...

John Ley

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global Rates - 2025 Global government issuance outlook

Global Macro Research is predicting government trends and fiscal focus, with euro area and UK budget deficits widening and US Treasury Department...

At Any Rate

EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly - January 06 - 10

​Weak price action for Nikkei at start of year, little direction from USD/JPY. Volatility increased, volumes were up with Puts dominating trades....

John Ley

EQD | Asia January Vol Roadmap: Outsized Moves, Outsized Volatility

​Historically, gold performs well in January while Nifty tends to decline. Kospi and Nikkei have diverged in price but not implied vol. Most...

John Ley

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly - December 23 - 27

The Kospi has been diverging from the Nikkie which has rallied as JPY has weakened. Both Kospi and KRW have been moving lower.

John Ley

EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly - December 23 - 27

​NKY appears to be catching up to USD/JPY, with a 4.03% rise breaking out of recent range. Implied volatility is down and call volumes surpass put...

John Ley

Weak price action for Nikkei at start of year, little direction from USD/JPY. Volatility increased, volumes were up with Puts dominating trades....

Historically, gold performs well in January while Nifty tends to decline. Kospi and Nikkei have diverged in price but not implied vol. Most...

NKY appears to be catching up to USD/JPY, with a 4.03% rise breaking out of recent range. Implied volatility is down and call volumes surpass put...