Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We seem to be playing to the Oscar-winning movie title “Everything Everywhere All at Once” in the financial markets.</li><li>Two bank failures in the US, and we go from No Landing to Crash Landing.</li><li>The three days move in 2-year yields was the most significant drop since 1987 and a $ 485 billion loss in banks' market cap.</li></ul>

We seem to be playing to the Oscar-winning movie title “Everything Everywhere All at Once” in the financial markets.Two bank failures in the US, and we go from No Landing to Crash Landing.The three days move in 2-year yields was the most significant drop since 1987 and a $ 485 billion loss in banks' market cap.

Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

<ul>
<li>Heading into yesterday’s Fed meeting, the bond market asked a tough question to Powell: do you mean business?</li>
<li>Powell took a ‘’Bad Cop, Good Cop’’ stance: he answered with a firm ‘’Yes’’ at first, and then tried to soften the message during the press conference.</li>
<li>This spurred a relief rally in risk assets, but it won’t last.<br>Bond markets hate half-hearted stances, and they will keep testing the Fed and risk assets until they get what they want: clarity.</li>
</ul>


Heading into yesterday’s Fed meeting, the bond market asked a tough question to Powell: do you mean business?
Powell took a ‘’Bad Cop, Good Cop’’ stance: he answered with a firm ‘’Yes’’ at first, and then tried to soften the message during the press conference.
This spurred a relief rally in risk assets, but it won’t last. Bond markets hate half-hearted stances, and they will keep testing the Fed and risk assets until they get what they want: clarity.


<ul>
<li>In the ‘80s, independent economist Yardeni coined the term ‘‘bond vigilantes’’ to refer to fixed income investors disciplining authorities for running inflationary fiscal and monetary policies and ultimately restoring order through the bond market.</li>
<li>In 2022, we are witnessing the first preliminary signs of the return of the global macro vigilantes</li>
<li>Amongst others, George Soros is an eminent member of this selected group of macro investors who challenge policymakers across countries and relentlessly chase regime-change narratives once they see a good opportunity</li>
</ul>


In the ‘80s, independent economist Yardeni coined the term ‘‘bond vigilantes’’ to refer to fixed income investors disciplining authorities for running inflationary fiscal and monetary policies and ultimately restoring order through the bond market.
In 2022, we are witnessing the first preliminary signs of the return of the global macro vigilantes
Amongst others, George Soros is an eminent member of this selected group of macro investors who challenge policymakers across countries and relentlessly chase regime-change narratives once they see a good opportunity


Technical Analysis

<ul><li>While much focus has been on EURO/USD cross, Asian currencies haven’t seen that much focus due to range-bound markets.</li><li>That is until two weeks ago when the USD/YEN breakout caught the imagination and became the centre of all things foreign exchange. Bonds &amp; short-term interest rates have been the macro focus of 2022.</li><li>The extent to which US bond yields have risen signals that the bond sell-off is not about to end despite the inverted yield curve. It is likely to cause more pain for EM countries.</li></ul>

While much focus has been on EURO/USD cross, Asian currencies haven’t seen that much focus due to range-bound markets.That is until two weeks ago when the USD/YEN breakout caught the imagination and became the centre of all things foreign exchange. Bonds &amp; short-term interest rates have been the macro focus of 2022.The extent to which US bond yields have risen signals that the bond sell-off is not about to end despite the inverted yield curve. It is likely to cause more pain for EM countries.

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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JPY (USDJPY CURNCY)

Mean Reversion

We seem to be playing to the Oscar-winning movie title “Everything Everywhere All at Once” in the financial markets. Two bank failures in the US,...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Stop Fooling Around, J-Pow

Powell took a ‘’Bad Cop, Good Cop’’ stance: he answered with a firm ‘’Yes’’ at first, and then tried to soften the message during the press...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

The Macro Vigilantes Are Waking Up

‘‘We're in a brave new world of excesses in fiscal and monetary policy, and that's where the bond vigilantes thrive’’ Ed Yardeni In the ‘80s,...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

A powder keg

While much focus has been on EURO/USD cross, Asian currencies haven’t seen that much focus due to range-bound markets. That is until two weeks ago...

Untying The Gordian Knot

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