Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.</li><li>However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Morning from Europe! Remember that we release our “Week at a glance” publication instead of the “Something for your Espresso” every Monday before lunch-time.</li><li>Our aim is to digest the release calendar in an actionable way and assess the risk/reward around the macro themes in the context of the economic release calendar.</li><li>This week, we will focus on the US consumer (Retail Sales), UK inflation (CPI) and the EUR rates (ECB meeting).</li></ul>

Morning from Europe! Remember that we release our “Week at a glance” publication instead of the “Something for your Espresso” every Monday before lunch-time.Our aim is to digest the release calendar in an actionable way and assess the risk/reward around the macro themes in the context of the economic release calendar.This week, we will focus on the US consumer (Retail Sales), UK inflation (CPI) and the EUR rates (ECB meeting).

The Week At A Glance: Another inflation shocker in the UK paired with a rebound in US retail sales?

<ul><li>The inflation report provides a surprisingly soft set of data, aligning perfectly with the FOMC’s hopes, but not with their predictions.</li><li>Back in June, the FOMC projected only one rate cut while hiking the inflation forecast to levels that now seem feasible to undershoot.</li><li>This report, as soft as it gets, shows transportation services down by 0.5% for the month, and shelter prices have only increased by 0.17% MoM.</li></ul>

The inflation report provides a surprisingly soft set of data, aligning perfectly with the FOMC’s hopes, but not with their predictions.Back in June, the FOMC projected only one rate cut while hiking the inflation forecast to levels that now seem feasible to undershoot.This report, as soft as it gets, shows transportation services down by 0.5% for the month, and shelter prices have only increased by 0.17% MoM.

CPI Review: Gung Ho summer! Risk-off fall?

<ul><li>While we are waiting for Godot and US inflation, we have examined the liquidity outlook for the remainder of the year.</li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">The important part of the analysis is to understand why liquidity is moving, not just if it is moving.</span></li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">Depending on the type of liquidity additions/withdrawals, the quality of the liquidity signal improves/worsens as a driver of asset markets. </span></li></ul>

While we are waiting for Godot and US inflation, we have examined the liquidity outlook for the remainder of the year.The important part of the analysis is to understand why liquidity is moving, not just if it is moving.Depending on the type of liquidity additions/withdrawals, the quality of the liquidity signal improves/worsens as a driver of asset markets. 

Liquidity watch: Two major waves of liquidity left this year of varying quality

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly EM watch, which typically centers around developments in Asia and Latin America.</li><li>We continue to see signs of Chinese efforts to balance global metals markets by exporting local excesses, while the export-sector driven growth in China limits the probability of major local fiscal stimulus to fuel domestic consumption.</li><li>The softening of the USD side of the equation will likely leave local monetary authorities in a wait-and-see mode despite continued weakness in both CNY and JPY.</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly EM watch, which typically centers around developments in Asia and Latin America.We continue to see signs of Chinese efforts to balance global metals markets by exporting local excesses, while the export-sector driven growth in China limits the probability of major local fiscal stimulus to fuel domestic consumption.The softening of the USD side of the equation will likely leave local monetary authorities in a wait-and-see mode despite continued weakness in both CNY and JPY.

EM Watch – No fiscal stimulus from China as long as export-business is thriving!

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Overall positioning and sentiment indicators are starting to diverge, though. Most indicators show continued support for risk assets in H2.

Steno Research

The Week At A Glance: Another inflation shocker in the UK paired with a rebound in US retail sales?

Morning from Europe! Remember that we release our “Week at a glance” publication instead of the “Something for your Espresso” every Monday before...

Steno Research

CPI Review: Gung Ho summer! Risk-off fall?

The inflation report provides a surprisingly soft set of data, aligning perfectly with the FOMC’s hopes, but not with their predictions. Back in...

Steno Research

Liquidity watch: Two major waves of liquidity left this year of varying quality

While we are waiting for Godot and US inflation, we have examined the liquidity outlook for the remainder of the year. I have had numerous...

Steno Research

EM Watch – No fiscal stimulus from China as long as export-business is thriving!

Welcome to our weekly EM watch, which typically centers around developments in Asia and Latin America. We continue to see signs of Chinese efforts...

Steno Research

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52-week Range

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