Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>What a crazy day (week), starting August off with a somewhat disastrous NFP report.</li><li>Private sector jobs are trending down, government payrolls are trending down, while manufacturing and goods-producing jobs actually improved in July despite the recessionary ISM manufacturing report.</li><li>This is a clue that the manufacturing sector is rebounding, as we have been alluding to, which is something that will likely become relevant for markets in the coming months.</li></ul>

What a crazy day (week), starting August off with a somewhat disastrous NFP report.Private sector jobs are trending down, government payrolls are trending down, while manufacturing and goods-producing jobs actually improved in July despite the recessionary ISM manufacturing report.This is a clue that the manufacturing sector is rebounding, as we have been alluding to, which is something that will likely become relevant for markets in the coming months.

Portfolio Watch – What can we trade in this weak labor environment?

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Historical analysis suggests that previous lows in yen or highs in dollar yen may be difficult to recapture after significant technical damage.</li><li>The yen strength is influenced by wide US minus Japan real policy rate differentials, skewing historical results in a more yen bearish direction.</li><li>Expectations for the upcoming BOJ meeting include a 15 basis point rate hike and a halving of bond purchases, leading to dispersion of views among investors on the timing of rate hikes.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Historical analysis suggests that previous lows in yen or highs in dollar yen may be difficult to recapture after significant technical damage.The yen strength is influenced by wide US minus Japan real policy rate differentials, skewing historical results in a more yen bearish direction.Expectations for the upcoming BOJ meeting include a 15 basis point rate hike and a halving of bond purchases, leading to dispersion of views among investors on the timing of rate hikes.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We are likely approaching the point where the squaring party triggered by USDJPY is starting to impact market pricing and sentiment in nonsensical ways, as deleveraging is ongoing, even if the dust has settled a little.</li><li>Markets are pricing a small “insurance premium” for the September FOMC meeting, leaving more than 25bp in the forward pricing despite a week of mostly hawkish surprises last week.</li><li>Everything this week is about watching USDJPY price action again, as it has the potential to impact all assets.</li></ul>

We are likely approaching the point where the squaring party triggered by USDJPY is starting to impact market pricing and sentiment in nonsensical ways, as deleveraging is ongoing, even if the dust has settled a little.Markets are pricing a small “insurance premium” for the September FOMC meeting, leaving more than 25bp in the forward pricing despite a week of mostly hawkish surprises last week.Everything this week is about watching USDJPY price action again, as it has the potential to impact all assets.

<ul><li>Markets at one point began to anticipate a risk of more than a 25 bps increase in September, and we have already seen early chatter about a rate cut from the Fed next week.</li><li>This is the kind of “loss of composure” we see when position squaring takes precedence over common sense.</li><li>We are likely approaching the point where the squaring party triggered by USDJPY is starting to impact market pricing and sentiment in nonsensical ways, as deleveraging is ongoing, even if the dust has settled a little this afternoon.</li></ul>

Markets at one point began to anticipate a risk of more than a 25 bps increase in September, and we have already seen early chatter about a rate cut from the Fed next week.This is the kind of “loss of composure” we see when position squaring takes precedence over common sense.We are likely approaching the point where the squaring party triggered by USDJPY is starting to impact market pricing and sentiment in nonsensical ways, as deleveraging is ongoing, even if the dust has settled a little this afternoon.

Central Bank Watch – We are approaching the point where the market is losing its composure

<ul>
<li>Welcome to our weekly EM editorial, where we touch upon the most tradeable topics in liquid EM markets and how they interact with main themes in G10 markets.</li>
<li>The overwhelming story centers around the position squaring party that has been triggered by the reversal of the carry trade in USDJPY.</li>
<li>The real rate spread is no longer trending upwards, leaving the fair value lower than 150 now that the spec long positioning in USD versus JPY is getting squeezed.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to our weekly EM editorial, where we touch upon the most tradeable topics in liquid EM markets and how they interact with main themes in G10 markets.
The overwhelming story centers around the position squaring party that has been triggered by the reversal of the carry trade in USDJPY.
The real rate spread is no longer trending upwards, leaving the fair value lower than 150 now that the spec long positioning in USD versus JPY is getting squeezed.


EM Watch: Knock-outing the EM darlings, while inflation is returning in EM space

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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JPY (USDJPY CURNCY)

Portfolio Watch – What can we trade in this weak labor environment?

What a crazy day (week), starting August off with a somewhat disastrous NFP report. Private sector jobs are trending down, government payrolls are...

Steno Research

Global FX & Economics: Yen-maggedon

The historical analysis and current market conditions suggest that recovering from the recent yen strength may be difficult, with uncertainties...

At Any Rate

The Week At A Glance: Recession or not?

We are likely approaching the point where the squaring party triggered by USDJPY is starting to impact market pricing and sentiment in nonsensical...

Steno Research

Central Bank Watch – We are approaching the point where the market is losing its composure

Markets at one point began to anticipate a risk of more than a 25 bps increase in September, and we have already seen early chatter about a rate...

Steno Research

EM Watch: Knock-outing the EM darlings, while inflation is returning in EM space

Welcome to our weekly EM editorial, where we touch upon the most tradeable topics in liquid EM markets and how they interact with main themes in...

Steno Research

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