Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>On December 6, 2023, Deputy Gov. Ryozo Himino and other policy board members signalled increasing optimism on price and wage increases.</li><li>Himino said at a press conference following a meeting on Wednesday that exiting the negative rate policy would have relatively little impact on Japan's economy.</li><li>"We will carefully assess the situation and consider the timing and procedure of how to exit" negative rates. </li></ul>

On December 6, 2023, Deputy Gov. Ryozo Himino and other policy board members signalled increasing optimism on price and wage increases.Himino said at a press conference following a meeting on Wednesday that exiting the negative rate policy would have relatively little impact on Japan's economy."We will carefully assess the situation and consider the timing and procedure of how to exit" negative rates. 

Part Two: JGB Yields Spike Cause Yen Mayhem

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>Not quite the night before Christmas and some things are still stirring across markets ahead of the holidays.</li><li>The USD is broadly weaker versus the major currencies as markets position ahead of this morning’s data round. Month-end flows may also be weighing on the USD.</li><li>The EUR has risen through recent peaks to trade at its best level since August. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Not quite the night before Christmas and some things are still stirring across markets ahead of the holidays.The USD is broadly weaker versus the major currencies as markets position ahead of this morning’s data round. Month-end flows may also be weighing on the USD.The EUR has risen through recent peaks to trade at its best level since August. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>This week’s CFTC data reflect a deepening of USD bearish sentiment among investors.</li><li>Aggregate USD short positioning by Non -Commercial (speculative) accounts doubled in the week through Tuesday to reach USD6.3bn.</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) reducing net USD longs slightly but exposure is holding close to recent levels.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

This week’s CFTC data reflect a deepening of USD bearish sentiment among investors.Aggregate USD short positioning by Non -Commercial (speculative) accounts doubled in the week through Tuesday to reach USD6.3bn.Additional data shows Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) reducing net USD longs slightly but exposure is holding close to recent levels.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Sentiment Grows, JPY Shorts Covered

<ul><li>So, the Fed is finished raising interest rates and given their revised outlook for lower inflation and slower growth, Fed Chairman Powell conceded that policymakers were now starting to think about when rate cuts will be appropriate.</li><li>The concession that the timing of rate cuts was now up for discussion was a more dovish development than markets were expecting.</li><li>Up until the blackout for this meeting, senior Fed officials were stressing the risk of policy remaining high for longer to combat inflation and, in that context, some pushback on market pricing for rate cuts would not have surprised yesterday.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

So, the Fed is finished raising interest rates and given their revised outlook for lower inflation and slower growth, Fed Chairman Powell conceded that policymakers were now starting to think about when rate cuts will be appropriate.The concession that the timing of rate cuts was now up for discussion was a more dovish development than markets were expecting.Up until the blackout for this meeting, senior Fed officials were stressing the risk of policy remaining high for longer to combat inflation and, in that context, some pushback on market pricing for rate cuts would not have surprised yesterday.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul>
<li>FX Market Update —The USD is trading lower ahead of the US CPI print at 8.30ET.</li>
<li>The USD rebound through early December may be peaking but soft inflation data will be needed to add to the softer tone that is developing as the DXY shows signs of topping out around the 104.20 area —the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the November drop in the index.</li>
<li>Trading overnight reflects a somewhat positive tone, adding to USD headwinds. Stocks are flattish in Europe but US equity futures are trading in the green.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


FX Market Update —The USD is trading lower ahead of the US CPI print at 8.30ET.
The USD rebound through early December may be peaking but soft inflation data will be needed to add to the softer tone that is developing as the DXY shows signs of topping out around the 104.20 area —the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the November drop in the index.
Trading overnight reflects a somewhat positive tone, adding to USD headwinds. Stocks are flattish in Europe but US equity futures are trading in the green.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Slips Ahead of CPI, CAD Underperforms

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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Part Two: JGB Yields Spike Cause Yen Mayhem

USDJPY fell by 3.85% and closed lower by 2.20%; the z-score fell by more than 2.25 (for 60 days). It was the most significant decline in the z...

Untying The Gordian Knot

FX Daily - USD Slides Ahead of Data

The USD is broadly weaker versus the major currencies as markets position ahead of this morning’s data round. Month-end flows may also be weighing...

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Sentiment Grows, JPY Shorts Covered

Aggregate USD short positioning by Non -Commercial (speculative) accounts doubled in the week through Tuesday to reach USD6.3bn.

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Slump Extends After FOMC

USD broadly lower in the wake of the Fed decision; more losses look likely. CAD gains on soft USD fall out. Spot loses squeeze CAD shorts.

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Slips Ahead of CPI, CAD Underperforms

The USD rebound through early December may be peaking but soft inflation data will be needed to add to the softer tone that is developing as the...

Scotiabank

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