Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In the ‘80s, independent economist Yardeni coined the term ‘‘bond vigilantes’’ to refer to fixed income investors disciplining authorities for running inflationary fiscal and monetary policies and ultimately restoring order through the bond market.</li>
<li>In 2022, we are witnessing the first preliminary signs of the return of the global macro vigilantes</li>
<li>Amongst others, George Soros is an eminent member of this selected group of macro investors who challenge policymakers across countries and relentlessly chase regime-change narratives once they see a good opportunity</li>
</ul>


In the ‘80s, independent economist Yardeni coined the term ‘‘bond vigilantes’’ to refer to fixed income investors disciplining authorities for running inflationary fiscal and monetary policies and ultimately restoring order through the bond market.
In 2022, we are witnessing the first preliminary signs of the return of the global macro vigilantes
Amongst others, George Soros is an eminent member of this selected group of macro investors who challenge policymakers across countries and relentlessly chase regime-change narratives once they see a good opportunity


Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>While much focus has been on EURO/USD cross, Asian currencies haven’t seen that much focus due to range-bound markets.</li><li>That is until two weeks ago when the USD/YEN breakout caught the imagination and became the centre of all things foreign exchange. Bonds &amp; short-term interest rates have been the macro focus of 2022.</li><li>The extent to which US bond yields have risen signals that the bond sell-off is not about to end despite the inverted yield curve. It is likely to cause more pain for EM countries.</li></ul>

While much focus has been on EURO/USD cross, Asian currencies haven’t seen that much focus due to range-bound markets.That is until two weeks ago when the USD/YEN breakout caught the imagination and became the centre of all things foreign exchange. Bonds &amp; short-term interest rates have been the macro focus of 2022.The extent to which US bond yields have risen signals that the bond sell-off is not about to end despite the inverted yield curve. It is likely to cause more pain for EM countries.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD ended 2023 on a soft note, but a little off the low made on December 28th which was the lowest the DXY traded at since July.</li><li>Overall, the DXY registered a down year in 2023, losing around 4% overall after two years of solid gains.</li><li>The holiday period has been relatively quiet. The JPY and CHF have tended to outperform since the 24th while sterling and the EUR are relative underperformers among the majors—but are effectively little changed since just before the holiday break. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD ended 2023 on a soft note, but a little off the low made on December 28th which was the lowest the DXY traded at since July.Overall, the DXY registered a down year in 2023, losing around 4% overall after two years of solid gains.The holiday period has been relatively quiet. The JPY and CHF have tended to outperform since the 24th while sterling and the EUR are relative underperformers among the majors—but are effectively little changed since just before the holiday break. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>On December 6, 2023, Deputy Gov. Ryozo Himino and other policy board members signalled increasing optimism on price and wage increases.</li><li>Himino said at a press conference following a meeting on Wednesday that exiting the negative rate policy would have relatively little impact on Japan's economy.</li><li>"We will carefully assess the situation and consider the timing and procedure of how to exit" negative rates. </li></ul>

On December 6, 2023, Deputy Gov. Ryozo Himino and other policy board members signalled increasing optimism on price and wage increases.Himino said at a press conference following a meeting on Wednesday that exiting the negative rate policy would have relatively little impact on Japan's economy."We will carefully assess the situation and consider the timing and procedure of how to exit" negative rates. 

Part Two: JGB Yields Spike Cause Yen Mayhem

<ul><li>Not quite the night before Christmas and some things are still stirring across markets ahead of the holidays.</li><li>The USD is broadly weaker versus the major currencies as markets position ahead of this morning’s data round. Month-end flows may also be weighing on the USD.</li><li>The EUR has risen through recent peaks to trade at its best level since August. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Not quite the night before Christmas and some things are still stirring across markets ahead of the holidays.The USD is broadly weaker versus the major currencies as markets position ahead of this morning’s data round. Month-end flows may also be weighing on the USD.The EUR has risen through recent peaks to trade at its best level since August. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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The Macro Vigilantes Are Waking Up

‘‘We're in a brave new world of excesses in fiscal and monetary policy, and that's where the bond vigilantes thrive’’ Ed Yardeni In the ‘80s,...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

A powder keg

While much focus has been on EURO/USD cross, Asian currencies haven’t seen that much focus due to range-bound markets. That is until two weeks ago...

Untying The Gordian Knot

FX Daily - Oversold USD Rebounds

The USD ended 2023 on a soft note, but a little off the low made on December 28th which was the lowest the DXY traded at since July.

Scotiabank

Part Two: JGB Yields Spike Cause Yen Mayhem

USDJPY fell by 3.85% and closed lower by 2.20%; the z-score fell by more than 2.25 (for 60 days). It was the most significant decline in the z...

Untying The Gordian Knot

FX Daily - USD Slides Ahead of Data

The USD is broadly weaker versus the major currencies as markets position ahead of this morning’s data round. Month-end flows may also be weighing...

Scotiabank

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