External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The aggregate USD short position was largely unchanged in the week ended July 8, widening a marginal $0.3bn to $18.6bn.</li><li>The position is sizeable and remains close to the bearish end of the range since 2023, however it is still well shy of the extended levels reached in 2020/2021.</li><li>This week’s adjustments offered a continued divergence in EUR and JPY positioning as speculators added to their large bullish EUR positions while paring back their JPY longs. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate USD short position was largely unchanged in the week ended July 8, widening a marginal $0.3bn to $18.6bn.The position is sizeable and remains close to the bearish end of the range since 2023, however it is still well shy of the extended levels reached in 2020/2021.This week’s adjustments offered a continued divergence in EUR and JPY positioning as speculators added to their large bullish EUR positions while paring back their JPY longs. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - EUR Bulls Push Long To Fresh High

<ul><li>We are bearish USDJPY and maintain our forecast for meaningful weakness (JPY strength) on the basis of fundamentals.</li><li>The outlook for relative central bank policy is bullish for the JPY as we look to continued tightening from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and renewed easing from the Fed.</li><li>The anticipated narrowing in US-Japan rates is a core component of our USDJPY view, and we hold a year end 2025 target of 135 and a year end 2026 target of 125. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are bearish USDJPY and maintain our forecast for meaningful weakness (JPY strength) on the basis of fundamentals.The outlook for relative central bank policy is bullish for the JPY as we look to continued tightening from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and renewed easing from the Fed.The anticipated narrowing in US-Japan rates is a core component of our USDJPY view, and we hold a year end 2025 target of 135 and a year end 2026 target of 125. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - Fundamentals And Technicals Favor USDJPY Weakness

<ul><li>The aggregate USD short position narrowed $1.8bn in the week ended July 1, softening modestly to $18.3bn.</li><li>The bearish position is at the wider end of its multiyear range, but still well shy of the extended levels reached in 2020/2021.</li><li>Individual currency positioning adjustments were modest overall, favoring the USD while the AUD and NZD positions were left unchanged. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate USD short position narrowed $1.8bn in the week ended July 1, softening modestly to $18.3bn.The bearish position is at the wider end of its multiyear range, but still well shy of the extended levels reached in 2020/2021.Individual currency positioning adjustments were modest overall, favoring the USD while the AUD and NZD positions were left unchanged. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Aggregate Bearish USD Position Holds Steady In Holiday Week

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mizuho

Mizuho

Mizuho Bank is a leading global bank with one of the largest customer bases in Japan, and an extensive international network covering financial and business centers around the world. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The dollar/yen pair will move erratically in July as the deadline for tariff negotiations looms, but there is not much momentum for dollar buy-backs, so the pair will probably trade with a heavy topside for a prolonged period</li><li>The postponement of the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs will end on July 9, with trade talks between the US and other nations like Japan set to wrap up before this date</li><li>Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick have made several announcements about the closeness of deals with other countries</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The dollar/yen pair will move erratically in July as the deadline for tariff negotiations looms, but there is not much momentum for dollar buy-backs, so the pair will probably trade with a heavy topside for a prolonged periodThe postponement of the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs will end on July 9, with trade talks between the US and other nations like Japan set to wrap up before this dateTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick have made several announcements about the closeness of deals with other countriesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>USD/JPY once again lacked direction in June</li><li>The currency pair temporarily climbed as a result of safe-haven USD buying in response to the risk event in the Middle East, but the trend quickly subsided with news of a ceasefire</li><li>Amid uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations, neither the BOJ nor the Fed have made their policy stance clear, resulting in limited exchange rate movement</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

USD/JPY once again lacked direction in JuneThe currency pair temporarily climbed as a result of safe-haven USD buying in response to the risk event in the Middle East, but the trend quickly subsided with news of a ceasefireAmid uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations, neither the BOJ nor the Fed have made their policy stance clear, resulting in limited exchange rate movementContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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JPY (USDJPY CURNCY)

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - EUR Bulls Push Long To Fresh High

This week’s adjustments offered a continued divergence in EUR and JPY positioning as speculators added to their large bullish EUR positions while...

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - Fundamentals And Technicals Favor USDJPY Weakness

The anticipated narrowing in US-Japan rates is a core component of our USDJPY view, and we hold a year end 2025 target of 135 and a year end 2026...

Scotiabank

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Aggregate Bearish USD Position Holds Steady In Holiday Week

The bearish position is at the wider end of its multiyear range, but still well shy of the extended levels reached in 2020/2021.

Scotiabank

Mizuho Dealer's Eye (July, 2025)

he postponement of the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs will end on July 9, with trade talks between the US and other nations like Japan...

Mizuho

Forex Medium-Term Outlook(July, 2025)

The currency pair temporarily climbed as a result of safe-haven USD buying in response to the risk event in the Middle East, but the trend quickly...

Mizuho

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