External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The aggregate USD short position widened $1.7bn in the week ended June 24, reaching $20.1bn.</li><li>The bearish position has already reached fresh local wides (lows) and is threatening the wides briefly tested in mid-2023.</li><li>This week’s adjustments were relatively minor, with notable w/w improvements in EUR (long build) and CAD (short reduction) and a minor deterioration in the GBP (long reduction).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate USD short position widened $1.7bn in the week ended June 24, reaching $20.1bn.The bearish position has already reached fresh local wides (lows) and is threatening the wides briefly tested in mid-2023.This week’s adjustments were relatively minor, with notable w/w improvements in EUR (long build) and CAD (short reduction) and a minor deterioration in the GBP (long reduction).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Bet Continues to Build

<ul><li>The aggregate USD position widened $2.6bn in the week ended June 17, reaching $18.5bn and a level that marginally exceeded last year’s wides.</li><li>The June 17 position date incorporated the latest BoJ policy decision and the most recent US CPI report.</li><li>The largest w/w swing was observed for the CAD, with notable improvements in EUR and NZD as well. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate USD position widened $2.6bn in the week ended June 17, reaching $18.5bn and a level that marginally exceeded last year’s wides.The June 17 position date incorporated the latest BoJ policy decision and the most recent US CPI report.The largest w/w swing was observed for the CAD, with notable improvements in EUR and NZD as well. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bearish CAD Position Narrows As Aggregate USD Short Builds

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mizuho

Mizuho

Mizuho Bank is a leading global bank with one of the largest customer bases in Japan, and an extensive international network covering financial and business centers around the world. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>USD/JPY lacked direction in May. There is some improvement in market sentiment amid reports of U.S. tariff agreements with the UK and China, but the situation remains unpredictable as tensions with the EU have intensified.</li><li>Further, even as confusion over tariff negotiations subsides, the U.S. government’s fiscal health has become a point of contention, and persistently high U.S. interest rates have emerged as a cause for concern.</li><li>USD also rises and falls as the markets swing between optimism and pessimism, so any analysis of the fundamentals seems unlikely to prove beneficial. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

USD/JPY lacked direction in May. There is some improvement in market sentiment amid reports of U.S. tariff agreements with the UK and China, but the situation remains unpredictable as tensions with the EU have intensified.Further, even as confusion over tariff negotiations subsides, the U.S. government’s fiscal health has become a point of contention, and persistently high U.S. interest rates have emerged as a cause for concern.USD also rises and falls as the markets swing between optimism and pessimism, so any analysis of the fundamentals seems unlikely to prove beneficial. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Though the dollar/yen pair will be supported by Japanese/US interest-rate differentials in February, it will continue to fluctuate on headlines related to the Trump administration, so caution will be needed</li><li>The Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s Monetary Policy Meeting implemented a +25bp rate hike when it met in January</li><li>The BOJ decided to adjust the scale of monetary easing on the grounds that real interest rates would remain significantly negative and the monetary environment would remain accommodative if the economy and prices remained “on track</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Though the dollar/yen pair will be supported by Japanese/US interest-rate differentials in February, it will continue to fluctuate on headlines related to the Trump administration, so caution will be neededThe Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s Monetary Policy Meeting implemented a +25bp rate hike when it met in JanuaryThe BOJ decided to adjust the scale of monetary easing on the grounds that real interest rates would remain significantly negative and the monetary environment would remain accommodative if the economy and prices remained “on trackContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>We recently released our latest forecast update, in which we adjusted many of our G10 currency forecasts to reflect our increasingly bearish outlook for the broader USD.</li><li>Our USDJPY targets were left unchanged however, with the official forecast remaining at 135 for year-end 2025 and 125 for year-end 2026.</li><li>We see JPY strengthening (USDJPY falling) on the basis of several factors including longer-term valuation factors and anticipated shifts in the outlook for relative central bank policy.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We recently released our latest forecast update, in which we adjusted many of our G10 currency forecasts to reflect our increasingly bearish outlook for the broader USD.Our USDJPY targets were left unchanged however, with the official forecast remaining at 135 for year-end 2025 and 125 for year-end 2026.We see JPY strengthening (USDJPY falling) on the basis of several factors including longer-term valuation factors and anticipated shifts in the outlook for relative central bank policy.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - USDJPY: Targeting 125 by Year End 2026

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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JPY (USDJPY CURNCY)

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Bet Continues to Build

This week’s adjustments were relatively minor, with notable w/w improvements in EUR (long build) and CAD (short reduction) and a minor...

Scotiabank

Bearish CAD Position Narrows As Aggregate USD Short Builds

The aggregate USD position widened $2.6bn in the week ended June 17, reaching $18.5bn and a level that marginally exceeded last year’s wides.

Scotiabank

Forex Medium-Term Outlook(June, 2025)

USD also rises and falls as the markets swing between optimism and pessimism, so any analysis of the fundamentals seems unlikely to prove beneficial.

Mizuho

Mizuho Dealer's Eye (Feb, 2025)

The BOJ decided to adjust the scale of monetary easing on the grounds that real interest rates would remain significantly negative

Mizuho

FX Snapshot - USDJPY: Targeting 125 by Year End 2026

We recently released our latest forecast update, in which we adjusted many of our G10 currency forecasts to reflect our increasingly bearish...

Scotiabank

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