Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Indian USD high-yield bonds in our sample have outperformed on an improving operating environment in India.</li>
<li>Our base case scenario calls for a stabilized rate environment in 2026 which makes fixed rate bonds fully-valued, in our view.</li>
<li>We argue for a reduction in Asian bond exposure, and not a total abandonment.</li>
</ul>


Indian USD high-yield bonds in our sample have outperformed on an improving operating environment in India.
Our base case scenario calls for a stabilized rate environment in 2026 which makes fixed rate bonds fully-valued, in our view.
We argue for a reduction in Asian bond exposure, and not a total abandonment.


Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>On 31-Dec-25, the Indian government notified a three year safeguard duty on flat steel imports, starting at 12% in Year 1 to counter predatory pricing from China and Vietnam.</li>
<li>This structural shift addresses a long-standing grievance of domestic mills, effectively creating a 10% price premium over imports and reversing the margin erosion caused by excess global capacity.</li>
<li>With domestic HRC prices expected to climb 10%, the duty provides a significant EBITDA kicker for Indian Steel Companies, signaling a multi-year recovery phase for the sector.</li>
</ul>


On 31-Dec-25, the Indian government notified a three year safeguard duty on flat steel imports, starting at 12% in Year 1 to counter predatory pricing from China and Vietnam.
This structural shift addresses a long-standing grievance of domestic mills, effectively creating a 10% price premium over imports and reversing the margin erosion caused by excess global capacity.
With domestic HRC prices expected to climb 10%, the duty provides a significant EBITDA kicker for Indian Steel Companies, signaling a multi-year recovery phase for the sector.


Indian Steel: Safeguard Duty Unleashed— A 12% Firewall for the Domestic Bull Run

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

<ul>
<li>Domestic Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) steel prices slumped to five-year lows in October 2025 due to rampant dumping, even as government capex accelerates and post-monsoon demand revives.</li>
<li>The immediate policy response imposing Anti-Dumping Duty (ADD) is critical, providing a necessary margin shield for domestic producers to execute their aggressive Rs. 1 lakh crore+ capacity expansion plans. 
</li>
<li>India positioned as the only major structural demand story globally, the current price weakness offers a tactical entry point into companies focused on high-quality domestic execution and raw material integration. 
</li>
</ul>


Domestic Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) steel prices slumped to five-year lows in October 2025 due to rampant dumping, even as government capex accelerates and post-monsoon demand revives.
The immediate policy response imposing Anti-Dumping Duty (ADD) is critical, providing a necessary margin shield for domestic producers to execute their aggressive Rs. 1 lakh crore+ capacity expansion plans. 

India positioned as the only major structural demand story globally, the current price weakness offers a tactical entry point into companies focused on high-quality domestic execution and raw material integration. 



From Cyclical Low to Structural Boom: The Policy Shield for India's Steel Giants.

<ul>
<li>The government's 300 MT crude steel capacity target by 2030 is now in full swing, anchored by ArcelorMittal's newly-cleared INR1.5 lakh crore greenfield project and aggressive brownfield by other players.</li>
<li>This signals a multi-lakh-crore capex super-cycle, moving from planning to execution. The 14-month fast-track approval for AM/NS in Andhra Pradesh provides a new, de-risked template for mega-projects.</li>
<li>While execution is accelerating, the sector's profitability hinges on two key variables: managing persistent Chinese imports and securing the massive volume of coking coal required to fuel this expansion.</li>
</ul>


The government's 300 MT crude steel capacity target by 2030 is now in full swing, anchored by ArcelorMittal's newly-cleared INR1.5 lakh crore greenfield project and aggressive brownfield by other players.
This signals a multi-lakh-crore capex super-cycle, moving from planning to execution. The 14-month fast-track approval for AM/NS in Andhra Pradesh provides a new, de-risked template for mega-projects.
While execution is accelerating, the sector's profitability hinges on two key variables: managing persistent Chinese imports and securing the massive volume of coking coal required to fuel this expansion.


Thematic Report: Forging a 300 MT Behemoth as India’s Steel Capex Super-Cycle Accelerates

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>China’s steel exports have surged to multi-year highs, flooding global markets and forcing a wave of trade-defense actions across Asia.</li>
<li>Weak domestic demand, squeezed margins, and policy shifts have pushed Chinese mills to lean heavily on exports — prompting Beijing to cap output and link cuts to carbon goals.</li>
<li>Clear winners: Integrated Indian producers and Japan/Korea premium mills, which gain pricing power and margin upside as safeguards and curbs tighten supply.</li>
</ul>


China’s steel exports have surged to multi-year highs, flooding global markets and forcing a wave of trade-defense actions across Asia.
Weak domestic demand, squeezed margins, and policy shifts have pushed Chinese mills to lean heavily on exports — prompting Beijing to cap output and link cuts to carbon goals.
Clear winners: Integrated Indian producers and Japan/Korea premium mills, which gain pricing power and margin upside as safeguards and curbs tighten supply.


China’s Steel Curbs + Asian Safeguards: Pricing Tailwinds for Premium Mills

India

JSW Steel Limited is an Indian multinational steel company. It manufactures and sells a wide range of steel products, including hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized, and color-coated steel, as well as TMT bars, wire rods, and alloy steel products, serving various industries such as automotive, construction, and infrastructure. The company is headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India, and was founded in 1982.

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JSW Steel (JSTL IN)

Asian Bond Monitor: Take Profits

Indian high-yield bonds outperforming due to improving operating environment, fixed rate bonds seen as fully-valued in stable rate scenario,...

Bondcritic

Indian Steel: Safeguard Duty Unleashed— A 12% Firewall for the Domestic Bull Run

Indian government imposes 3-year safeguard duty on flat steel imports to counter predatory pricing, creating price premium for domestic mills and...

Nimish Maheshwari

From Cyclical Low to Structural Boom: The Policy Shield for India's Steel Giants.

Domestic HRC steel prices hit five-year lows in October 2025 due to dumping, but policy response and demand revival offer growth opportunities for...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Thematic Report: Forging a 300 MT Behemoth as India’s Steel Capex Super-Cycle Accelerates

Government's ambitious steel capacity target by 2030 gains momentum with ArcelorMittal's massive greenfield project and industry-wide capex super...

Nimish Maheshwari

China’s Steel Curbs + Asian Safeguards: Pricing Tailwinds for Premium Mills

China's steel exports surge, prompting trade-defense actions; Indian and Japanese/Korean mills benefit from tightening supply.

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asian Bond Monitor: Take Profits

​Indian high-yield bonds outperforming due to improving operating environment, fixed rate bonds seen as fully-valued in stable rate scenario,...

Bondcritic

Indian Steel: Safeguard Duty Unleashed— A 12% Firewall for the Domestic Bull Run

​Indian government imposes 3-year safeguard duty on flat steel imports to counter predatory pricing, creating price premium for domestic mills and...

Nimish Maheshwari

From Cyclical Low to Structural Boom: The Policy Shield for India's Steel Giants.

​Domestic HRC steel prices hit five-year lows in October 2025 due to dumping, but policy response and demand revival offer growth opportunities for...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Thematic Report: Forging a 300 MT Behemoth as India’s Steel Capex Super-Cycle Accelerates

​Government's ambitious steel capacity target by 2030 gains momentum with ArcelorMittal's massive greenfield project and industry-wide capex super...

Nimish Maheshwari

China’s Steel Curbs + Asian Safeguards: Pricing Tailwinds for Premium Mills

​China's steel exports surge, prompting trade-defense actions; Indian and Japanese/Korean mills benefit from tightening supply.

Rahul Jain

Indian high-yield bonds outperforming due to improving operating environment, fixed rate bonds seen as fully-valued in stable rate scenario,...

Indian government imposes 3-year safeguard duty on flat steel imports to counter predatory pricing, creating price premium for domestic mills and...

Domestic HRC steel prices hit five-year lows in October 2025 due to dumping, but policy response and demand revival offer growth opportunities for...

Government's ambitious steel capacity target by 2030 gains momentum with ArcelorMittal's massive greenfield project and industry-wide capex super...

China's steel exports surge, prompting trade-defense actions; Indian and Japanese/Korean mills benefit from tightening supply.