Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...</li>
<li>We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.</li>
<li>Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...
We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.
Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.


MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Bangladesh, India's 2nd largest trading partner in Asia is under a political crisis leading to instability and uncertainty. </li>
<li>Companies impacted by Bangladesh Crisis in India across sectors and across market caps listed below. </li>
<li>There might be short-term impact, but in long run, there would not be much impact as overall exposure is not that much.</li>
</ul>


Bangladesh, India's 2nd largest trading partner in Asia is under a political crisis leading to instability and uncertainty. 
Companies impacted by Bangladesh Crisis in India across sectors and across market caps listed below. 
There might be short-term impact, but in long run, there would not be much impact as overall exposure is not that much.


Bangladesh Chaos: Impact on Indian Companies

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

<ul>
<li>Sheikh Hasina resigned, leading to chaos in Bangladesh and the formation of an interim government in Bangladesh.</li>
<li>Political instability could disrupt India-Bangladesh trade, delay the FTA, and intensify regional strategic concerns, including China's growing influence.</li>
<li>Indian companies will also be impacted by this geopolitical issue, as India exports 35% of its cotton to Bangladesh and imports ready-made garments from the same country.</li>
</ul>


Sheikh Hasina resigned, leading to chaos in Bangladesh and the formation of an interim government in Bangladesh.
Political instability could disrupt India-Bangladesh trade, delay the FTA, and intensify regional strategic concerns, including China's growing influence.
Indian companies will also be impacted by this geopolitical issue, as India exports 35% of its cotton to Bangladesh and imports ready-made garments from the same country.


The Bangladesh Crisis: What Does It Mean for India?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The pizza category has experienced a tumultuous history, facing significant challenges over the past few quarters compared to other mainstream QSR categories such as burgers and chicken</li><li>These challenges stem from several factors: (1) The category's price-sensitive nature means that deals and discounts have driven a decent amount of growth for mainstream players in the past</li><li>(2) Hyper-competition from regional and local players, who can offer better quality at similar prices due to the high gross margins (75%+) of mainstream pizza brands, intensifies the competitive landscape</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The pizza category has experienced a tumultuous history, facing significant challenges over the past few quarters compared to other mainstream QSR categories such as burgers and chickenThese challenges stem from several factors: (1) The category's price-sensitive nature means that deals and discounts have driven a decent amount of growth for mainstream players in the past(2) Hyper-competition from regional and local players, who can offer better quality at similar prices due to the high gross margins (75%+) of mainstream pizza brands, intensifies the competitive landscapeContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Jubilant Foodworks: Slice of success: new offerings galore! Maintain ADD

<ul><li>We expect our consumer coverage to report revenue growth in mid-single-digits (6% yoy), driven by volume growth.</li><li>At an aggregate level, we expect revenue/EBITDA/net income growth of 5.6/6.3/6.7% respectively in 1QFY25.</li><li>Our ground checks suggest that the demand environment for FMCG products has started gradually improving because of (1) improving volume growth trends in rural areas on the back of a favourable base and the reducing impact of inflation</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect our consumer coverage to report revenue growth in mid-single-digits (6% yoy), driven by volume growth.At an aggregate level, we expect revenue/EBITDA/net income growth of 5.6/6.3/6.7% respectively in 1QFY25.Our ground checks suggest that the demand environment for FMCG products has started gradually improving because of (1) improving volume growth trends in rural areas on the back of a favourable base and the reducing impact of inflationContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG, QSR & Alco Bev (Q1FY25 Results Preview): On an improving trajectory

India

Jubilant Foodworks Ltd. owns and operates fast food chains. The Company offers donuts, baked goods, coffee, bagels, muffin, fruit milkshakes, smoothies, tea, sandwiches, pizza, and beverages. Jubilant Foodworks serves its products to customers throughout India.

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Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN)

MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

MSCI $ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Snap-Back Rallies in Japan $Nikkei $TOPIX, U.S. $SPX, Europe $STOXX fits with our view...

Vermilion Research

Bangladesh Chaos: Impact on Indian Companies

Political crisis in Bangladesh is causing instability, impacting India's 2nd largest trading partner in Asia. Companies may see short-term...

Sudarshan Bhandari

The Bangladesh Crisis: What Does It Mean for India?

Sheikh Hasina's resignation in Bangladesh sparks geo-political chaos, uncertainty over FTA Discussion. Some Indian Companies impacted by these...

Nimish Maheshwari

Jubilant Foodworks: Slice of success: new offerings galore! Maintain ADD

The pizza category has experienced a tumultuous history, facing significant challenges over the past few quarters compared to other mainstream QSR...

HDFC Securities

FMCG, QSR & Alco Bev (Q1FY25 Results Preview): On an improving trajectory

We expect our consumer coverage to report revenue growth in mid-single-digits (6% yoy), driven by volume growth. At an aggregate level, we expect...

HDFC Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

MSCI $ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Snap-Back Rallies in Japan $Nikkei $TOPIX, U.S. $SPX, Europe $STOXX fits with our view...

Vermilion Research

Bangladesh Chaos: Impact on Indian Companies

​Political crisis in Bangladesh is causing instability, impacting India's 2nd largest trading partner in Asia. Companies may see short-term...

Sudarshan Bhandari

The Bangladesh Crisis: What Does It Mean for India?

​Sheikh Hasina's resignation in Bangladesh sparks geo-political chaos, uncertainty over FTA Discussion. Some Indian Companies impacted by these...

Nimish Maheshwari

Jubilant Foodworks: Slice of success: new offerings galore! Maintain ADD

The pizza category has experienced a tumultuous history, facing significant challenges over the past few quarters compared to other mainstream QSR...

HDFC Securities

FMCG, QSR & Alco Bev (Q1FY25 Results Preview): On an improving trajectory

We expect our consumer coverage to report revenue growth in mid-single-digits (6% yoy), driven by volume growth. At an aggregate level, we expect...

HDFC Securities

Political crisis in Bangladesh is causing instability, impacting India's 2nd largest trading partner in Asia. Companies may see short-term...

Sheikh Hasina's resignation in Bangladesh sparks geo-political chaos, uncertainty over FTA Discussion. Some Indian Companies impacted by these...