European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>DoorDash has proposed a cash offer of 180p per share for Deliveroo, representing a 22.7% premium. Deliveroo’s Board is supportive, and the offer values the company at 11.5x EV/NTM EBITDA.</li>
<li>Regulatory risk appears low given limited market overlap between DoorDash and Deliveroo, with a 3–6 month estimated closing timeline; shareholder approval and standard antitrust clearances remain the key conditions.</li>
<li>The deal could trigger a competitive bidding war, particularly from Amazon, a 14% shareholder in Deliveroo, potentially raising valuations towards 13–14x EV/NTM EBITDA and extending the timeline into 2026.</li>
</ul>


DoorDash has proposed a cash offer of 180p per share for Deliveroo, representing a 22.7% premium. Deliveroo’s Board is supportive, and the offer values the company at 11.5x EV/NTM EBITDA.
Regulatory risk appears low given limited market overlap between DoorDash and Deliveroo, with a 3–6 month estimated closing timeline; shareholder approval and standard antitrust clearances remain the key conditions.
The deal could trigger a competitive bidding war, particularly from Amazon, a 14% shareholder in Deliveroo, potentially raising valuations towards 13–14x EV/NTM EBITDA and extending the timeline into 2026.


Deliveroo’s Special of the Day: A DoorDash Takeover

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">7&amp;I (3382 JP)</a>'s MBO is off. Itochu has apparently not been able to agree with Ito-san on board composition/representation and management control. That the MBO is off isn't surprising.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yangzijiang-shipbuilding-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:660:1" rel="noopener">Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP)</a> is sucking wind as United States Trade Representative’s (USTR) office proposed a raft of fees and other shipping restrictions on Chinese vessels</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pentamaster-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31099:1" rel="noopener">Pentamaster International (1665 HK)</a>'s Scheme comfortably gets up after a wild week of trading. </li>
</ul>



7&amp;I (3382 JP)'s MBO is off. Itochu has apparently not been able to agree with Ito-san on board composition/representation and management control. That the MBO is off isn't surprising.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP) is sucking wind as United States Trade Representative’s (USTR) office proposed a raft of fees and other shipping restrictions on Chinese vessels

Pentamaster International (1665 HK)'s Scheme comfortably gets up after a wild week of trading. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Pentamaster Int'l, T'Way Holdings

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bundl-technologies-private-limited-swiggy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy (1255298D IN)</a>, a hyperlocal commerce platform, aims to raise up to US$1.4 billion through an IPO at a price range of Rs371-390.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/swiggy-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:163915" rel="noopener">Swiggy IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on food delivery and Instamart's lagging Zomato on key metrics, ongoing losses, and cash burn.</li>
</ul>



Swiggy (1255298D IN), a hyperlocal commerce platform, aims to raise up to US$1.4 billion through an IPO at a price range of Rs371-390.
In Swiggy IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on food delivery and Instamart's lagging Zomato on key metrics, ongoing losses, and cash burn.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bundl-technologies-private-limited-swiggy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy (1255298D IN)</a>, a hyperlocal commerce platform, aims to raise up to US$1.4 billion at a valuation of US$11.3 billion. </li>
<li>Unlike <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a>’s (the key competitor) multi-app approach, Swiggy’s approach is to provide users with an integrated app offering.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on strong customer retention, food delivery hitting break-even, Instamart’s rapid growth and declining losses, and Out-of-Home Consumption’s strong growth and declining losses.</li>
</ul>



Swiggy (1255298D IN), a hyperlocal commerce platform, aims to raise up to US$1.4 billion at a valuation of US$11.3 billion. 
Unlike Zomato (ZOMATO IN)’s (the key competitor) multi-app approach, Swiggy’s approach is to provide users with an integrated app offering.
The bull case rests on strong customer retention, food delivery hitting break-even, Instamart’s rapid growth and declining losses, and Out-of-Home Consumption’s strong growth and declining losses.


Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Instacart is target price of $33.7 per share, which represents a 20% upside from the high end of the IPO price range ($28 per share).</li>
<li>We estimate the company's operating margin to improve from 2.4% in 2022 to 13.2% in 2023 and 14.6% in 2024.</li>
<li>Although overall sales growth rate from 2020 to 2024 is lower for Instacart as compared to Uber and DoorDash, Instacart is having stronger growth in operating margins than its peers. </li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Instacart is target price of $33.7 per share, which represents a 20% upside from the high end of the IPO price range ($28 per share).
We estimate the company's operating margin to improve from 2.4% in 2022 to 13.2% in 2023 and 14.6% in 2024.
Although overall sales growth rate from 2020 to 2024 is lower for Instacart as compared to Uber and DoorDash, Instacart is having stronger growth in operating margins than its peers. 


Netherlands

Just Eat Takeaway.com is a Dutch multinational online food ordering and delivery company that operates a global marketplace connecting consumers with restaurants and retail partners. The company facilitates food, grocery, and retail item deliveries through its apps and websites in multiple countries. It is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, and was founded in 2000.

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Just Eat Takeaway.com (JET LN)

Deliveroo’s Special of the Day: A DoorDash Takeover

DoorDash’s offer for Deliveroo highlights strategic value and improved fundamentals, with manageable regulatory risks and a potential for competing...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Pentamaster Int'l, T'Way Holdings

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Swiggy IPO: The Bear Case

Swiggy aims to raise up to US$1.4 billion. The bear case rests on food delivery and Instamart's lagging Zomato on key metrics, ongoing losses, and...

Arun George

Swiggy IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on strong customer retention, food delivery hitting break-even, Instamart’s rapid growth and declining losses, and Out-of-Home...

Arun George

Instacart IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Instacart is target price of $33.7 per share, which represents a 20% upside from the high end of the IPO price range...

Douglas Kim

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