Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are not fighting the trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring a few potential concerns</li>
<li>Concerns: notably global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 5.5-month RS highs, crude oil prices bottoming, and gasoline prices (UGA) breaking out from a 3.5+ year downtrend</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets, Taiwan, Korea, Spain, Japan, and Canada</li>
</ul>


We are not fighting the trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring a few potential concerns
Concerns: notably global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 5.5-month RS highs, crude oil prices bottoming, and gasoline prices (UGA) breaking out from a 3.5+ year downtrend
Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets, Taiwan, Korea, Spain, Japan, and Canada


Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>PM Sanae Takaichi's administration is steering Japan towards a more assertive role in the Indo-Pacific, backed by a week of high-profile diplomatic and defence announcements</li>
<li>Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi's meeting with US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon this week underscored the durability of the Japan-US alliance</li>
<li>Nvestor appetite for Japanese equities has strengthened on expectations that a decisive electoral mandate will unlock defence spending, infrastructure investment, and corporate reform</li>
</ul>


PM Sanae Takaichi's administration is steering Japan towards a more assertive role in the Indo-Pacific, backed by a week of high-profile diplomatic and defence announcements
Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi's meeting with US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon this week underscored the durability of the Japan-US alliance
Nvestor appetite for Japanese equities has strengthened on expectations that a decisive electoral mandate will unlock defence spending, infrastructure investment, and corporate reform


Japan Strategy Weekly | Blending Soft Charm with Hard Resolve

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has been trending up for 3 weeks (including this week), our model flagged it as 'overbought'. Wall Street/Tokyo brokerages maintain medium-to-long-term bullish trajectories</li>
<li>Index rebalance will be official from October 1st: added Capcom, Kokusai Electric, and JX Advanced Metals, removing Archion, Konica Minolta, and Kanadevia.</li>
<li>The price-weighted index has been tilted further toward semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, tech growth, driving institutional flows into chip suppliers. Higher yields and potential further rate hikes present persistent headwind risk.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has been trending up for 3 weeks (including this week), our model flagged it as 'overbought'. Wall Street/Tokyo brokerages maintain medium-to-long-term bullish trajectories
Index rebalance will be official from October 1st: added Capcom, Kokusai Electric, and JX Advanced Metals, removing Archion, Konica Minolta, and Kanadevia.
The price-weighted index has been tilted further toward semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, tech growth, driving institutional flows into chip suppliers. Higher yields and potential further rate hikes present persistent headwind risk.


Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX): Tactical Outlook Post Index Rebalance (Pullback Forecast)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capcom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1459:1" rel="noopener">Capcom Co Ltd (9697)</a> replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/konica-minolta-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17287:1" rel="noopener">Konica Minolta (4902)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/archion-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47577:1" rel="noopener">Archion (543A)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kanadevia-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14969:1" rel="noopener">Kanadevia (7004)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a>.</li>
<li>With the new methodology, the index committee appears to be focused on adding stocks with high liquidity and restoring sector balance to align the index with the methodology.</li>
<li>With sector imbalance still rife, there could be 3 more changes for the index in March with more inclusions from the Information and Communications sector likely.</li>
</ul>



JX Advanced Metals (5016), Kokusai Electric (6525) and Capcom Co Ltd (9697) replace Konica Minolta (4902), Archion (543A) and Kanadevia (7004) in the Nikkei 225 Index.
With the new methodology, the index committee appears to be focused on adding stocks with high liquidity and restoring sector balance to align the index with the methodology.
With sector imbalance still rife, there could be 3 more changes for the index in March with more inclusions from the Information and Communications sector likely.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Capcom (9697 JP) Gets a Boss-Level Upgrade

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>Precious and energy-transition metals lead as structural scarcity, central-bank demand, and electrification support gold, silver, copper, aluminium, zinc, and rare earths into 2026.</li>
<li>Bulks and hydrocarbons lag with weak China demand, oversupply, and compressed margins across iron ore, nickel, steel, coal, and crude, keeping the segment firmly underweight.</li>
<li>Top Asia exposures include Zijin, Korea Zinc, Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, CMOC, JXAM, SMM, Mitsui, Jiangxi Copper, NALCO, Hongqiao, Hindalco, Shenghe, and CNRE.</li>
</ul>


Precious and energy-transition metals lead as structural scarcity, central-bank demand, and electrification support gold, silver, copper, aluminium, zinc, and rare earths into 2026.
Bulks and hydrocarbons lag with weak China demand, oversupply, and compressed margins across iron ore, nickel, steel, coal, and crude, keeping the segment firmly underweight.
Top Asia exposures include Zijin, Korea Zinc, Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, CMOC, JXAM, SMM, Mitsui, Jiangxi Copper, NALCO, Hongqiao, Hindalco, Shenghe, and CNRE.


Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

Japan

JX Advanced Metals Corporation mines and distributes non ferrous metal products. The Company smelts, refines, and markets non ferrous metals such as copper, gold, silver, and more. JX Advanced Metals also sells semiconductor materials, special steel materials, and other products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives; Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities....

Vermilion Research

Japan Strategy Weekly | Blending Soft Charm with Hard Resolve

Japan under PM Sanae Takaichi is taking a more assertive stance in the Indo-Pacific, with high-profile diplomatic and defence moves. Investor...

Mark Chadwick

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX): Tactical Outlook Post Index Rebalance (Pullback Forecast)

The Nikkei 225 rallying on tech gains, but our model indicates a short-term overbought condition. We expect a 1-2 week pullback, details are...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Capcom (9697 JP) Gets a Boss-Level Upgrade

The Nikkei225 Index rebalances at the close today. Positioning has increased in nearly all adds/deletes since announcement of the changes. JX...

Brian Freitas

Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives; Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities....

Vermilion Research

Japan Strategy Weekly | Blending Soft Charm with Hard Resolve

​Japan under PM Sanae Takaichi is taking a more assertive stance in the Indo-Pacific, with high-profile diplomatic and defence moves. Investor...

Mark Chadwick

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX): Tactical Outlook Post Index Rebalance (Pullback Forecast)

The Nikkei 225 rallying on tech gains, but our model indicates a short-term overbought condition. We expect a 1-2 week pullback, details are...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Capcom (9697 JP) Gets a Boss-Level Upgrade

The Nikkei225 Index rebalances at the close today. Positioning has increased in nearly all adds/deletes since announcement of the changes. JX...

Brian Freitas

Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

​Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...

Rahul Jain

Japan under PM Sanae Takaichi is taking a more assertive stance in the Indo-Pacific, with high-profile diplomatic and defence moves. Investor...

Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...