Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Copper treatment and refining charges have collapsed from ~$80/ton in 2023 to around –$40/ton by mid-2025, meaning smelters are effectively paying to process concentrate.</li>
<li>Smelter Cutbacks: Persistent margin losses have triggered curtailments and shutdowns across major smelters in China, Japan, and Southeast Asia, removing an estimated 1.3–1.5 Mtpa of refined capacity.</li>
<li>With refined supply under strain, low exchange stocks, and surging Asian premiums, the market risks flipping into a structural deficit—setting the stage for further upside in copper prices into 2026.</li>
</ul>


Copper treatment and refining charges have collapsed from ~$80/ton in 2023 to around –$40/ton by mid-2025, meaning smelters are effectively paying to process concentrate.
Smelter Cutbacks: Persistent margin losses have triggered curtailments and shutdowns across major smelters in China, Japan, and Southeast Asia, removing an estimated 1.3–1.5 Mtpa of refined capacity.
With refined supply under strain, low exchange stocks, and surging Asian premiums, the market risks flipping into a structural deficit—setting the stage for further upside in copper prices into 2026.


Copper Market Stress Test: TC/RC Collapse and Its Implications for Miners, Smelters, and Prices

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Copper Bull Case: Electrification and constrained supply support a bullish $10k/t copper outlook, positioning Japan Inc. as a strategic beneficiary of the energy transition.</li>
<li>Japan Inc. Exposure: ~0.95 Mt attributable output (~63–66% demand) drives ~$6bn EBITDA; SMM and JX Advanced Metals are most leveraged, trading houses offer diversified exposure.</li>
<li>Growth Optionality: Nittetsu’s Chile projects add near-term growth (2026–28), while Quechua provides long-dated optionality into the 2030s, enhancing Japan’s copper security.</li>
</ul>


Copper Bull Case: Electrification and constrained supply support a bullish $10k/t copper outlook, positioning Japan Inc. as a strategic beneficiary of the energy transition.
Japan Inc. Exposure: ~0.95 Mt attributable output (~63–66% demand) drives ~$6bn EBITDA; SMM and JX Advanced Metals are most leveraged, trading houses offer diversified exposure.
Growth Optionality: Nittetsu’s Chile projects add near-term growth (2026–28), while Quechua provides long-dated optionality into the 2030s, enhancing Japan’s copper security.


Japan Inc. And the Copper Supercycle: Who Benefits Most?

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Skyworks and Cirrus both beating should help the likes of Nitto Denko and Alps.</li>
<li>SMCI tanking -16% as investor confidence shaken by a swift U-turn from previous bullish guidance.</li>
<li>Mitsubishi Heavy continues to surge with its earnings lifted by strong growth for its gas turbine business.</li>
</ul>


Skyworks and Cirrus both beating should help the likes of Nitto Denko and Alps.
SMCI tanking -16% as investor confidence shaken by a swift U-turn from previous bullish guidance.
Mitsubishi Heavy continues to surge with its earnings lifted by strong growth for its gas turbine business.


Japan Morning Connection: Apple Suppliers Continue Higher but SMCI and AMD Disappoint After-Hours

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Sep 11th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD30,193m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, SoftBank, Advantest, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Lintec, Nintendo, Japan Airport Terminal, Tokyo Electron, Disco, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Sep 11th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD30,193m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, SoftBank, Advantest, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Lintec, Nintendo, Japan Airport Terminal, Tokyo Electron, Disco, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Sep 11th): Kioxia, SoftBank, Advantest, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Lintec

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Sep 4th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD28,745m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, SoftBank, Advantest, Fujikura, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Japan Airport Terminal, Lintec, Mizuho Financial, Tokyo Electron.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Sep 4th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD28,745m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, SoftBank, Advantest, Fujikura, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Japan Airport Terminal, Lintec, Mizuho Financial, Tokyo Electron.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Sep 4th): Kioxia, SoftBank, Advantest, Fujikura, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial

Japan

JX Advanced Metals Corporation mines and distributes non ferrous metal products. The Company smelts, refines, and markets non ferrous metals such as copper, gold, silver, and more. JX Advanced Metals also sells semiconductor materials, special steel materials, and other products.

Price Gauge
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JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)

Copper Market Stress Test: TC/RC Collapse and Its Implications for Miners, Smelters, and Prices

Copper smelters facing losses lead to cutbacks and shutdowns, risking supply shortage and potential price increase in 2026.

Rahul Jain

Japan Inc. And the Copper Supercycle: Who Benefits Most?

Japan Inc. poised to benefit from bullish copper outlook due to electrification and constrained supply, with key players like SMM and JX Advanced...

Rahul Jain

Japan Morning Connection: Apple Suppliers Continue Higher but SMCI and AMD Disappoint After-Hours

An upbeat tone set for JP Apple suppliers. SMCI down after cut sales guidance. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries earnings show strong growth.

Andrew Jackson

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Sep 11th): Kioxia, SoftBank, Advantest, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Lintec

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), SoftBank (9984 JP), Advantest (6857 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Sep 4th): Kioxia, SoftBank, Advantest, Fujikura, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), SoftBank (9984 JP), Advantest (6857 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Copper Market Stress Test: TC/RC Collapse and Its Implications for Miners, Smelters, and Prices

​Copper smelters facing losses lead to cutbacks and shutdowns, risking supply shortage and potential price increase in 2026.

Rahul Jain

Japan Inc. And the Copper Supercycle: Who Benefits Most?

​Japan Inc. poised to benefit from bullish copper outlook due to electrification and constrained supply, with key players like SMM and JX Advanced...

Rahul Jain

Japan Morning Connection: Apple Suppliers Continue Higher but SMCI and AMD Disappoint After-Hours

An upbeat tone set for JP Apple suppliers. SMCI down after cut sales guidance. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries earnings show strong growth.

Andrew Jackson

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Sep 11th): Kioxia, SoftBank, Advantest, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Lintec

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), SoftBank (9984 JP), Advantest (6857 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Sep 4th): Kioxia, SoftBank, Advantest, Fujikura, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), SoftBank (9984 JP), Advantest (6857 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Copper smelters facing losses lead to cutbacks and shutdowns, risking supply shortage and potential price increase in 2026.

Japan Inc. poised to benefit from bullish copper outlook due to electrification and constrained supply, with key players like SMM and JX Advanced...