Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes are still testing (and holding above) critical supports. This includes MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX</li>
<li>Our overall outlook remains neutral, and we continue to see many attractive buying opportunities, especially out of Japan, India, and a new one -- Brazil.</li>
<li>Buy ideas focus on the Consumer Discretionary and Financials Sectors, with the vast majority of stock recommendations from Japan, India, and Brazil</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes are still testing (and holding above) critical supports. This includes MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX
Our overall outlook remains neutral, and we continue to see many attractive buying opportunities, especially out of Japan, India, and a new one -- Brazil.
Buy ideas focus on the Consumer Discretionary and Financials Sectors, with the vast majority of stock recommendations from Japan, India, and Brazil


Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The STOXX Europe 600 Index is a benchmark index with a fixed number of 600 components representing large, mid and small capitalization companies across 17 countries of the European region.</li>
<li>The EURO STOXX Index is a subset of the STOXX Europe 600 Index and is also the parent index for the widely-tracked EURO STOXX 50 Index.</li>
<li>Below is a look at the Potential Adds and Deletes for the STOXX Europe 600 Index and the EURO STOXX Index in the upcoming index review in March 2022.</li>
</ul>


The STOXX Europe 600 Index is a benchmark index with a fixed number of 600 components representing large, mid and small capitalization companies across 17 countries of the European region.
The EURO STOXX Index is a subset of the STOXX Europe 600 Index and is also the parent index for the widely-tracked EURO STOXX 50 Index.
Below is a look at the Potential Adds and Deletes for the STOXX Europe 600 Index and the EURO STOXX Index in the upcoming index review in March 2022.


STOXX Europe Indices: Quiddity Leaderboard for March 2022 Rebalance (Final)

Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

Executive Summary: Looks can be deceiving when considering performance potential in newly issued securities. While the issuance spread may be wider than peers, this is only one-half of the story. We consider the other half as it relates to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ubs-group-ag-e82c0d58-83f2-4e12-bcb6-976202a4e200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27909:1" rel="noopener">UBS (UBSG SW)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jyske-bank-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22404:1" rel="noopener">Jyske Bank's (JYSK DC)</a> recently issued AT1 bonds and we ponder the potential in Oman Arab Bank’s security.

Executive Summary: Looks can be deceiving when considering performance potential in newly issued securities. While the issuance spread may be wider than peers, this is only one-half of the story. We consider the other half as it relates to UBS (UBSG SW) and Jyske Bank's (JYSK DC) recently issued AT1 bonds and we ponder the potential in Oman Arab Bank’s security.  

New Issue Machinations – Looks Can Be Deceiving

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The rotation into value stocks has lifted bank valuations across the board, especially in developed markets</li>
<li>Even if we could see a pause in the near term, we believe that the rotation has further to run</li>
<li>We screen our universe of European banks for attractive valuations and resilient balance sheets, especially on credit quality and capital, post 4Q20 results</li>
<li>We highlight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc-a723bd63-0890-486f-aaa0-3bb9ad2b95ce" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicredit-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21234:1" rel="noopener">UniCredit SpA (UCG IM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caixabank-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21255:1" rel="noopener">CaixaBank SA (CABK SM)</a>; we turn positive on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bpm-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28121:1" rel="noopener">Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM)</a>, where we had previously been concerned about potentially problematic M&amp;A</li>
<li>In Northern Europe, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jyske-bank-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22404:1" rel="noopener">Jyske Bank A/S (JYSK DC)</a> in Denmark screens well amongst the smaller caps, on both valuation and balance sheet strength</li>
<li>Risks to our view include a worse than expected macro-economic recovery with slower growth impacting credit quality, demand for credit and lower for longer interest rates and spreads</li>
</ul>


The rotation into value stocks has lifted bank valuations across the board, especially in developed markets
Even if we could see a pause in the near term, we believe that the rotation has further to run
We screen our universe of European banks for attractive valuations and resilient balance sheets, especially on credit quality and capital, post 4Q20 results
We highlight HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN), UniCredit SpA (UCG IM) and CaixaBank SA (CABK SM); we turn positive on Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM), where we had previously been concerned about potentially problematic M&amp;A
In Northern Europe, Jyske Bank A/S (JYSK DC) in Denmark screens well amongst the smaller caps, on both valuation and balance sheet strength
Risks to our view include a worse than expected macro-economic recovery with slower growth impacting credit quality, demand for credit and lower for longer interest rates and spreads


European Bank Screens 4Q20 – Our Picks in the Rotation to Value

Debt Capital Markets

China Construction Bank  / Debt Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24567:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank's (CCB)</a> prospective new issue Tier 2 bond is likely to price very close to its existing 2024 callable Tier 2 bond. A flat credit curve, favorable Tier 2 supply technicals and the crowding-in of investor demand for almost anything with a coupon could make this a good deal for the issuer. We hope we are wrong.We see fair value for a potential ten-year, non-call five-year, Tier 2 bond from China Construction Bank at the comparable five-year treasury benchmark plus 195 basis points (T+195). CCB’s 2029 maturity Tier 2 bond with first call in 2024 currently trades at approximately T+185.  Downside risk could be limited, but investors may need to look elsewhere for more pure spread or better upside potential.

China Construction Bank's (CCB) prospective new issue Tier 2 bond is likely to price very close to its existing 2024 callable Tier 2 bond. A flat credit curve, favorable Tier 2 supply technicals and the crowding-in of investor demand for almost anything with a coupon could make this a good deal for the issuer. We hope we are wrong.We see fair value for a potential ten-year, non-call five-year, Tier 2 bond from China Construction Bank at the comparable five-year treasury benchmark plus 195 basis points (T+195). CCB’s 2029 maturity Tier 2 bond with first call in 2024 currently trades at approximately T+185.  Downside risk could be limited, but investors may need to look elsewhere for more pure spread or better upside potential. 

China Construction Bank: Prospective 10nc5 Tier 2 Bond Is Likely to Be Good Value for the Issuer

Denmark

Jyske Bank A/S is a Danish banking group that includes mortgage lender Jyske Realkredit and other subsidiaries. The Group offers financial services including banking, insurance, mortgage, asset management, brokerage, and leasing services. Jyske Bank operates throughout Denmark and serves private individuals, corporations, and the public sector.

Jyske Bank A/S (JYSK DC)

Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Europe $STOXX 50, Japan $TOPIX $Nikkei 225, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising $DXY, Global Sovereign Yields Remain Major Headwinds for global...

Vermilion Research

STOXX Europe Indices: Quiddity Leaderboard for March 2022 Rebalance (Final)

A look at the Potential Adds and Deletes for the STOXX Europe 600 Index and the EURO STOXX Index in the upcoming index review in March 2022.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

New Issue Machinations – Looks Can Be Deceiving

Looks can be deceiving in newly issued securities. We look behind the headline numbers to assess AT1 performance potential.

Hank Calenti, CFA

European Bank Screens 4Q20 – Our Picks in the Rotation to Value

The rotation to value benefits European banks, and there is further to go. 4Q20 results show resilient balance sheets; we focus on HSBC, Unicredit,...

Victor Galliano

China Construction Bank: Prospective 10nc5 Tier 2 Bond Is Likely to Be Good Value for the Issuer

China Construction Bank's (CCB) prospective new issue Tier 2 bond is likely to price very close to its existing 2024 callable Tier 2 bond. A flat...

Hank Calenti, CFA