Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In this note, we share our forecast summary for China's new home sales and new starts for 2026. </li>
<li>The 2026 theme, "10 Distinctions", follows "Snake-Shaped Recovery" from 2025 and "Support Not Stimulus" from 2024.</li>
<li>Our main scenario for new home sales is a less negative decline at -2.5% vs -9.2% actual for 2025, taking into account likely data distortions.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we share our forecast summary for China's new home sales and new starts for 2026. 
The 2026 theme, "10 Distinctions", follows "Snake-Shaped Recovery" from 2025 and "Support Not Stimulus" from 2024.
Our main scenario for new home sales is a less negative decline at -2.5% vs -9.2% actual for 2025, taking into account likely data distortions.


14th Annual China Property Outlook - REF Forecast Summary For 2026 | "10 Distinctions"

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We review the 2025 'draw the line' group forecasts for new home sales in China vs what happened, and put it in the context of the past forecasts.</li>
<li>The 'wisdom of crowds' worked well in the end, but the 'path' to year-end was off most of the year.</li>
<li>You can now join this year's <a href="https://ref.kubrosearch.com/drawkits/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'Draw the Line 2026'</a> for new home sales, part of Real Estate Foresight's 14th Annual China Property Outlook.</li>
</ul>


We review the 2025 'draw the line' group forecasts for new home sales in China vs what happened, and put it in the context of the past forecasts.
The 'wisdom of crowds' worked well in the end, but the 'path' to year-end was off most of the year.
You can now join this year's 'Draw the Line 2026' for new home sales, part of Real Estate Foresight's 14th Annual China Property Outlook.


China Property Predictions: In Hindsight On 2025 And "Draw The Line" 2026

<ul>
<li>In this note, we compare the key macro-property metrics for the full year 2025 vs the past several years</li>
<li>In an annual view, several key growth metrics turned less negative, but with a deterioration since September 2025 in the monthly data</li>
<li>January-February macro-property data from NBS is due in the middle of March</li>
</ul>


In this note, we compare the key macro-property metrics for the full year 2025 vs the past several years
In an annual view, several key growth metrics turned less negative, but with a deterioration since September 2025 in the monthly data
January-February macro-property data from NBS is due in the middle of March


China Property: Full Year 2025 In Context - In 12 Charts

Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

<ul>
<li>Warburg Pincus is acquiring a stake in an Indian hotel platform from APG for up to $106 million.</li>
<li>Ares is planning to expand its office space at Gloucester Tower located in Central.</li>
<li>Blackstone has acquired a 50% stake in another Indian hotel for $100 million, highlighting APAC activity.</li>
</ul>


Warburg Pincus is acquiring a stake in an Indian hotel platform from APG for up to $106 million.
Ares is planning to expand its office space at Gloucester Tower located in Central.
Blackstone has acquired a 50% stake in another Indian hotel for $100 million, highlighting APAC activity.


Asia Real Estate Tracker (13-Jan-2026): Warburg Pincus to invest $106M in India hotel platform.

<ul><li>Fosun has sold a 50% stake in the Andaz Xintiandi Hotel located in Shanghai for $5 million.</li><li>Mitsui's Nippon Building Fund has acquired a significant asset valued at $300 million recently.</li><li>In addition to the acquisition, Mitsui has also divested a Tokyo office block as part of its strategy.</li></ul>

Fosun has sold a 50% stake in the Andaz Xintiandi Hotel located in Shanghai for $5 million.Mitsui's Nippon Building Fund has acquired a significant asset valued at $300 million recently.In addition to the acquisition, Mitsui has also divested a Tokyo office block as part of its strategy.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (12-Jan-2026): APAC Real Estate News - People Update 2026-01-12

China

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. is a large-scale integrated investment group primarily engaged in property development, investment, and management, alongside hotel and catering, cultural center, and healthcare operations. Its portfolio includes residential properties, villas, offices, serviced apartments, and urban complexes. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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Kaisa Group (1638 HK)

14th Annual China Property Outlook - REF Forecast Summary For 2026 | "10 Distinctions"

We share our forecast summary for China's new home sales and new starts for 2026. The 2026 theme, "10 Distinctions", follows "Snake-Shaped...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Predictions: In Hindsight On 2025 And "Draw The Line" 2026

We review the 2025 'draw the line' group forecasts for new home sales in China vs what happened, and put it in the context of the past forecasts.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: Full Year 2025 In Context - In 12 Charts

In this short note, we compare key macro-property metrics for the full year 2025 vs the past several years, looking at new home sales, prices, new...

Robert Ciemniak

Asia Real Estate Tracker (13-Jan-2026): Warburg Pincus to invest $106M in India hotel platform.

Warburg Pincus will invest up to $106 million in an Indian hotel platform, while Blackstone acquires a 50% stake in another hotel for $100 million...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker (12-Jan-2026): APAC Real Estate News - People Update 2026-01-12

On January 12, 2026, Fosun sold a 50% stake in Shanghai's Andaz Xintiandi Hotel for $5 million, while Mitsui's Nippon Building Fund acquired a $300...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

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