Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<div class="content-highlight">The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coupang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28425:1" rel="noopener">Coupang (CPNG US)</a> IPO has been one of the most successful IPOs for a company whose operations are mainly in Korea. There are likely to be a lot more Korean based companies (both public and private) that will consider listing their shares in the US market after a hugely successfully Coupang IPO. In this insight, we discuss 14 major Korean companies that may try to list their shares in the US exchanges in the next several years in order to reduce the infamous "Korea discount."</div>14 Korean Companies That May List Their Shares in the US Stock Exchange:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">1) Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>2) Kurly (Private)3) SmartStudy (Private)4) Naver Webtoon (Private) 5) Krafton (Private) 6) LG Energy Solution (Private) 7) 11st (Private) 8) SSG.com (Private) 9) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ncsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5169:1" rel="noopener">NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS)</a>10) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16029:1" rel="noopener">Naver Corp (035420 KS)</a>11) Kakao Entertainment (Private)  12) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>13) Tmon (Private) 14) Non private equity firm that acquires Ebay Korea

The Coupang (CPNG US) IPO has been one of the most successful IPOs for a company whose operations are mainly in Korea. There are likely to be a lot more Korean based companies (both public and private) that will consider listing their shares in the US market after a hugely successfully Coupang IPO. In this insight, we discuss 14 major Korean companies that may try to list their shares in the US exchanges in the next several years in order to reduce the infamous "Korea discount."14 Korean Companies That May List Their Shares in the US Stock Exchange:1) Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)2) Kurly (Private)3) SmartStudy (Private)4) Naver Webtoon (Private) 5) Krafton (Private) 6) LG Energy Solution (Private) 7) 11st (Private) 8) SSG.com (Private) 9) NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS)10) Naver Corp (035420 KS)11) Kakao Entertainment (Private)  12) Kakao Corp (035720 KS)13) Tmon (Private) 14) Non private equity firm that acquires Ebay Korea 

Top 14 Korean Companies That May List in the US Stock Exchanges - Close The "Korea Discount Gap"

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<div>Coupang, one of the largest product e-commerce players in Korea, raised around US$4.2bn in its US listing via a mix of selling primary and secondary shares. </div><div>In our previous note, links to which are below, we have spoke about various aspects of the deal. In this note, talk about the trading dynamics and provide a valuation table at different  share price levels.</div><div>We've covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier insights: </div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-the-positives-fast-growth-sticky-customers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Sticky Customers</a>, </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-the-negatives-horrendous-data-disclosures-including-no-mention-of-ott-launch" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Horrendous Data Disclosures, Including No Mention of OTT Launch</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-fair-bit-of-competition-but-it-s-doing-better-than-most-local-peers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - Fair Bit of Competition but It’s Doing Better than Most Local Peers</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-earnings-forecast-and-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast and Valuation</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-momentum-play-unequal-lock-up-index-inclusion" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO - Momentum Play, Unequal Lock-Up, Index Inclusion</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-quick-note-peers-move-down-range-moves-up-ripe-for-trading" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO - Quick Note - Peers Move Down, Range Moves Up. Ripe for Trading.</a></li>
</ul></div>

Coupang, one of the largest product e-commerce players in Korea, raised around US$4.2bn in its US listing via a mix of selling primary and secondary shares. In our previous note, links to which are below, we have spoke about various aspects of the deal. In this note, talk about the trading dynamics and provide a valuation table at different  share price levels.We've covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier insights: 

Coupang Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Sticky Customers, 
Coupang Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Horrendous Data Disclosures, Including No Mention of OTT Launch
Coupang Pre-IPO - Fair Bit of Competition but It’s Doing Better than Most Local Peers
Coupang Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast and Valuation
Coupang IPO - Momentum Play, Unequal Lock-Up, Index Inclusion
Coupang IPO - Quick Note - Peers Move Down, Range Moves Up. Ripe for Trading.


Coupang IPO Trading - Most Hit near Term Peak on the First Day - Key Trading/Lock-Up Dates

<div>Coupang, one of the largest product e-commerce players in Korea, aims to raise up to US$4.0bn in its US listing via a mix of selling primary and secondary shares. In this note, we’ll talk about the valuation at the revised price range.</div><div>Coupang offers its 14.8m customers a wide range of owned-inventory selection. In addition, on its marketplace it also offers millions of SKUs sourced from over 200,000 merchants. Apart from normal e-commerce operation, it also provides its customers with: grocery offering, Rocket Fresh; logistics food delivery offering, Coupang Eats; and digital financial services, Coupang Pay.</div><div>I've covered various aspects of the deal in my earlier insights: </div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-the-positives-fast-growth-sticky-customers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Sticky Customers</a>, </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-the-negatives-horrendous-data-disclosures-including-no-mention-of-ott-launch" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Horrendous Data Disclosures, Including No Mention of OTT Launch</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-fair-bit-of-competition-but-it-s-doing-better-than-most-local-peers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - Fair Bit of Competition but It’s Doing Better than Most Local Peers</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-earnings-forecast-and-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast and Valuation</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-momentum-play-unequal-lock-up-index-inclusion" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO - Momentum Play, Unequal Lock-Up, Index Inclusion</a></li>
</ul></div>

Coupang, one of the largest product e-commerce players in Korea, aims to raise up to US$4.0bn in its US listing via a mix of selling primary and secondary shares. In this note, we’ll talk about the valuation at the revised price range.Coupang offers its 14.8m customers a wide range of owned-inventory selection. In addition, on its marketplace it also offers millions of SKUs sourced from over 200,000 merchants. Apart from normal e-commerce operation, it also provides its customers with: grocery offering, Rocket Fresh; logistics food delivery offering, Coupang Eats; and digital financial services, Coupang Pay.I've covered various aspects of the deal in my earlier insights: 

Coupang Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Sticky Customers, 
Coupang Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Horrendous Data Disclosures, Including No Mention of OTT Launch
Coupang Pre-IPO - Fair Bit of Competition but It’s Doing Better than Most Local Peers
Coupang Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast and Valuation
Coupang IPO - Momentum Play, Unequal Lock-Up, Index Inclusion


Coupang IPO - Quick Note - Peers Move Down, Range Moves Up. Ripe for Trading.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coupang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28425:1" rel="noopener">Coupang (CPNG US)</a> announced today that it plans to complete its IPO at $32 to $34 per share, from the previous IPO price range of $27 to $30 per share.We continue to believe that there will be a "first day pop" for the Coupang IPO. We believe that the first day pop could be somewhere between the mid-to-high end of our valuation range which his from $35 to $47.3 per share.If the IPO is priced at $33 per share, we believe the first day pop could be as high as $80.4 billion in market cap or $47.3 per share. Despite the first day pop, we find it difficult for Coupang to maintain such frothy valuations ($80 billion or $47.3 per share levels) for an extended period of time so our base case 6-12 months remains $35 per share ($60 billion in market cap).

Coupang (CPNG US) announced today that it plans to complete its IPO at $32 to $34 per share, from the previous IPO price range of $27 to $30 per share.We continue to believe that there will be a "first day pop" for the Coupang IPO. We believe that the first day pop could be somewhere between the mid-to-high end of our valuation range which his from $35 to $47.3 per share.If the IPO is priced at $33 per share, we believe the first day pop could be as high as $80.4 billion in market cap or $47.3 per share. Despite the first day pop, we find it difficult for Coupang to maintain such frothy valuations ($80 billion or $47.3 per share levels) for an extended period of time so our base case 6-12 months remains $35 per share ($60 billion in market cap).

Coupang - Slightly Raises IPO Price Range & The "First Day Pop"

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<a target="_blank"></a>Coupang is by far the leader in one of the most compelling markets for eCommerce globally and one of the most attractive of the Vision Fund portfolio companies. But it is expensive: the $30 max offer price implies a 5x appreciation in value from its last private funding round in 2018 and a FY21 EV/sales multiple of 2.6x almost on par with Amazon which is a global leader in both eCommerce and cloud.  We value Coupang below the range at $26 using a 9-year DCF driven by 17% revenue CAGR and an 8% terminal OP margin.    This report includes our initial forecasts, valuation, a summary of the investment highlights and a list of questions we would ask on the roadshow.<h2>Highlights</h2>Coupang dominates a very attractive eCommerce market.  Korea scores high on two measures of eCommerce predictive success, Internet penetration and population density and Coupang is by-far the leading provider. It helps that global competition has been unable to gain traction whilst traditional retailers are smaller scale relative to other markets.eCommerce demand has accelerated as Covid-19 accelerates augments a secular shift in retail sales to online platforms.  Revenue growth expanded from 71% in Q4 19 to 100% in Q4 20 but expanding growth was a feature through 2019 as well. eCommerce penetration of c. 25% may have nearly doubled in FY20 although some of that demand shift may revert as the impact of Covid-19 fades.The company is flirting with profitability. Operating margins have moved from -30% in FY16 to -4% in FY20 with corresponding improvement in EBITDA (-30% to -3%).  In our model, we assume Coupang breaks even in FY21 although higher share-based compensation and/or higher spending as it puts IPO proceeds to work could extend that.But it is still burning a lot of cash.  Coupang might be close to break-even operationally but it has largely spent the money it received from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>  in 2018. Over the last three years, $2.7bn has gone out the door including c. $800mn in FY20 alone (our measure of operating cash flow).Comparable valuations and relative changes to valuation highlight the premium valuation. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coupang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28425:1" rel="noopener">Coupang (CPNG US)</a>  max offer price values the company similarly to Amazon on FY21 EV/sales (2.7x v 2.8x) but the latter is a global leader and not just in eCommerce but cloud too. Similarly, Coupang’s value appreciation from its last private funding and March 2020 lows has outpaced peer group, sometimes significantly.

Coupang is by far the leader in one of the most compelling markets for eCommerce globally and one of the most attractive of the Vision Fund portfolio companies. But it is expensive: the $30 max offer price implies a 5x appreciation in value from its last private funding round in 2018 and a FY21 EV/sales multiple of 2.6x almost on par with Amazon which is a global leader in both eCommerce and cloud.  We value Coupang below the range at $26 using a 9-year DCF driven by 17% revenue CAGR and an 8% terminal OP margin.    This report includes our initial forecasts, valuation, a summary of the investment highlights and a list of questions we would ask on the roadshow.HighlightsCoupang dominates a very attractive eCommerce market.  Korea scores high on two measures of eCommerce predictive success, Internet penetration and population density and Coupang is by-far the leading provider. It helps that global competition has been unable to gain traction whilst traditional retailers are smaller scale relative to other markets.eCommerce demand has accelerated as Covid-19 accelerates augments a secular shift in retail sales to online platforms.  Revenue growth expanded from 71% in Q4 19 to 100% in Q4 20 but expanding growth was a feature through 2019 as well. eCommerce penetration of c. 25% may have nearly doubled in FY20 although some of that demand shift may revert as the impact of Covid-19 fades.The company is flirting with profitability. Operating margins have moved from -30% in FY16 to -4% in FY20 with corresponding improvement in EBITDA (-30% to -3%).  In our model, we assume Coupang breaks even in FY21 although higher share-based compensation and/or higher spending as it puts IPO proceeds to work could extend that.But it is still burning a lot of cash.  Coupang might be close to break-even operationally but it has largely spent the money it received from Softbank Group (9984 JP)  in 2018. Over the last three years, $2.7bn has gone out the door including c. $800mn in FY20 alone (our measure of operating cash flow).Comparable valuations and relative changes to valuation highlight the premium valuation. Coupang (CPNG US)  max offer price values the company similarly to Amazon on FY21 EV/sales (2.7x v 2.8x) but the latter is a global leader and not just in eCommerce but cloud too. Similarly, Coupang’s value appreciation from its last private funding and March 2020 lows has outpaced peer group, sometimes significantly.

Coupang IPO and Softbank Group - A Vision Fund Jewel Emerges but It Is Pricey

South Korea

Kakao Corp. provides Internet portal services such as news, free e-mail, and leisure information.  The Company also offers cross-platform mobile messaging application that allows users to exchange messages.

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Kakao Corp (035720 KS)

Top 14 Korean Companies That May List in the US Stock Exchanges - Close The "Korea Discount Gap"

In this insight, we discuss 14 major Korean companies that may try to list their shares in the US exchanges in the next several years in order to...

Douglas Kim

Coupang IPO Trading - Most Hit near Term Peak on the First Day - Key Trading/Lock-Up Dates

Coupang, one of the largest product e-commerce players in Korea, raised around US$4.2bn in its US listing via a mix of selling primary and...

Sumeet Singh

Coupang IPO - Quick Note - Peers Move Down, Range Moves Up. Ripe for Trading.

Coupang,aims to raise up to US$4.0bn in its US listing via a mix of selling primary and secondary shares. In this note, we’ll talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

Coupang - Slightly Raises IPO Price Range & The "First Day Pop"

Coupang (CPNG US) announced today that it plans to complete its IPO at $32 to $34 per share, from the previous IPO price range of $27 to $30 per...

Douglas Kim

Coupang IPO and Softbank Group - A Vision Fund Jewel Emerges but It Is Pricey

Coupang's IPO is a win for the company and its largest holder Softbank but the max offer price of $30 is too pricey - we think it is worth closer...

Kirk Boodry

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