Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The key point is Saturday—watch if eight ruling party lawmakers defect. Hahn Dong-hoon may push for an early election, with 15 loyalists backing him, so it’s definitely possible.</li>
<li>I’d bet on the ruling party leader pivoting, accepting impeachment, and pushing for an early election. Time to scout beneficiaries and set up an aggressive trading play.</li>
<li>Short-Term, I’m eyeing Kakao affiliates, under-the-radar IT stocks, and those likely to benefit from corporate governance changes. Low birth rate-related sectors are also set for strong upside.</li>
</ul>


The key point is Saturday—watch if eight ruling party lawmakers defect. Hahn Dong-hoon may push for an early election, with 15 loyalists backing him, so it’s definitely possible.
I’d bet on the ruling party leader pivoting, accepting impeachment, and pushing for an early election. Time to scout beneficiaries and set up an aggressive trading play.
Short-Term, I’m eyeing Kakao affiliates, under-the-radar IT stocks, and those likely to benefit from corporate governance changes. Low birth rate-related sectors are also set for strong upside.


Latest Scoop on President Yoon’s Impeachment Motion and How to Play It in the Market

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As a result of the arrest of Kim Beom-Su, the near term impact on the Kakao companies (including Kakao Corp, Kakao Bank, Kakao Pay, and Kakao Games) is clearly negative.</li>
<li>Given that this is a highly publicized event, it is likely that this legal case will be PROLONGED and finally decided by the Supreme Court which could take several years.</li>
<li>Some of the scenarios include Kakao Group selling partial stakes in Kakao Bank and SM Entertainment but this is likely to get dragged on, resulting in further uncertainty.</li>
</ul>


As a result of the arrest of Kim Beom-Su, the near term impact on the Kakao companies (including Kakao Corp, Kakao Bank, Kakao Pay, and Kakao Games) is clearly negative.
Given that this is a highly publicized event, it is likely that this legal case will be PROLONGED and finally decided by the Supreme Court which could take several years.
Some of the scenarios include Kakao Group selling partial stakes in Kakao Bank and SM Entertainment but this is likely to get dragged on, resulting in further uncertainty.


Kakao Group Founder Kim Beom-Su Gets Arrested - What's Next?

<ul>
<li>It was reported in numerous local media in Korea that FSS is investigating Kakao Mobility for a potential accounting fraud. </li>
<li>There are suspicions that Kakao Mobility may have artificially inflated its sales from 2020 to 2023 to enhance the value of the company prior to its IPO listing. </li>
<li>Given that the regulators are unlikely to make a final decision on this matter until next year, this is likely to be negative on both Kakao Mobility and Kakao Corp. </li>
</ul>


It was reported in numerous local media in Korea that FSS is investigating Kakao Mobility for a potential accounting fraud. 
There are suspicions that Kakao Mobility may have artificially inflated its sales from 2020 to 2023 to enhance the value of the company prior to its IPO listing. 
Given that the regulators are unlikely to make a final decision on this matter until next year, this is likely to be negative on both Kakao Mobility and Kakao Corp. 


Concerns About A Major Accounting Fraud at Kakao Mobility

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

<ul>
<li>Multiple new agencies have been reporting that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> plans to trim its investment portfolio over the remainder of the year. </li>
<li>The reports have been coming in since the second half of the year and the company has been duly denying these rumors.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at Tencent’s shareholding in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how.</li>
</ul>


Multiple new agencies have been reporting that Tencent (700 HK) plans to trim its investment portfolio over the remainder of the year. 
The reports have been coming in since the second half of the year and the company has been duly denying these rumors.
In this note, we look at Tencent’s shareholding in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how.


Tencent Investee Selldown - The US$120bn Global Overhang

South Korea

Kakao Corp. provides Internet portal services such as news, free e-mail, and leisure information.  The Company also offers cross-platform mobile messaging application that allows users to exchange messages.

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Kakao Corp (035720 KS)

Latest Scoop on President Yoon’s Impeachment Motion and How to Play It in the Market

Yoon’s impeachment vote is locked in for Saturday at 7 PM, and today’s market? Total whiplash. The ruling party’s boycott plan throws odds back...

Sanghyun Park

Kakao Group Founder Kim Beom-Su Gets Arrested - What's Next?

As a result of the arrest of Kim Beom-Su, the near term impact on the Kakao companies (including Kakao Corp, Kakao Bank, Kakao Pay, and Kakao...

Douglas Kim

Concerns About A Major Accounting Fraud at Kakao Mobility

FSS is investigating Kakao Mobility for a potential, major accounting fraud. There are suspicions that Kakao Mobility may have artificially...

Douglas Kim

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

Tencent Investee Selldown - The US$120bn Global Overhang

There have been multiple reports that Tencent (700 HK) plans to trim its investment portfolio over the remainder of the year. We look at Tencent's...

Sumeet Singh

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