IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gcash" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40108:1" rel="noopener">GCash (Mynt) (GCASH PM)</a> is the No.1 finance super app in the Philippines. It is seeking to raise US$1.3 billion.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the IPO in <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mynt-gcash-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:249615" rel="noopener">Mynt (GCash) IPO: The Investment Case</a></em></strong>. </li>
<li>In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price is unattractive. The pricing date is 28 September.</li>
</ul>



GCash (Mynt) (GCASH PM) is the No.1 finance super app in the Philippines. It is seeking to raise US$1.3 billion.
I previously discussed the IPO in Mynt (GCash) IPO: The Investment Case. 
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price is unattractive. The pricing date is 28 September.


Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Once again, our shorts – especially Kakao Pay and Paytm – were more successful than our longs, given the protracted turbulent market conditions</li>
<li>For 2023, we favour Visa in the card network megacaps, adding Wise to the buys and we stick with PagSeguro; we drop Nexi from the buy list</li>
<li>Among our shorts, we stick with our negative view on DLocal, given its high take-rate and demanding valuations, and we stay negative on Kakao Pay due to its fundamental over-valuation</li>
</ul>


Once again, our shorts – especially Kakao Pay and Paytm – were more successful than our longs, given the protracted turbulent market conditions
For 2023, we favour Visa in the card network megacaps, adding Wise to the buys and we stick with PagSeguro; we drop Nexi from the buy list
Among our shorts, we stick with our negative view on DLocal, given its high take-rate and demanding valuations, and we stay negative on Kakao Pay due to its fundamental over-valuation


Payment Companies – 2022 in Review, Our High Conviction Calls for 2023

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<ul>
<li>The Ministry of Health Labor and Welfare is likely to allow funds transfer service providers (cashless apps) to support digital salary payments </li>
<li>That could boost user and transaction volume growth rates although there are challenges like remittance limits and direct access to cash that need to be addressed</li>
<li>An expansion in utility is positive although comparable valuations from global peers remains under pressure</li>
</ul>


The Ministry of Health Labor and Welfare is likely to allow funds transfer service providers (cashless apps) to support digital salary payments 
That could boost user and transaction volume growth rates although there are challenges like remittance limits and direct access to cash that need to be addressed
An expansion in utility is positive although comparable valuations from global peers remains under pressure


Japan Fintech - Rule Changes Should Benefit Cashless Apps like PayPay

<ul>
<li>Japanese Internet companies are testing lows from the 2020 tech selloff whilst Rakuten stands out for reaching levels last seen in 2010</li>
<li>Z Holdings is at a two-year low but has fallen the same distance from its recent high (-53%) </li>
<li>Both face robust competition from Amazon, which has doubled its eCommerce GMV in Japan over the last four years (Rakuten +60%, core Z Holdings +47%)</li>
</ul>


Japanese Internet companies are testing lows from the 2020 tech selloff whilst Rakuten stands out for reaching levels last seen in 2010
Z Holdings is at a two-year low but has fallen the same distance from its recent high (-53%) 
Both face robust competition from Amazon, which has doubled its eCommerce GMV in Japan over the last four years (Rakuten +60%, core Z Holdings +47%)


Japan Internet - Fresh Lows for Many with Rakuten the Lowest Since 2010

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Henry Kissinger's statement that Ukraine must give Russia some territory could be a crucial inflection point in the global markets.</li>
<li>Most of the market rebound in KOSPI in the past 100 days have occurred in the past one week.</li>
<li>The rally in global equity markets in the past week seems to suggest some higher probability that the war in Ukraine could be ended in the next several months. </li>
</ul>


Henry Kissinger's statement that Ukraine must give Russia some territory could be a crucial inflection point in the global markets.
Most of the market rebound in KOSPI in the past 100 days have occurred in the past one week.
The rally in global equity markets in the past week seems to suggest some higher probability that the war in Ukraine could be ended in the next several months. 


Kissinger's Warning that Ukraine Must Give Russia Territory - A Key Inflection Point for KOSPI?

South Korea

Kakao Pay Corp. operates financial businesses. The Company provides online payment, currency encryption, and other services. Kakao Pay conducts businesses in South Korea.

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Kakaopay (377300 KS)

Mynt (GCash) IPO: Valuation Insights

GCash (Mynt) is the No.1 finance super app in the Philippines. It is seeking to raise US$1.3 billion. In this note, I present my forecasts and...

Arun George

Payment Companies – 2022 in Review, Our High Conviction Calls for 2023

For 2023, we favour Visa in the card network megacaps, adding Wise to the buys and we stick with PagSeguro; for shorts, we remain negative on...

Victor Galliano

Japan Fintech - Rule Changes Should Benefit Cashless Apps like PayPay

The MHLW is likely to update rules on digital wage payments by fiscal year end, opening the door for cashless apps to participate. That is positive...

Kirk Boodry

Japan Internet - Fresh Lows for Many with Rakuten the Lowest Since 2010

Tech sector weakness amplifies concerns on competition for Rakuten and Z Holdings. Both are down 50%+ from recent highs with Rakuten at levels last...

Kirk Boodry

Kissinger's Warning that Ukraine Must Give Russia Territory - A Key Inflection Point for KOSPI?

Henry Kissinger's statement that Ukraine must give Russia some territory could be a crucial inflection point in the global markets. Global equity...

Douglas Kim

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