Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-shinyaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6634:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP)</a>'s FY24 revenue guidance is 3% below mid-term target, while operating and net profits guidance are 20% and 17% below the target, respectively.  </li>
<li>Revenue growth of Viltepso is expected to decelerate to 28% in FY24 from 85% in FY23, dragged by the U.S. sales, which contributes 74% of Viltepso revenue.</li>
<li>Rival <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sarepta-therapeutics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17729:1" rel="noopener">Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT US)</a> is expected to receive FDA approval for its next DMD gene therapy drug this month, leading to a new competition for Viltepso.</li>
</ul>



Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP)'s FY24 revenue guidance is 3% below mid-term target, while operating and net profits guidance are 20% and 17% below the target, respectively.  
Revenue growth of Viltepso is expected to decelerate to 28% in FY24 from 85% in FY23, dragged by the U.S. sales, which contributes 74% of Viltepso revenue.
Rival Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT US) is expected to receive FDA approval for its next DMD gene therapy drug this month, leading to a new competition for Viltepso.


Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): FY24 Guidance Falls Short of Mid-Term Target; DMD Drug Growth Slows Down

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co / Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisamitsu-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17008:1" rel="noopener">Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP)</a> has announced solid Q3FY23 results, with double-digit revenue growth and triple-digit operating and net profit growth, mainly driven by the OTC business of the company.</li>
<li>With the resumption of sporting/outdoor events globally and increasing unwillingness to use opioid for pain relief especially in the U.S., Salonpas is expected to continue its growth trajectory.</li>
<li>Hisamitsu has reiterated FY23 guidance. However, considering the current progress rate of all the parameters versus guidance, we think actual performance of Hisamitsu will exceed guidance.</li>
</ul>



Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP) has announced solid Q3FY23 results, with double-digit revenue growth and triple-digit operating and net profit growth, mainly driven by the OTC business of the company.
With the resumption of sporting/outdoor events globally and increasing unwillingness to use opioid for pain relief especially in the U.S., Salonpas is expected to continue its growth trajectory.
Hisamitsu has reiterated FY23 guidance. However, considering the current progress rate of all the parameters versus guidance, we think actual performance of Hisamitsu will exceed guidance.


Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): Strong Q3 Result Driven by Salonpas; FY23 Guidance Reiterated

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<li>In H1FY23, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaken-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18819:1" rel="noopener">Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP)</a> reported 2% revenue decline to ¥36.8 billion, as the company’s key branded drugs, including Clenafin, Artz, and Seprafilm are recording decelerating sales.</li>
<li>Newer drugs, including Ecclock, Regroth, and Hernicore reported revenue growth of 47.8%, 4.1%, and 4.1%, y/y, respectively. However, these three drugs contributed just 4% of total revenue.</li>
<li>Lower revenue and higher operating expenses (+2% y/y) pulled down operating profit by 9% y/y to ¥8.2 billion. Operating margin decreased 170bps to 22.3%.</li>
</ul>


In H1FY23, Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP) reported 2% revenue decline to ¥36.8 billion, as the company’s key branded drugs, including Clenafin, Artz, and Seprafilm are recording decelerating sales.
Newer drugs, including Ecclock, Regroth, and Hernicore reported revenue growth of 47.8%, 4.1%, and 4.1%, y/y, respectively. However, these three drugs contributed just 4% of total revenue.
Lower revenue and higher operating expenses (+2% y/y) pulled down operating profit by 9% y/y to ¥8.2 billion. Operating margin decreased 170bps to 22.3%.


Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP): H1FY23 Review- Key Drugs Continued to Fall; Guidance Reiterated

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaken-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18819:1" rel="noopener">Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP)</a> is reporting declining revenue from its three largest selling products, due to NHI price revision. These products together contribute more than 60% of total revenue.</li>
<li>The company’s newly launched products are growing at a rapid pace. However, the fastest growing product Ecclock contribute just 2% of total revenue.</li>
<li>Kaken guided for just 1% y/y revenue growth and 12% y/y decline in operating profit in FY23. Due to pipeline expansion, R&amp;D expenses are likely to remain elevated.</li>
</ul>



Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP) is reporting declining revenue from its three largest selling products, due to NHI price revision. These products together contribute more than 60% of total revenue.
The company’s newly launched products are growing at a rapid pace. However, the fastest growing product Ecclock contribute just 2% of total revenue.
Kaken guided for just 1% y/y revenue growth and 12% y/y decline in operating profit in FY23. Due to pipeline expansion, R&amp;D expenses are likely to remain elevated.


Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP): Falling Revenue of Top-Selling Drugs Limit Near-Term Growth Prospect

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<li>For the near-term, focus will be on the marketing partnership for ATS, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder treatment patch. FDA action date is in late December.</li>
<li>Lower domestic sales of OTC pharmaceuticals due to the lack of sports events remains the major downside risk for Hisamitsu. Revenue from its largest selling Rx brand is also declining.</li>
<li>Management reiterated FY22 guidance and announced a buyback plan worth ¥12 billion.</li>
</ul>


For the near-term, focus will be on the marketing partnership for ATS, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder treatment patch. FDA action date is in late December.
Lower domestic sales of OTC pharmaceuticals due to the lack of sports events remains the major downside risk for Hisamitsu. Revenue from its largest selling Rx brand is also declining.
Management reiterated FY22 guidance and announced a buyback plan worth ¥12 billion.


Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): Focus Shifts to ADHD Treatment Patch and Other Upcoming Launches

Japan

KAKEN PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD. develops, produces, and sells pharmaceuticals and agrochemicals.  The Company's products are mainly for nervous, circulatory, respiratory, digestive, urinary, sensory, and metabolic systems.  Kaken Pharmaceutical also manufactures antibiotics and feed additives.  The Company as well manufactures air purifiers and operates real estate business.

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Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP)

Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): FY24 Guidance Falls Short of Mid-Term Target; DMD Drug Growth Slows Down

Nippon Shinyaku’s FY24 revenue, operating and net profits guidance are 3%, 20%, and 17% below mid-term target, respectively. Viltepso revenue...

Tina Banerjee

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): Strong Q3 Result Driven by Salonpas; FY23 Guidance Reiterated

Hisamitsu announced solid Q3 results, with double-digit revenue and triple-digit operating and net profit growth, mainly driven by the OTC...

Tina Banerjee