'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/125/157/original/File%202020-03-28%2015%2042%2009.jpeg?1585378270" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="125157"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Mainichi Photography</div>STAY AT HOME (PLEASE) - With the 2020 Olympics now destined for 2021, the authorities can focus on containing Covid-19 which continues to spread in Tokyo.  Governor Koike and the Governors of the surrounding prefectures have responded to the recent growth in cases in the metropolis by requesting that citizens stay at home this weekend. Parks and many shops and restaurants have closed, and inclement weather (it is snowing across most of the Kanto plain this Sunday) has resulted in a high degree of compliance.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/125/263/original/File%202020-03-29%206%2035%2050.jpeg?1585431441" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="125263"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • aatishb.com</div>CATCHING UP - Without the implementation of the measures adopted in China and South Korea, Japan is now moving more in line with the global trends shown above in terms of log-scale incremental rate of change. Sixty-three new cases were reported on Saturday, the largest single-day total to date. Over half of the new cases were in the 'Longevity General Hospital' in Taito Ward, taking the total for the capital to 362. For Japan as a whole, the total one cases for Saturday was 194 a 68% one-day increase. Covid-19 fatalities increased by six to 53.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/125/264/original/File%202020-03-29%206%2037%2003.jpeg?1585431468" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="125264"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • aatishb.com</div>THE SWEDISH MODEL - PM Abe is concerned that a full societal 'lockdown' would damage the economy and has yet to invoke his newly-minted emergency powers - which, in any case, do not provide for such a measure. For now, Japan is following Sweden's social experiment of permitting life to go on as usual as much as possible. Both countries have been criticised for their 'novel' approach; however, their trajectories are noticeably different from the US and Italy. Let us hope than Japan's remarkably low-incidence of, and CFR from, Covid-19 infection can hold.CORONA 'SHOKKU' - At a press conference yesterday Abe pledged to introduce an economic package that would exceed Japan's response to the "Lehman Shock" with a particular focus on SMEs and distressed households. The details are to be announced in the next ten days.RATIONING BOOK - In other news, Kinokuniya bookstore in Tokyo is limiting purchases of the now-existential necessity Camus' The Plague' to one per person.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/125/256/original/2020-03-28_08-20-51.png?1585429894" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="125256"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>PULLING OUT ALL THE STOPS - On Thursday the Bank of Japan's ETF purchase programme constituted 6% of Value Traded as the total interventions this month now total ¥1.3 trillion has recovered 18% from the last weeks' low and is 'only' 16% below the December high. Our Results Score is now negative, and the Forecast/Revision Score will follow next week. With over 3 billion people around the world in some form of social isolation, we expect both of our Scores to reach new five year lows by May and for equities to follow, despite Governor Kuroda's machinations.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/125/260/original/2020-03-29_06-20-04.png?1585430434" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="125260"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>NO MAN'S LAND - As Aggregate TTM and Forecast Operating and Net Income head lower, the last week's bear-market-bounce has taken multiples back towards the long-term averages. With 3 quarters of results before a possible cycle low, Japanese equities are stuck in no man's land, neither overvalued not undervalued.  <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/125/158/original/2020-03-28_15-56-17.png?1585378601" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="125158"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/125/305/original/2020-03-29_08-40-46.png?1585438866" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="125305"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>FRIDAY 27th MARCH - Friday saw six companies reporting results, of which two - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jastec-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9201:1" rel="noopener">Jastec (9717 JP)</a>- and<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/niitaka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4911:1" rel="noopener">Niitaka (4465 JP)</a> had positive scores. Fifteen companies revised their forecasts, and one - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/imv-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14159:1" rel="noopener">IMV (7760 JP)</a> withdrew its forecast entirely. In terms of our scoring system, the ratio of positive to negative 'scores' was 6:10, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jfe-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:210:1" rel="noopener">JFE (5411 JP)</a> being the largest negative-scoring company. High-tech lamp maker <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ushio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6640:1" rel="noopener">Ushio (6925 JP)</a> cut its forecast for Operating Income to ¥6b - which would be the lowest outcome since 1994 and implies a fourth-quarter operating loss of ¥0.35b.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>announced that its forecasts made in February are now likely to be revised down and that the company may not be able to release FY2020 earnings as scheduled on 30th April due to delays in accounting procedures. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a>has shut down two plants in Japan, reflecting a weaker sales outlook.

Source • Mainichi PhotographySTAY AT HOME (PLEASE) - With the 2020 Olympics now destined for 2021, the authorities can focus on containing Covid-19 which continues to spread in Tokyo.  Governor Koike and the Governors of the surrounding prefectures have responded to the recent growth in cases in the metropolis by requesting that citizens stay at home this weekend. Parks and many shops and restaurants have closed, and inclement weather (it is snowing across most of the Kanto plain this Sunday) has resulted in a high degree of compliance.Source • aatishb.comCATCHING UP - Without the implementation of the measures adopted in China and South Korea, Japan is now moving more in line with the global trends shown above in terms of log-scale incremental rate of change. Sixty-three new cases were reported on Saturday, the largest single-day total to date. Over half of the new cases were in the 'Longevity General Hospital' in Taito Ward, taking the total for the capital to 362. For Japan as a whole, the total one cases for Saturday was 194 a 68% one-day increase. Covid-19 fatalities increased by six to 53.Source • aatishb.comTHE SWEDISH MODEL - PM Abe is concerned that a full societal 'lockdown' would damage the economy and has yet to invoke his newly-minted emergency powers - which, in any case, do not provide for such a measure. For now, Japan is following Sweden's social experiment of permitting life to go on as usual as much as possible. Both countries have been criticised for their 'novel' approach; however, their trajectories are noticeably different from the US and Italy. Let us hope than Japan's remarkably low-incidence of, and CFR from, Covid-19 infection can hold.CORONA 'SHOKKU' - At a press conference yesterday Abe pledged to introduce an economic package that would exceed Japan's response to the "Lehman Shock" with a particular focus on SMEs and distressed households. The details are to be announced in the next ten days.RATIONING BOOK - In other news, Kinokuniya bookstore in Tokyo is limiting purchases of the now-existential necessity Camus' The Plague' to one per person.Source • Japan AnalyticsPULLING OUT ALL THE STOPS - On Thursday the Bank of Japan's ETF purchase programme constituted 6% of Value Traded as the total interventions this month now total ¥1.3 trillion has recovered 18% from the last weeks' low and is 'only' 16% below the December high. Our Results Score is now negative, and the Forecast/Revision Score will follow next week. With over 3 billion people around the world in some form of social isolation, we expect both of our Scores to reach new five year lows by May and for equities to follow, despite Governor Kuroda's machinations.Source • Japan AnalyticsNO MAN'S LAND - As Aggregate TTM and Forecast Operating and Net Income head lower, the last week's bear-market-bounce has taken multiples back towards the long-term averages. With 3 quarters of results before a possible cycle low, Japanese equities are stuck in no man's land, neither overvalued not undervalued.  Source • Japan AnalyticsFRIDAY 27th MARCH - Friday saw six companies reporting results, of which two - Jastec (9717 JP)- andNiitaka (4465 JP) had positive scores. Fifteen companies revised their forecasts, and one - IMV (7760 JP) withdrew its forecast entirely. In terms of our scoring system, the ratio of positive to negative 'scores' was 6:10, with JFE (5411 JP) being the largest negative-scoring company. High-tech lamp maker Ushio (6925 JP) cut its forecast for Operating Income to ¥6b - which would be the lowest outcome since 1994 and implies a fourth-quarter operating loss of ¥0.35b.Sony (6758 JP)announced that its forecasts made in February are now likely to be revised down and that the company may not be able to release FY2020 earnings as scheduled on 30th April due to delays in accounting procedures. Honda Motor (7267 JP)has shut down two plants in Japan, reflecting a weaker sales outlook.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Alert - 27th March - A Weekend at Home with the Swedish Model

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Global equities remain in a short-term consolidation phase, however we continue to believe the longer-term trend is up and to the right for the MSCI ACWI following the late-October breakout.  In this report we recap important technical levels across all major indexes and highlight actionable opportunities within Global Health Care stocks, which are hitting on all cylinders, with plenty of opportunities across various industries (services, devices/equipment, pharmaceuticals, biotech, etc.) and geographies (Europe, Japan, China, EM, etc.).

Global equities remain in a short-term consolidation phase, however we continue to believe the longer-term trend is up and to the right for the MSCI ACWI following the late-October breakout.  In this report we recap important technical levels across all major indexes and highlight actionable opportunities within Global Health Care stocks, which are hitting on all cylinders, with plenty of opportunities across various industries (services, devices/equipment, pharmaceuticals, biotech, etc.) and geographies (Europe, Japan, China, EM, etc.).

Global Equity Strategy: Health Care Hitting On All Cylinders - Overweight

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In FY26, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-shinyaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6634:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP)</a> revenue grew 7% YoY to ¥170B driven by growth in etical drugs revenue, higher licensing fees and operating profit stood at ¥35.5B (flat YoY).</li>
<li>Viltepso witnessed slowing in US. Licensing income increased on higher overseas sales of Uptravi. Newly launched drugs like Vyxeos and Fintepla continue to show promise.</li>
<li>Company expects FY27 revenue to be ¥200B (up 17% YoY) taking into account Uptravi’s royalty income, U.S. launch of CAP-1002 (deramiocel) and growth in the domestic products.</li>
</ul>


In FY26, Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP) revenue grew 7% YoY to ¥170B driven by growth in etical drugs revenue, higher licensing fees and operating profit stood at ¥35.5B (flat YoY).
Viltepso witnessed slowing in US. Licensing income increased on higher overseas sales of Uptravi. Newly launched drugs like Vyxeos and Fintepla continue to show promise.
Company expects FY27 revenue to be ¥200B (up 17% YoY) taking into account Uptravi’s royalty income, U.S. launch of CAP-1002 (deramiocel) and growth in the domestic products.


Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): FY27 Guidance Signals Recovery, Speed Bumps Remain

Asia Healthcare Analyst, Pathology Associates Limited

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Asia Healthcare Analyst

Pathology Associates Limited

<ul>
<li>The Japanese government recently announced its decision to initiate an ad-hoc price reduction of ~4.35%, to be levied in October 2019, this will be in addition to the scheduled biennial price revisions (<a href="https://pj.jiho.jp/article/239057" target="_blank">source</a>).</li>
<li>The October 2019 scheduled price cuts will have nominal overall impact; however, we highlight a few companies that are relatively more vulnerable to ongoing price reforms.</li>
<li>
Mitsubishi Tanabe, Taisho, Santen, Kaken, Kyorin and Kissei generate &gt;50% of revenue from the domestic market and are projected to continue to do so over next 3-5 years.</li>
<li>Furthermore, the contribution from long listed (LL) drugs is much higher for the above-mentioned companies, which makes them relatively vulnerable to ongoing price reforms (price cuts for LL drugs are much higher than the average).</li>
<li>On the other hand, Ono, KHK and Nippon Shinyaku, despite a high proportion of domestic revenue (as a % of total revenue), have only limited contribution from LL drugs.</li>
<li>Ono’s Opdivo, however, will continue to face market expansion led special price cuts going forward.</li>
</ul><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/073/794/original/Domestic%20sales%20as%20a%20%25%20of%20total%20sales.PNG?1545456784" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="73794"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/073/796/original/LL%20as%20a%20%25%20of%20Domestic.PNG?1545456892" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="73796"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Company data, Pathology Associates research</div><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">* Companies with financial year ending December, Taisho domestic pharma includes OTC sales, N Kayaku domestic pharma sales includes Generics and Biosimilar sales</div>


The Japanese government recently announced its decision to initiate an ad-hoc price reduction of ~4.35%, to be levied in October 2019, this will be in addition to the scheduled biennial price revisions (source).
The October 2019 scheduled price cuts will have nominal overall impact; however, we highlight a few companies that are relatively more vulnerable to ongoing price reforms.

Mitsubishi Tanabe, Taisho, Santen, Kaken, Kyorin and Kissei generate &gt;50% of revenue from the domestic market and are projected to continue to do so over next 3-5 years.
Furthermore, the contribution from long listed (LL) drugs is much higher for the above-mentioned companies, which makes them relatively vulnerable to ongoing price reforms (price cuts for LL drugs are much higher than the average).
On the other hand, Ono, KHK and Nippon Shinyaku, despite a high proportion of domestic revenue (as a % of total revenue), have only limited contribution from LL drugs.
Ono’s Opdivo, however, will continue to face market expansion led special price cuts going forward.
Source: Company data, Pathology Associates research* Companies with financial year ending December, Taisho domestic pharma includes OTC sales, N Kayaku domestic pharma sales includes Generics and Biosimilar sales

Japan Pharma - Domestic Market and Long Listed Drug Exposure

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kissei-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18303:1" rel="noopener">Kissei Pharmaceutical (4547 JP)</a> reported 10% YoY jump in revenue during FY26 driven by Beova, Tavneos and IT services amidst price revision pressures and generic competition.</li>
<li>Kissei announced FY27 guidance numbers. The company expects FY27 revenue to drop 2% YoY to ¥95.7B. Extraordinary income would help company post a net profit of ¥14.5B in FY27.</li>
<li>Kissei in touch with authorities regarding the negative developments on Tavneos. For now, Linzagolix seems to be major growth catalyst with ample potential to play out in the long term.</li>
</ul>



Kissei Pharmaceutical (4547 JP) reported 10% YoY jump in revenue during FY26 driven by Beova, Tavneos and IT services amidst price revision pressures and generic competition.
Kissei announced FY27 guidance numbers. The company expects FY27 revenue to drop 2% YoY to ¥95.7B. Extraordinary income would help company post a net profit of ¥14.5B in FY27.
Kissei in touch with authorities regarding the negative developments on Tavneos. For now, Linzagolix seems to be major growth catalyst with ample potential to play out in the long term.


Kissei Pharma (4547 JP): FY27 Guidance Revealed, Tavneos Hiccup Amid Linzagolix Positives

Japan

KAKEN PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD. develops, produces, and sells pharmaceuticals and agrochemicals.  The Company's products are mainly for nervous, circulatory, respiratory, digestive, urinary, sensory, and metabolic systems.  Kaken Pharmaceutical also manufactures antibiotics and feed additives.  The Company as well manufactures air purifiers and operates real estate business.

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Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Alert - 27th March - A Weekend at Home with the Swedish Model

STAY AT HOME (PLEASE) - With the 2020 Olympics now destined for 2021, the authorities can focus on containing Covid-19 which continues to spread in...

Campbell Gunn

Global Equity Strategy: Health Care Hitting On All Cylinders - Overweight

Global equities remain in a short-term consolidation phase, however we continue to believe the longer-term trend is up and to the right for the...

Vermilion Research

Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): FY27 Guidance Signals Recovery, Speed Bumps Remain

Nippon Shinyaku's FY26 revenue grew 7% to ¥170B, driven by ethical drugs and higher licensing fees. FY27 revenue expected to reach ¥200B with...

Tina Banerjee

Japan Pharma - Domestic Market and Long Listed Drug Exposure

The Japanese government recently announced its decision to initiate an ad-hoc price reduction of ~4.35%, to be levied in October 2019, this will...

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Kissei Pharma (4547 JP): FY27 Guidance Revealed, Tavneos Hiccup Amid Linzagolix Positives

Kissei Pharmaceutical revenue grows driven by Beova, Tavneos, and IT services despite challenges. Expects drop in revenue for FY27. Linzagolix...

Tina Banerjee

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Alert - 27th March - A Weekend at Home with the Swedish Model

STAY AT HOME (PLEASE) - With the 2020 Olympics now destined for 2021, the authorities can focus on containing Covid-19 which continues to spread in...

Campbell Gunn

Global Equity Strategy: Health Care Hitting On All Cylinders - Overweight

Global equities remain in a short-term consolidation phase, however we continue to believe the longer-term trend is up and to the right for the...

Vermilion Research

Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): FY27 Guidance Signals Recovery, Speed Bumps Remain

​Nippon Shinyaku's FY26 revenue grew 7% to ¥170B, driven by ethical drugs and higher licensing fees. FY27 revenue expected to reach ¥200B with...

Tina Banerjee

Japan Pharma - Domestic Market and Long Listed Drug Exposure

The Japanese government recently announced its decision to initiate an ad-hoc price reduction of ~4.35%, to be levied in October 2019, this will...

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Kissei Pharma (4547 JP): FY27 Guidance Revealed, Tavneos Hiccup Amid Linzagolix Positives

​Kissei Pharmaceutical revenue grows driven by Beova, Tavneos, and IT services despite challenges. Expects drop in revenue for FY27. Linzagolix...

Tina Banerjee

Nippon Shinyaku's FY26 revenue grew 7% to ¥170B, driven by ethical drugs and higher licensing fees. FY27 revenue expected to reach ¥200B with...

Kissei Pharmaceutical revenue grows driven by Beova, Tavneos, and IT services despite challenges. Expects drop in revenue for FY27. Linzagolix...