'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><p>We resume our series of daily Results &amp; Revisions updates with last Friday's best and worst pairing of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-parking-development-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6834:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Parking Development (2353 JP) </a>and construction equipment rental specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kanamoto-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1639:1" rel="noopener">Kanamoto (9678 JP).</a></p><section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/176/720/original/2020-12-07_06-27-38.png?1607290093" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="176720"></figure></section></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/176/717/original/2020-12-07_05-35-55.png?1607286971" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="176717"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •We resume our series of daily Results &amp; Revisions updates with last Friday's best and worst pairing of Nippon Parking Development (2353 JP) and construction equipment rental specialist Kanamoto (9678 JP).Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​04 - Nippon Parking Dev. & Kanamoto

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/157/299/original/2020-09-06_14-17-48.png?1599369500" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="157299"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source for all charts: Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>(It's a) </strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tea-life-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6199:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Tea Life  (3172 JP)</strong></a> - Micro-cap Tea Life combines two of the hottest market themes - online retailing and health food and has seen its shares rise 62% over the last month. Fourth-quarter operating margins fell year-on-year, and the initial forecasts for the current year are cautious. The market-implied growth rate of zero is too low; however, the company has yet to see any significant incremental returns for the debt-funded 160% increase in Net Operating Assets over the last four years. </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/157/301/original/2020-09-06_14-22-10.png?1599369747" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="157301"></figure>
<hr>
<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div>
<hr>
<div>
<p><strong>PERCENTAGES </strong>-<strong> 65%</strong> of quarterly results,<strong> 71%</strong> of annual forecasts/revisions and<strong> 57%</strong> of interim forecasts have negative Scores. <strong>43%</strong> of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.</p>
</div>
<hr>
<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>23 Quarterly Results</strong></p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 30% Positive / 4% Neutral / 65% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -2.7 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -15.7% Quarter YoY / -6.8% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.9 ppt <strong><em>(ex tella)</em></strong>
</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losse</strong>s: 43%</li>
</ul>
</div>
<hr>
<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>17 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 29% Positive / 0% Neutral / 71% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 43% Positive / 0% Neutral / 57% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: </strong>-6.3 points</li>
</ul>
</div>


Source for all charts: Japan Analytics
(It's a) Tea Life  (3172 JP) - Micro-cap Tea Life combines two of the hottest market themes - online retailing and health food and has seen its shares rise 62% over the last month. Fourth-quarter operating margins fell year-on-year, and the initial forecasts for the current year are cautious. The market-implied growth rate of zero is too low; however, the company has yet to see any significant incremental returns for the debt-funded 160% increase in Net Operating Assets over the last four years. 



DAILY STATS



PERCENTAGES - 65% of quarterly results, 71% of annual forecasts/revisions and 57% of interim forecasts have negative Scores. 43% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.



23 Quarterly Results




Results Score: 30% Positive / 4% Neutral / 65% Negative

Average Results Score Change: -2.7 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -15.7% Quarter YoY / -6.8% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.9 ppt (ex tella)


Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 43%




17 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions




Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 29% Positive / 0% Neutral / 71% Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 43% Positive / 0% Neutral / 57% Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -6.3 points



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​04 - (It's A) Tea Life, Kanamoto(& Nagawa), HI-LEX, SoftServ

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

<p>Now there are two thought processes 1- Analysts pick up coverage of names that are going up and drop coverage of names that are going down. 2- Companies with more coverage get a lot more airtime in front of Investors and as a result the price goes up. Companies that lose coverage lose that airtime and are more easily forgotten. I think it is a combination of both. </p><p>However despite the reasons, there is a significant difference in price performance between the two groups. Companies that went from…</p>

Now there are two thought processes 1- Analysts pick up coverage of names that are going up and drop coverage of names that are going down. 2- Companies with more coverage get a lot more airtime in front of Investors and as a result the price goes up. Companies that lose coverage lose that airtime and are more easily forgotten. I think it is a combination of both. However despite the reasons, there is a significant difference in price performance between the two groups. Companies that went from…

Names with Increasing Coverage Significantly Outperform Names with Decreasing Coverage....

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Horizon Construction Development / Equity Capital Markets

Horizon Construction Development (1887128D HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-construction-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35117:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Construction Development (1887128D HK)</a>/HCD, a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/far-east-horizon-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:420:1" rel="noopener">Far East Horizon (3360 HK)</a>, has launched its HKEx listing at HK$4.52-4.80 per share to raise up to US$223 million.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/horizon-construction-development-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:100813" rel="noopener">Horizon Construction Development IPO: The Bull Case</a></em></strong> and <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/horizon-construction-development-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:100922" rel="noopener">Horizon Construction Development IPO: The Bear Case</a></em></strong>. </li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that HCD is fully priced at the IPO price range. Therefore, we are inclined to pass on the IPO. </li>
</ul>



Horizon Construction Development (1887128D HK)/HCD, a subsidiary of Far East Horizon (3360 HK), has launched its HKEx listing at HK$4.52-4.80 per share to raise up to US$223 million.
We previously discussed the IPO in Horizon Construction Development IPO: The Bull Case and Horizon Construction Development IPO: The Bear Case. 
Our valuation analysis suggests that HCD is fully priced at the IPO price range. Therefore, we are inclined to pass on the IPO. 


Horizon Construction Development IPO: Valuation Insights

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As designed, the JPX-Nikkei400 Index is something of a disaster. It aims to be slightly 'smart' vs other cap-weighted indices like TOPIX, but tracking error vs TOPIX is de minimus.</li>
<li>This year, in week 1, the ADD vs DELETE performance is positive. If we sector-hedge the ADDs vs DELETEs, it's doing even better.</li>
<li>This is probably due to relatively low pre-positioning, and cares. Momentum suggests one could be long ADDs vs DELETEs. And there is the perennial trade to watch out for.</li>
</ul>


As designed, the JPX-Nikkei400 Index is something of a disaster. It aims to be slightly 'smart' vs other cap-weighted indices like TOPIX, but tracking error vs TOPIX is de minimus.
This year, in week 1, the ADD vs DELETE performance is positive. If we sector-hedge the ADDs vs DELETEs, it's doing even better.
This is probably due to relatively low pre-positioning, and cares. Momentum suggests one could be long ADDs vs DELETEs. And there is the perennial trade to watch out for.


2022 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebal Update - Going the Right Way

Japan

KANAMOTO CO., LTD. leases a wide variety of construction machinery.  The Company also sells steel products and computer equipment.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Kanamoto Co Ltd (9678 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/04 - Nippon Parking Dev. & Kanamoto

We resume our series of daily Results & Revisions updates with last Friday's best and worst pairing of Nippon Parking Development and construction...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/04 - (It's A) Tea Life, Kanamoto(& Nagawa), HI-LEX, SoftServ

(It's a) Tea Life (3172 JP) - Micro-cap Tea Life combines two of the hottest market themes - online retailing and health food and has seen its...

Campbell Gunn

Names with Increasing Coverage Significantly Outperform Names with Decreasing Coverage....

Now there are two thought processes 1- Analysts pick up coverage of names that are going up and drop coverage of names that are going down. 2-...

Custom Products Group

Horizon Construction Development IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that HCD is fully priced at the IPO price range. Therefore, we are inclined to pass on the IPO.

Arun George

2022 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebal Update - Going the Right Way

JPX Nikkei 400 rebalance is going the right way in the 6 trading days so far, and it wasn't done on Day1 (which was lacklustre). It may be under...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​04 - Nippon Parking Dev. & Kanamoto

We resume our series of daily Results & Revisions updates with last Friday's best and worst pairing of Nippon Parking Development and construction...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​04 - (It's A) Tea Life, Kanamoto(& Nagawa), HI-LEX, SoftServ

(It's a) Tea Life (3172 JP) - Micro-cap Tea Life combines two of the hottest market themes - online retailing and health food and has seen its...

Campbell Gunn

Names with Increasing Coverage Significantly Outperform Names with Decreasing Coverage....

Now there are two thought processes 1- Analysts pick up coverage of names that are going up and drop coverage of names that are going down. 2-...

Custom Products Group

Horizon Construction Development IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that HCD is fully priced at the IPO price range. Therefore, we are inclined to pass on the IPO.

Arun George

2022 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebal Update - Going the Right Way

JPX Nikkei 400 rebalance is going the right way in the 6 trading days so far, and it wasn't done on Day1 (which was lacklustre). It may be under...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/04 - Nippon Parking Dev. & Kanamoto

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/04 - (It's A) Tea Life, Kanamoto(& Nagawa), HI-LEX, SoftServ