Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX Flat as Debt Limit talks Weight; Fed's Bullard sees 2 more hikes; China Ban's Micron's Chips; Ford Moves to secure Lithium supplies. CEO sees Auto prices falling 5%</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% premium vs Cash; Japan to tighten rules on Semi exports to China; Kansai Elect,  CyrusOne set up Japan JV to invest in DataCenters</li>
<li>NUGGET.  Japan passed the GX Promotion Law that will support 150 trillion of investment over the next 10 years. Decarbonization boom in Japan is just beginning..</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX Flat as Debt Limit talks Weight; Fed's Bullard sees 2 more hikes; China Ban's Micron's Chips; Ford Moves to secure Lithium supplies. CEO sees Auto prices falling 5%
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% premium vs Cash; Japan to tighten rules on Semi exports to China; Kansai Elect,  CyrusOne set up Japan JV to invest in DataCenters
NUGGET.  Japan passed the GX Promotion Law that will support 150 trillion of investment over the next 10 years. Decarbonization boom in Japan is just beginning..


Ohayo Japan |SPX Flat;Crunch Time on the Debt; NUGGET: GX Promotion Law - Decarbonization Boom Ahead

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.
We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.


Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.</li>
<li>Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.</li>
<li>With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.
Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.
With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).


Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  Bullard Calms Recession fears; SPX stabilizes; 2Yr Yields Rise: Non Farm Payrolls in Focus ahead of Good Friday Holidays </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY 131.7; ex-IMF Chief Economist Blanchard says BOJ to remain accomodative;  JP Corporates doubles buying of own stocks in 2022; Point 72 JP expansion</li>
<li>NUGGET.  KEPCO reconfirmed its plan to bring 2 addl Nuclear power plans online in a few months. The profit uptick will be considerable. We maintain KEPCO as a TOP PICK.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  Bullard Calms Recession fears; SPX stabilizes; 2Yr Yields Rise: Non Farm Payrolls in Focus ahead of Good Friday Holidays 
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY 131.7; ex-IMF Chief Economist Blanchard says BOJ to remain accomodative;  JP Corporates doubles buying of own stocks in 2022; Point 72 JP expansion
NUGGET.  KEPCO reconfirmed its plan to bring 2 addl Nuclear power plans online in a few months. The profit uptick will be considerable. We maintain KEPCO as a TOP PICK.


Good Morning Japan |Fed's Bullard Offers Comfort; NUGGET: Kansai Electric- Watch the Nuke Restarts !

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX broke 4 day winning streak as JOLTS data showed slowing labor market; UST Ylds fell, with 2Yr hitting 3.82% - inflation beaten?; Jamie Dimon offers downbeat outlook</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 131.7;  Strong Mar SSS continue from JP retail - Fast Retailing 11.9% as Inbound demand recovers; Japanese Co's sorely lagging in Cybersecurity</li>
<li>NUGGET. Japan is fighting a losing battle for STEM talent. Demand is there - companies can pay, but legacy rigidities are hindering change and threatening the very survival of firms.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX broke 4 day winning streak as JOLTS data showed slowing labor market; UST Ylds fell, with 2Yr hitting 3.82% - inflation beaten?; Jamie Dimon offers downbeat outlook
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 131.7;  Strong Mar SSS continue from JP retail - Fast Retailing 11.9% as Inbound demand recovers; Japanese Co's sorely lagging in Cybersecurity
NUGGET. Japan is fighting a losing battle for STEM talent. Demand is there - companies can pay, but legacy rigidities are hindering change and threatening the very survival of firms.


Good Morning Japan |JOLTS Jolts Stocks; NUGGET: Battle for Talent - Japan’s Self Inflicted Wounds

Japan

The Kansai Electric Power Company, Incorporated generates electricity from hydroelectric, thermal, geothermal, and nuclear power sources.  The Company distributes electricity to Osaka and the surrounding Kansai area.  Kansai Electric also constructs and maintains electrical power facilities.

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Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP)

Ohayo Japan |SPX Flat;Crunch Time on the Debt; NUGGET: GX Promotion Law - Decarbonization Boom Ahead

SPX flat. US faces Default by June 1 if no Debt deal; NKY Futs +0.4% premium vs Cash; Japan to tighten rules on Semi exports to China; Kansai...

Mark Chadwick

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

$93 on $ACWI continues to be a key resistance that we have discussed since early-Jan as capping upside for 2023. Stick with defensives $IXJ $XLV...

Vermilion Research

Good Morning Japan |Fed's Bullard Offers Comfort; NUGGET: Kansai Electric- Watch the Nuke Restarts !

Bullard Calms Markets; ex-IMF Chief Economist Blanchard says BOJ to remain accomodative; Japanese Corporates doubles buying of own stocks

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |JOLTS Jolts Stocks; NUGGET: Battle for Talent - Japan’s Self Inflicted Wounds

US equites go Defensive on JOLTS jobs data; IN JAPAN, Strong Mar SSS continue from JP retail - Fast Retailing 11.9% as Inbound demand recovers;...

Mark Chadwick

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