AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research, AlphaSituations

Robert Sassoon

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research

AlphaSituations

Since its establishment, AlphaSituations has delivered a track record of outperformance with a hit rate of winners of more than 70% of its portfolio of ideas generating annualized average returns of 20%. In January 2022, AlphaSituations was contracted by Water Tower Research, an investor engagement and stakeholder communication platform to provide coverage of Special Situations

Event-Driven

The first major railroad merger transaction in North America in more than two decades has developed into a bidding war between the two major Canadian railroad operators - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canadian-national-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24515:1" rel="noopener">Canadian National Railway Co (CNI US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canadian-pacific-railway-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24519:1" rel="noopener">Canadian Pacific Railway (CP US)</a> - battling for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kansas-city-southern" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6157:1" rel="noopener">Kansas City Southern (KSU US)</a> as each look to exploit more fully the benefits of last year's inked USCMA.In our insight published on April 26, 2021 -MergerTalk: Kansas City Southern-Will Can National Derail Canadian Pacific's USCMA Strategy? - written prior to the termination by KSU's merger agreement with CP in favor of CNI, we suggested that should such a circumstance unfold (which it did), it would be unlikely that CP would sheepishly  give up on  its merger ambitions for which it has strongly argued the strategic value of its combination with KSU. despite its inferior financial firepower when compared with that of CNI.Following CP's raised counterbid, this follow-up insight considers what might happen next in this intriguing battle for a key North American railroad.

The first major railroad merger transaction in North America in more than two decades has developed into a bidding war between the two major Canadian railroad operators - Canadian National Railway Co (CNI US) and Canadian Pacific Railway (CP US) - battling for Kansas City Southern (KSU US) as each look to exploit more fully the benefits of last year's inked USCMA.In our insight published on April 26, 2021 -MergerTalk: Kansas City Southern-Will Can National Derail Canadian Pacific's USCMA Strategy? - written prior to the termination by KSU's merger agreement with CP in favor of CNI, we suggested that should such a circumstance unfold (which it did), it would be unlikely that CP would sheepishly  give up on  its merger ambitions for which it has strongly argued the strategic value of its combination with KSU. despite its inferior financial firepower when compared with that of CNI.Following CP's raised counterbid, this follow-up insight considers what might happen next in this intriguing battle for a key North American railroad. 

MergerTalk:Battle For Kansas-Will Canadian National Derail Canadian Pacific’s USCMA Strategy? Part 2

The first major railroad merger transaction in North America in more than two decades could develop into a bidding war between the two major Canadian railroad operators battling for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kansas-city-southern" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6157:1" rel="noopener">Kansas City Southern (KSU US)</a> as each look to exploit more fully the benefits of last year's inked USCMA. While there could be further surprises, we assess below why  it looks like the easy pickings from this battle may have been already picked from the perspective of arbs.

The first major railroad merger transaction in North America in more than two decades could develop into a bidding war between the two major Canadian railroad operators battling for Kansas City Southern (KSU US) as each look to exploit more fully the benefits of last year's inked USCMA. While there could be further surprises, we assess below why  it looks like the easy pickings from this battle may have been already picked from the perspective of arbs.

MergerTalk: Kansas City Southern-Will Canadian National Derail Canadian Pacific's USCMA Strategy?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We continue to believe that caution is warranted in U.S. equities and we are concerned that key support levels may not hold -- notably 2,800 and the 200-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 and 4,125 and the 200-day MA on the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500. In this report we highlight several negative developments which increase the likelihood of a breakdown below these key S&amp;P 500 support levels, as well as some attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Communications, Services, and Transportation.

We continue to believe that caution is warranted in U.S. equities and we are concerned that key support levels may not hold -- notably 2,800 and the 200-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 and 4,125 and the 200-day MA on the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500. In this report we highlight several negative developments which increase the likelihood of a breakdown below these key S&amp;P 500 support levels, as well as some attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Communications, Services, and Transportation.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Caution Warranted; Downgrading Materials

Both the cap- and equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 are trading at highs not seen since early October 2018 - a positive indication in itself. Additionally, key risk-on areas we highlighted in last week’s Compass (small-caps, Financials/Banks, and Transports) have outperformed off the recent lows - a welcomed sight for risk sentiment, and confirms out positive outlook. In today's report we highlight attractive bottom-fishing opportunities within the Financials Sector, and attractive Groups and stocks within Large- and Small-Cap Railroads, and Internet Software

Both the cap- and equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 are trading at highs not seen since early October 2018 - a positive indication in itself. Additionally, key risk-on areas we highlighted in last week’s Compass (small-caps, Financials/Banks, and Transports) have outperformed off the recent lows - a welcomed sight for risk sentiment, and confirms out positive outlook. In today's report we highlight attractive bottom-fishing opportunities within the Financials Sector, and attractive Groups and stocks within Large- and Small-Cap Railroads, and Internet Software

The S&amp;P 500’s steady uptrend remains intact. The large-cap (S&amp;P 500) vs. small-cap (S&amp;P 600) ratio is breaking out to multi-month highs; prompting our recommendation to shift to an overweight of large-caps. We are also seeing bullish price and RS inflections for developed int’l markets particularly due to strength in Japan, which helps support our bullish outlook for the U.S.  In addition to a complete strategy recap, we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Energy and Transportation Sectors.

The S&amp;P 500’s steady uptrend remains intact. The large-cap (S&amp;P 500) vs. small-cap (S&amp;P 600) ratio is breaking out to multi-month highs; prompting our recommendation to shift to an overweight of large-caps. We are also seeing bullish price and RS inflections for developed int’l markets particularly due to strength in Japan, which helps support our bullish outlook for the U.S.  In addition to a complete strategy recap, we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Energy and Transportation Sectors.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Shifting to Large-Cap Overweight, Energy Improving

United States

Kansas City Southern, through its subsidiary, is the holding company for transportation segment subsidiaries and affiliates.  The Company operates a railroad system that provides shippers with rail freight services in commercial and industrial markets of the United States and Mexico.

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Kansas City Southern (KSU US)

MergerTalk:Battle For Kansas-Will Canadian National Derail Canadian Pacific’s USCMA Strategy? Part 2

This situation has been largely played out for the arbs. However, this may be more of a story for long-term investors as a unique USCMA play.

Robert Sassoon

MergerTalk: Kansas City Southern-Will Canadian National Derail Canadian Pacific's USCMA Strategy?

A bid battle brewing on North America's rail tracks, but the easy pickings for the arbs in this may have already been collected

Robert Sassoon

U.S. Equity Strategy: Caution Warranted; Downgrading Materials

We continue to believe that caution is warranted in U.S. equities and we are concerned that key support levels may not hold -- notably 2,800 and...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Be Long & Carry On

Both the cap- and equal-weighted S&P 500 are trading at highs not seen since early October 2018 - a positive indication in itself....

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Shifting to Large-Cap Overweight, Energy Improving

The S&P 500’s steady uptrend remains intact. The large-cap (S&P 500) vs. small-cap (S&P 600) ratio is breaking out to multi-month...

Vermilion Research

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