Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The six banks under our coverage reported a combined net profit of Bt40.3bn in 4Q24, growing 11.4% YoY but declining 6.4% QoQ, which was in line with our expectations.</li><li>KKP and SCB outperformed expectations with net profits 21% and 19% higher than anticipated, respectively, mainly due to higher-than-expected non-interest income.</li><li>We maintain an Overweight investment rating on the banking sector, supported by a trend of declining provisioning expenses and a focus on capital management, which enhances the potential for dividend increases. </li></ul>

The six banks under our coverage reported a combined net profit of Bt40.3bn in 4Q24, growing 11.4% YoY but declining 6.4% QoQ, which was in line with our expectations.KKP and SCB outperformed expectations with net profits 21% and 19% higher than anticipated, respectively, mainly due to higher-than-expected non-interest income.We maintain an Overweight investment rating on the banking sector, supported by a trend of declining provisioning expenses and a focus on capital management, which enhances the potential for dividend increases. 

Banking - In-Line 4Q24 NP; Provisions to Fall in 2025E

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>KTC has just released its 4Q24 results and presentation, with a stand out diagram on BOT debt relief measures</li>
<li>With the several measures in place by the BOT, including lowering minimum card payment, lengthening loan term and lowering rate, there are clear stresses.</li>
<li>ROA is under pressure, and part of this will be due to rising credit costs, which are up from 470bps to 610bps from FY22 to FY24</li>
</ul>


KTC has just released its 4Q24 results and presentation, with a stand out diagram on BOT debt relief measures
With the several measures in place by the BOT, including lowering minimum card payment, lengthening loan term and lowering rate, there are clear stresses.
ROA is under pressure, and part of this will be due to rising credit costs, which are up from 470bps to 610bps from FY22 to FY24


KTC - Stresses in Thailand Mass Market Credit Cards, Clear in BOT Debt Relief Measures

<ul><li>The overall 4Q24E performance of the six banks under our coverage is not bad, with a combined net profit of Bt39.2bn, up 6.9% YoY due to a decline in provisioning.</li><li>However, the figure is expected to have fallen 10.3% QoQ, pressured by a reduction in NIM. Among the banks, KKP is expected to post the most notable YoY profit growth, driven by a significant drop in provisioning, while KBANK may have been the only bank likely to see provisioning decline both YoY and QoQ.</li><li>Looking ahead to 2025E, we prefer banks with a higher proportion of retail and SME loans. </li></ul>

The overall 4Q24E performance of the six banks under our coverage is not bad, with a combined net profit of Bt39.2bn, up 6.9% YoY due to a decline in provisioning.However, the figure is expected to have fallen 10.3% QoQ, pressured by a reduction in NIM. Among the banks, KKP is expected to post the most notable YoY profit growth, driven by a significant drop in provisioning, while KBANK may have been the only bank likely to see provisioning decline both YoY and QoQ.Looking ahead to 2025E, we prefer banks with a higher proportion of retail and SME loans. 

Banking: The Overall Profit Outlook for the Banking Sector in 4Q24E Is Not Bad

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>KTX expects the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to lower interest rates only if inflation falls significantly below the target range and the economy contracts more sharply than anticipated.</li><li>Otherwise, the bank is likely to maintain its current policy rate of 2.25%, citing similar justifications as before.</li><li>KTX maintains our recommendation for banking and insurance stocks, including SCB, TTB, KBANK, and BLA, as they are expected to benefit from stable interest rates throughout the year.</li></ul>

KTX expects the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to lower interest rates only if inflation falls significantly below the target range and the economy contracts more sharply than anticipated.Otherwise, the bank is likely to maintain its current policy rate of 2.25%, citing similar justifications as before.KTX maintains our recommendation for banking and insurance stocks, including SCB, TTB, KBANK, and BLA, as they are expected to benefit from stable interest rates throughout the year.

Economic Update: Inflation in December 2024

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jan 3rd.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD1.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Cal-Comp Electronics, JMT Network Services, VGI, Delta Electronics, CP ALL, Kasikornbank, SCC.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jan 3rd.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD1.9bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Cal-Comp Electronics, JMT Network Services, VGI, Delta Electronics, CP ALL, Kasikornbank, SCC.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jan 3rd): Cal-Comp Electronics, JMT Network Services, VGI

Thailand

Kasikornbank Public Company Limited provides commercial banking services including personal and commercial banking, international trade, as well as investment banking services, to its customers throughout Thailand.  The Bank has foreign branches in Los Angeles, Hong Kong, Cayman Islands, and Shenzhen; and representative offices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Kunmin.

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Kasikornbank (KBANK/F TB)

Banking - In-Line 4Q24 NP; Provisions to Fall in 2025E

The six banks under our coverage reported a combined net profit of Bt40.3bn in 4Q24, growing 11.4% YoY but declining 6.4% QoQ, which was in line...

Krungthai XSpring

KTC - Stresses in Thailand Mass Market Credit Cards, Clear in BOT Debt Relief Measures

KTC reveals granular detail for many Bank of Thailand relief measures on consumer debt, suggesting that credit metrics are very weak, and this is...

Daniel Tabbush

Banking: The Overall Profit Outlook for the Banking Sector in 4Q24E Is Not Bad

The overall 4Q24E performance of the six banks under our coverage is not bad, with a combined net profit of Bt39.2bn, up 6.9% YoY due to a decline...

Krungthai XSpring

Economic Update: Inflation in December 2024

KTX expects the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to lower interest rates only if inflation falls significantly below the target range and the economy...

Krungthai XSpring

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jan 3rd): Cal-Comp Electronics, JMT Network Services, VGI

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Cal-Comp Electronics, JMT Network Services, VGI,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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