New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>KMD Brands (KMD) reported an improved FY26 result, with underlying EBITDA (pre-IFRS 16) of NZ$42m coming in slightly ahead of the guidance range provided in July 2026 and more than doubling last year’s result of NZ$18m.</li><li>We still remain cautious on the execution of balance-sheet deleveraging ahead of the NZ$42m debt facility step-down in June 2027.</li><li>As such, while KMD offers medium-term value if it can execute on its turnaround (~8x FY28 PE), we continue to view the near-term risk-reward as balanced.</li></ul>

KMD Brands (KMD) reported an improved FY26 result, with underlying EBITDA (pre-IFRS 16) of NZ$42m coming in slightly ahead of the guidance range provided in July 2026 and more than doubling last year’s result of NZ$18m.We still remain cautious on the execution of balance-sheet deleveraging ahead of the NZ$42m debt facility step-down in June 2027.As such, while KMD offers medium-term value if it can execute on its turnaround (~8x FY28 PE), we continue to view the near-term risk-reward as balanced.

KMD Brands FY26 Result—The Slow Road to Recovery

<ul><li>KMD Brands (KMD) reported underlying EBITDA (pre-IFRS-16) of NZ$42.0m, +8% ahead of our expectations and +NZ$1m above the top end of earnings guidance provided in July 2026.</li><li>Net debt also came in below both the prior year and recently provided guidance at NZ$48.1m (guidance of NZ$63-66m).</li><li>KMD also took a NZ$463m impairment against its intangible assets (NZ$278m for RipCurl, NZ$147m for Kathmandu and NZ$37m for Oboz).</li></ul>

KMD Brands (KMD) reported underlying EBITDA (pre-IFRS-16) of NZ$42.0m, +8% ahead of our expectations and +NZ$1m above the top end of earnings guidance provided in July 2026.Net debt also came in below both the prior year and recently provided guidance at NZ$48.1m (guidance of NZ$63-66m).KMD also took a NZ$463m impairment against its intangible assets (NZ$278m for RipCurl, NZ$147m for Kathmandu and NZ$37m for Oboz).

KMD Brands (KMD) - FY26 Result - Initial Impressions

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>NZ retailers sourcing from China could benefit from excess manufacturing capacity and lower input costs.</li><li>A -1% reduction in China sourcing costs could increase sector gross profit dollars between +0.2% to +1.1%.</li><li>KMD Brands is better positioned to mitigate tariff-related headwinds than initially anticipated.</li></ul>

NZ retailers sourcing from China could benefit from excess manufacturing capacity and lower input costs.A -1% reduction in China sourcing costs could increase sector gross profit dollars between +0.2% to +1.1%.KMD Brands is better positioned to mitigate tariff-related headwinds than initially anticipated.

<ul><li>When should investors own listed retailers? Our analysis of over 50 listed retailers suggests that total shareholder returns are strongest when a retailer is in the Optimisation phase—when its store roll-out is complete but it continues to improve per-store profitability through gross profit dollar optimisation and cost control.</li><li>Retailers in our study historically delivered c.20% total shareholder return per year in Optimisation.</li><li>Retailers in the Growth phase (when rolling out stores) also delivered solid returns for investors of c.15% per year. </li></ul>

When should investors own listed retailers? Our analysis of over 50 listed retailers suggests that total shareholder returns are strongest when a retailer is in the Optimisation phase—when its store roll-out is complete but it continues to improve per-store profitability through gross profit dollar optimisation and cost control.Retailers in our study historically delivered c.20% total shareholder return per year in Optimisation.Retailers in the Growth phase (when rolling out stores) also delivered solid returns for investors of c.15% per year. 

<ul><li>If Christmas shopping has snuck up on you this year, don’t stress—we’re here to make it simple!</li><li>We've curated a comprehensive Christmas gift guide to offer a variety of ideas for all your family members at any budget.</li><li>Included in this year's top picks are a pickleball set for family fun, a stylish ‘W’ cap (with a donation to Wikipedia), an Oura Ring combining tech and self-care, and a Matakana Village picnic for those who cherish quality time and good wine.</li></ul>

If Christmas shopping has snuck up on you this year, don’t stress—we’re here to make it simple!We've curated a comprehensive Christmas gift guide to offer a variety of ideas for all your family members at any budget.Included in this year's top picks are a pickleball set for family fun, a stylish ‘W’ cap (with a donation to Wikipedia), an Oura Ring combining tech and self-care, and a Matakana Village picnic for those who cherish quality time and good wine.

Retail Sector Santa's Stocking: What's in Store for Christmas?

New Zealand

Kathmandu Holdings Ltd. provides clothing and equipment for the travel and adventure market. The Company operates retail locations throughout Australia and New Zealand.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Kathmandu Holdings (KMD NZ)

KMD Brands FY26 Result—The Slow Road to Recovery

KMD Brands (KMD) reported an improved FY26 result, with underlying EBITDA (pre-IFRS 16) of NZ$42m coming in slightly ahead of the guidance range...

Forsyth Barr

KMD Brands (KMD) - FY26 Result - Initial Impressions

KMD Brands (KMD) reported underlying EBITDA (pre-IFRS-16) of NZ$42.0m, +8% ahead of our expectations and +NZ$1m above the top end of earnings...

Forsyth Barr

Retail Rundown - Getting to the Source

NZ retailers sourcing from China could benefit from excess manufacturing capacity and lower input costs. A -1% reduction in China sourcing costs...

Forsyth Barr

Retail Rundown - Retailer Life Cycles

Retailers that transitioned from Maturity to Optimisation historically delivered c.27% shareholder return CAGR in the three years following their...

Forsyth Barr

Retail Sector Santa's Stocking: What's in Store for Christmas?

If Christmas shopping has snuck up on you this year, don’t stress—we’re here to make it simple! We've curated a comprehensive Christmas gift guide...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)