Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  Disinflation Trade on as US PPI provides more tailwinds; Rates, USD Fall; Equites rally, More China Stimulus Coming ? Ripple resolution spurs Crypto bid; AI Wars: Meta Updates BARD</li>
<li>JAPAN. Nikkei Futures +1% vs Cash; USDJPY 138; Set for Beta bid in Stocks; Blow out Fast Retailing numbers; Barclays see Sept BOJ tweek; Bullish Bank Initiations from UBS</li>
<li>NUGGET.  Hydrogen is a key part of JP Govt carbon zero strategy. We see KHI(7012) as a Hydrogen winner and see the recent pullback as a good entry opportunity</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  Disinflation Trade on as US PPI provides more tailwinds; Rates, USD Fall; Equites rally, More China Stimulus Coming ? Ripple resolution spurs Crypto bid; AI Wars: Meta Updates BARD
JAPAN. Nikkei Futures +1% vs Cash; USDJPY 138; Set for Beta bid in Stocks; Blow out Fast Retailing numbers; Barclays see Sept BOJ tweek; Bullish Bank Initiations from UBS
NUGGET.  Hydrogen is a key part of JP Govt carbon zero strategy. We see KHI(7012) as a Hydrogen winner and see the recent pullback as a good entry opportunity


Ohayo Japan| Lower Rates, Higher Stocks; Crypto Optimism; NUGGET: Hydrogen Future - KHI(7012)Revisit

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.</li>
<li>We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.
In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.
We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.


MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  US Equities Soar on Debt Resolution and Payrolls; Markets continue to price in Fed Pause; Leaks about China Property stimulus support sentiment; Saudi Arabia slashes oil output.</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +1.4% vs Cash;  JP bid to continue after US Rally; Inflation pushing households to stocks; Japan prioritizes hydrogen; Companies face a raft of proposals at June AGMs</li>
<li>NUGGET. Where Nvidia Goes, Advantest Follows; Advantest now simply just a proxy on Nvidia's share price</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  US Equities Soar on Debt Resolution and Payrolls; Markets continue to price in Fed Pause; Leaks about China Property stimulus support sentiment; Saudi Arabia slashes oil output.
JAPAN. NKY Futs +1.4% vs Cash;  JP bid to continue after US Rally; Inflation pushing households to stocks; Japan prioritizes hydrogen; Companies face a raft of proposals at June AGMs
NUGGET. Where Nvidia Goes, Advantest Follows; Advantest now simply just a proxy on Nvidia's share price


Ohayo Japan |Stocks Soar on Debt Resolution/Jobs/China; NUGGET: Where Nvidia Goes, Advantest Follows

<ul>
<li>It was a relatively quiet week for the broader index. However, there was a big sector shift towards tech and AI winners.</li>
<li>Japanese Heavy Equipment makers have technologies that will be in demand for decades. KHI trades below book. </li>
<li>As we head into AGM season, we take a look at interesting activist campaigns. </li>
</ul>


It was a relatively quiet week for the broader index. However, there was a big sector shift towards tech and AI winners.
Japanese Heavy Equipment makers have technologies that will be in demand for decades. KHI trades below book. 
As we head into AGM season, we take a look at interesting activist campaigns. 


Japan Weekly | Advantest, Ibiden, Kawasaki Heavy, SK Kaken, NCHD

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX reclaims 4000 level with 2nd day of gains; 8/11 SPX sectors up as VIX collapses; Fed Decision Day on Wed-Expect No surprises; INTEL headwinds on China curbs </li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.6% vs Cash; USDJPY 132. 4; Japan set to rally after the Spring  transition break;US accepts Japan's EV subsidy appeal=+ve auto parts; More inflation support from govt. </li>
<li>NUGGET. Asahi Kasai - M&amp;A Gone Bad, Writedown, Struggles Remain. Future profitability of the LiB Separator business in question. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX reclaims 4000 level with 2nd day of gains; 8/11 SPX sectors up as VIX collapses; Fed Decision Day on Wed-Expect No surprises; INTEL headwinds on China curbs 
JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.6% vs Cash; USDJPY 132. 4; Japan set to rally after the Spring  transition break;US accepts Japan's EV subsidy appeal=+ve auto parts; More inflation support from govt. 
NUGGET. Asahi Kasai - M&amp;A Gone Bad, Writedown, Struggles Remain. Future profitability of the LiB Separator business in question. 


Good Morning Japan |SPX Reclaims 4000! NUGGET: Asahi Kasei-M&A Gone Bad, Writedown, Struggles Remain

Japan

Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd. designs, develops, and manufactures transport equipment and industrial heavy machinery for military and commercial use.  The Company produces ships, railroad cars, aircraft engines and parts, hydraulic and gas turbines, submarine engines, boilers, and industrial robots.  Kawasaki Heavy Industries offers engineering and construction services to industrial plants.

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Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP)

Ohayo Japan| Lower Rates, Higher Stocks; Crypto Optimism; NUGGET: Hydrogen Future - KHI(7012)Revisit

Disinflation trade continues- Rates down, DXY down, Stocks up; Nikkei Futures +1% vs Cash; USDJPY 138; Set for Beta bid in Stocks; Blow out Fast...

Mark Chadwick

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM $TSM #Samsung $BABA; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece. $ACWI break above $93 and...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan |Stocks Soar on Debt Resolution/Jobs/China; NUGGET: Where Nvidia Goes, Advantest Follows

US Equites well bid as SPX closes up +1.5% on Debt relief/Strong payrolls. NKY Futs +1.4% vs Cash; Inflation pushing households to stocks;...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Weekly | Advantest, Ibiden, Kawasaki Heavy, SK Kaken, NCHD

Foreign investors continue to flood into the Japanese market. There are plenty of AI beneficiaries and plenty of old economy companies that have in...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |SPX Reclaims 4000! NUGGET: Asahi Kasei-M&A Gone Bad, Writedown, Struggles Remain

Japan is poised to rally after the Spring transition, as its stocks have taken a hit during the recent risk-off period. This has created many...

Mark Chadwick

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