Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Among the various industries, the banking sector could be negatively impacted if Lee Jae-Myung becomes the next President of Korea.</li>
<li>Lee Jae-Myung has pledged providing a "basic loan" of 10 million won per citizen which is likely to negatively impact the Korean banks since it lacks rigorous credit checks. </li>
<li>There is an increasing likelihood that Lee Jae-Myung could raise the pressure on local banks to share the responsibility of social policies by contributing more money to support them.</li>
</ul>


Among the various industries, the banking sector could be negatively impacted if Lee Jae-Myung becomes the next President of Korea.
Lee Jae-Myung has pledged providing a "basic loan" of 10 million won per citizen which is likely to negatively impact the Korean banks since it lacks rigorous credit checks. 
There is an increasing likelihood that Lee Jae-Myung could raise the pressure on local banks to share the responsibility of social policies by contributing more money to support them.


Lee Jae-Myung's Policies Likely to Negatively Impact Korean Banks

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Jul 25th. The aggregated holding was USD646.8bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,752mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Hanwha Aerospace, Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Ocean, Hyundai Motor, Celltrion.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Jul 25th. The aggregated holding was USD646.8bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,752mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Hanwha Aerospace, Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Ocean, Hyundai Motor, Celltrion.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 25th): Hanwha Aerospace, Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Ocean

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 26 September, the Korea Exchange announced that it is considering a <em><strong>"special rebalancing"</strong></em> of the Korea Value-Up Index in December 2024.</li>
<li>In our view, the probability of this special rebalancing occurring by the end of this year is high at about 85%+.</li>
<li>If there is a special rebalancing, KB Financial, Hana Financial, Samsung Life Insurance, SK Telecom, and KT could be considered the top candidates for inclusion. </li>
</ul>


On 26 September, the Korea Exchange announced that it is considering a "special rebalancing" of the Korea Value-Up Index in December 2024.
In our view, the probability of this special rebalancing occurring by the end of this year is high at about 85%+.
If there is a special rebalancing, KB Financial, Hana Financial, Samsung Life Insurance, SK Telecom, and KT could be considered the top candidates for inclusion. 


A Special Rebalancing Of Korea Value-Up Index Is Likely in December 2024

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we review the major equity indices in Korea in 2024 including KOSPI 200 and Korea Value Up Index. </li>
<li>Some alpha generating performances continue in terms of adding stocks to be included in the KOSPI 200 and reducing stocks that could be excluded.</li>
<li>Korea Value Up Index has been heavily promoted by the Korean Exchange this year. Korea Exchange plans to make special changes to the Korea Value-Up Index constituents on 20 December. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we review the major equity indices in Korea in 2024 including KOSPI 200 and Korea Value Up Index. 
Some alpha generating performances continue in terms of adding stocks to be included in the KOSPI 200 and reducing stocks that could be excluded.
Korea Value Up Index has been heavily promoted by the Korean Exchange this year. Korea Exchange plans to make special changes to the Korea Value-Up Index constituents on 20 December. 


A Review of Major Equity Indices in Korea in 2024

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>Headline NPL figures at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kb-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:718:1" rel="noopener">KB Financial (105560 KS)</a> are already of major concern rising by 49% in the past year to 3Q24</li>
<li>Granular loan classification data is of even greater concern, where substandard loans are up from KRW1,153bn to KRW1,715bn over the same period</li>
<li>This more benign bucket of NPLs well overshadows loss loans, can migration can mean a substantial rise in credit costs</li>
</ul>


Headline NPL figures at KB Financial (105560 KS) are already of major concern rising by 49% in the past year to 3Q24
Granular loan classification data is of even greater concern, where substandard loans are up from KRW1,153bn to KRW1,715bn over the same period
This more benign bucket of NPLs well overshadows loss loans, can migration can mean a substantial rise in credit costs


KB Financial - NPLs from KRW2.1tr to KRW3.1tr YoY Vs +6% Loans. Substandard Loans: Big Issue

South Korea

KB Financial Group Inc. (the "Company"), in accordance with Financial Holding Companies Act, was established on September 29, 2008, through stock transfer with the former shareholders of its subsidiaries including Kookmin Bank in order to provide management services and financing to associated companies. The headquarters are located at Seoul, Korea

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KB Financial (105560 KS)

Lee Jae-Myung's Policies Likely to Negatively Impact Korean Banks

Among the various industries, the banking sector could be negatively impacted if Lee Jae-Myung becomes the next President of Korea.

Douglas Kim

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 25th): Hanwha Aerospace, Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Ocean

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Hanwha Aerospace, Samsung Electronics, Hanwha...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A Special Rebalancing Of Korea Value-Up Index Is Likely in December 2024

KRX announced announced that a special rebalancing of 5 stocks to be included in the ‘Korea Value Up Index’ - KB Financial, Hana Financial, Hyundai...

Douglas Kim

A Review of Major Equity Indices in Korea in 2024

We review the major equity indices in Korea in 2024 including KOSPI 200 and Korea Value Up Index. KRX plans to make special changes to the Korea...

Douglas Kim

KB Financial - NPLs from KRW2.1tr to KRW3.1tr YoY Vs +6% Loans. Substandard Loans: Big Issue

KB Financial shows relatively benign credit costs, but NPLs are surging, and its substandard loan growth is especially high. Risks remain for much...

Daniel Tabbush

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